Many look at a map and think the World has been fully explored. Every Frontier known, every border drawn, no room left to grow.

But that map is 2D. Look down — the un-explored depths of the Ocean. Look up — the vast expanse of Space. Look north — the thawing ice expanding the Arctic opportunity.

Three interdependent Frontiers. All critical to the emerging New System.

The hegemon who controls these Spheres will control the System.

New System. New Spheres. New Opportunities.

SIGNAL

Weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine, someone cut the undersea Ocean cables running out of Svalbard — the point where the Arctic hands the Internet up to Space. That infrastructure is critical for the transmission of essentially all Internet data — from Amazon packages to the trillions of dollars that clear through SWIFT every day.

Nord Stream sabotage followed thereafter: “Just as key undersea 'Technology' cables were damaged, so were key undersea 'Energy' pipelines — no matter the actor or incentive, the importance is clear.”

The subsea cable-cutting sequence did not stop there. The Baltic Sea. The Taiwan Strait. Then the Red Sea… before the Iran escalation.

Svalbard ‘22 → Nord Stream ‘22 → Baltic ‘23–’24 → Taiwan Strait ‘24+ → Red Sea ‘25

Summary: Critical Infrastructure lives in the Ocean.

Just as there is a lot more to the un-explored depths below, there is equally abundant opportunity above.

Control of Space = Control of Communications = Control of War = Control of Security. Control is Strength; Lack of Control (Dependence) is Weakness.

The US Space Stack is deeply dependent upon SpaceX — hence why the hegemon ‘facilitated’ the funding. From May 2026: “The IPOs that are flowing are ones the hegemon wants funded — from Semiconductors to Space — purposefully inflating areas that are critical to National Security.”

SpaceX accounted for 87% of U.S. orbital launches in 2024 and controls nearly two-thirds of all active satellites — more than the rest of the world combined.

Punchline: SpaceX enables the underlying Technological feasibility of the Golden Dome; no SpaceX, no Golden Dome.

The most expensive missile shield in history hinges on one company.

China is building the mirror — CASC and LandSpace for rockets, BeiDou for navigation, Qianfan targeting 15K+ satellites by 2030. Thousands of AI-enabled satellites planned for orbit — solar powered, no cooling required.

The two Space stacks are becoming quite clear, choose your fighter:

Summary: Critical Infrastructure is increasingly being built in Space.

And the nexus of it all resides in the Arctic — where the Ocean and Space meet. Where key communications chokepoint sit. Where 90 billion barrels of oil and 1,670 trillion cubic feet of gas lay untapped. Where new trade routes are emerging enabled by ice that is now melting.

So what does a severed undersea cable have to do with a missile shield?

Everything.

Refresh from the Arctic piece, back in March 2025:

“The Battle for AI Supremacy — ‘Space Race 2.0’ within Cold War 2.0 — is composed of multiple building blocks (Semiconductors, Compute, Data, Algorithms) across multiple spheres (Arctic, Space, Ocean).”

All three Spheres contain critical elements necessary to strengthening and future-proofing each of the Pillars of Power: Technology, Energy, & Money.

That is why the hegemons are so keenly focused on these realms.

’s Hot War in Cold Place — different perspective, same conclusion.

IMPLICATION

Many attempt to rank the Three Spheres in importance. But they are inter-dependent, not interchangeable. The sum is greater than its parts.

One System encompassing Three Critical Spheres:

“AI is the 'operating system' that is both enabled by and accelerates the exploration of each of these spheres. And each sphere is a unique piece in the same overall Power puzzle.

The Arctic contains critical (Ocean/Space) connectivity points, the Ocean houses the subsea cable backbone, and Space hosts constellations of satellites — a massive interconnected Network that is foundational for all Communications, notably interplanetary.”

The Arctic is where Space touches the ground: polar ground stations, launch sites, radar arrays. The Ocean is the backbone the Arctic plugs into. Space connectivity depends upon Ocean infrastructure. All are interconnected. And AI is the operating system running across all three — simultaneously enabled by and enabling the exploration and expansion.

The Technology Revolution of today enables the Global Hegemon of tomorrow.

The Technology Pillar is the primary Pillar most focus on because of its clear role in History. He who asymmetrically leads in Technology typically wields the most Power and dictates the terms:

Of course, Energy and Money are equally important. Just like the Three Spheres, The Pillars of Power are inter-dependent. The Three Spheres unsurprisingly contain all Three Pillars of Power. The Power of Three.

While there is no dedicated deep-dive on the Ocean (yet), that does not mean it is not important. It is both the most critical ‘legacy’ Sphere of the old System, and an evolving Sphere bridging to the New System. As highlighted, it holds the subsea backbone — the physical Internet, sitting on the seabed. It holds critical minerals. And it’s structure creates the legacy Chokepoints that still set the terms of trade in the old System: Hormuz, Malacca, Panama.

But it is not static. Just as Technology touches Space and the Arctic, it is transforming the Ocean realm. Unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) create new ‘attack’ vectors in the depths. This is already happening, clear to those paying attention — First Attack By UUV, Ukraine’s ‘Sub Sea Baby’ Drone Blasted Russian Black Sea Kilo Submarine. But expect to see a lot more of it across all of the ‘hot-spots’ — Ukraine, Iran, Taiwan. Resilience and adaptability are key — Nature knows what it’s doing; the hegemon who best understands and incorporates this knowledge is likely to prevail.

New Spheres. New Chokepoints. Just as the Strait of Hormuz is the Chokepoint below, the Moon is the Chokepoint above — as below, so above.

Power is the game. National Security is the motif.

Control of Space = Control of Communications = Control of War = Control of Security. That chain is only as strong as its ground floor — the Arctic, with the backbone running beneath the sea. Which is why Greenland was never a bit, and why every serious Power is buying position in all three Spheres at once.

The Nation that controls the Arctic controls Space.

The Nation that controls Space controls the System.

None of this has to be a scarcity story. One asteroid is estimated to hold 10 quintillion dollars in resources. The Moon holds Helium-3. Space offers manufacturing conditions Earth physically cannot.

The New Spheres are where the next System gets built — how we distribute the ‘energy’ is up to us.

New System. New Spheres. New Opportunities.

CONTENT

Content to Dive Deeper into the insights above:

• PoP: The Arctic & Its Rising Importance — the first Sphere. Svalbard, Greenland, and the routes opening outside the Western system.

• PoP: Space & The New Frontier — the second. SpaceX, the Golden Dome, and the Abundance case.

• The Current Beneath the Chaos — where the New Chokepoints sit inside the System phase-transition.

• The Three Duties of Power: The Trump Admin Scorecard — the New Spheres scored as critical areas of focus.

Actions to Live Better:

• Contextualize the Sphere, not the headline. A cut cable in the Baltic is deeply interconnected to SpaceX’s accelerated launch plan.

• Follow the physical layer — cables, routes, ground stations, orbits. That is where control sits. Atoms enable bits. Over the next decade, Atoms > Bits; the pendulum is swinging.

• Trade the Scarcity frame for the Abundance one. The Frontiers only look zero-sum from inside the old System.

Every thing is changing, including the Critical Spheres to focus on.

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Change your mindset — scarcity to growth.

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Disclosures

This commentary has been prepared by AquaVis Advisors LLC (”AquaVis”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does it constitute investment advice or a recommendation to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, AquaVis makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

Any opinions or estimates expressed reflect personal views as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider this material as only one input in their decision-making process and should obtain independent financial, legal, and tax advice before making any investment decisions.

Investing in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and may be affected by changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, credit conditions, and the price or volatility of underlying assets. Certain investments may be speculative and are not suitable for all investors.

AquaVis may, from time to time, have long or short positions in securities or other financial instruments mentioned and may transact in such instruments without further notice.

The chain that turns attention into agency.

The most important ongoing battle of all is the one over your mind. Your attention. Your energy.

Turn off the noise. Go within. Awareness is step one.

SIGNAL

We’ve been trained to look to the external for information and validation.

But what happens when the external is corrupted — feedback loops broken, incentives misaligned?

Media is manipulated. Trust in mainstream media has been in a straight-line decline since ~2000 — right as the System shifted to serve the minority at the expense of the majority. Even the Boomers — who the System serves at the expense of the young — have started to lose faith.

Markets are blind. More than 100% of incremental capital flowing into public equity markets is allocated via passive — a thoughtless machine mechanically buying whatever is largest and going up, regardless of valuation. Meanwhile, levered exposure to US equity indices sits at all-time highs at exactly the most dangerous time.

“The paradox of risk is that protection is cheapest when the risk is highest, and most expensive when the risk is lowest.”

—

Both external evaluation mechanisms are broken. If the mirror is warped, stop trusting the reflection.

IMPLICATION

With many of the external sources (media) and evaluation mechanisms (markets) compromised, it is best to begin with the internal.

Go within. When the external is corrupted, the internal becomes the anchor. Intuition. The smell test. “I know it when I see it.” Common sense has become un-common because most are caught in the noise — dis-connected from themselves. Slow down. Step back. Re-connect. Things naturally fall into place.

Curate ruthlessly. You are the quality of your inputs. Root out the attention-suckers, the engagement machines built off virality and addiction. Avoid those seeking to capture your attention with complexity and fear. Focus on those seeking to nourish it — striving for enlightenment and empowerment over polarizing noise. Curate curate curate.

Direct or be directed. The era of unquestioned assumptions and blind passivity is over. Direct your attention, your mind, your money — or it will be directed for you.

If mindset could create this mess, why can’t it fix it?

Mindset sits at the foundation. Mindset is the problem and the solution. The dialectic at work.

Shift away from scarcity, selfish, short-term — toward abundance, collective, long-term. The individual mindset shift is the fractal that mirrors the sovereign one — and the lever that begins turning it.

Awareness → Understanding → Empowerment → Better Decisions → Brighter Future.

Time to wake up. Time to build.

CONTENT

Content to Dive Deeper into the insights above:

• Media, Markets, & Mindset — the parent deep-dive. The whys from the root.

• Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny (Part II) — the how + why of the mindset shift around 2000. Where the three S’s — selfish, scarcity, short-termism — were implanted.

• Stock Market Ownership & Control — the passive-machine mechanism, in full. The Concentration Cascade that follows.

• Tariffs (Part II) — the sovereign-level Wake Up Call. Where the System-level mindset pivot begins.

Actions to Live Better:

• Turn off the centralized media. Turn on your discernment.

• Audit your inputs — nourishing vs. capturing. Elevate the first; root out the second.

• Engage in con-structive discourse instead of de-structive dismissal. Fix the root; stop band-aiding the symptom.

Curate your inputs. Elevate your outcomes.

The old System — plagued by the suffocating scarcity mindset — is dead.

Time to build and shape the New with a mindset of sustainable abundance.

is one of the few paying attention. Not caught up in the linear old System trees.

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Change your mindset — scarcity to growth.

Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

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Disclosures

This commentary has been prepared by AquaVis Advisors LLC (”AquaVis”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does it constitute investment advice or a recommendation to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, AquaVis makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

Any opinions or estimates expressed reflect personal views as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider this material as only one input in their decision-making process and should obtain independent financial, legal, and tax advice before making any investment decisions.

Investing in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and may be affected by changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, credit conditions, and the price or volatility of underlying assets. Certain investments may be speculative and are not suitable for all investors.

AquaVis may, from time to time, have long or short positions in securities or other financial instruments mentioned and may transact in such instruments without further notice.

Concentration today is above the 1970’s Nifty-Fifty peak. Nearly 2x the dot-com peak. Built over 30 years. It will likely not take 30 to unwind.

Every thing moves in waves. The graph above is a great long-form example.

Balance was reached in the 1990s — the Golden Age, a concentration trough. The old System was subverted by adversaries and co-opted elites in the late 1990s. Excesses have been built up by the re-direction of flows over the last ~30 years. Ultimately pushing concentration to observable extremes, reaching a crescendo as we speak.

Now the old System is ending, the New System is emerging. The Concentration Wave is Cresting. The cascade will be non-linear.

SIGNAL

The Concentration Cascade goes a lot deeper than just the stock market — it is deeply embedded into the foundation of the System. Downstream manifestations of Decisions by leaders.

Pendulums have swung to incredible extremes across the System — from wealth concentration in society, to company concentration in the stock market.

All of this is deeply interconnected and directly observable if you understand the foundation from first principles.

We laid out this interconnectivity clearly in the Concentration Cascade piece — which looks at the downstream implications of the foundational System Decisions.

Both the sequencing and the critical cascade catalyst watchlist were explicit in the February piece.

The signs have been building.

Those in the know have been pillaging on the way out.

Changing the rules to accelerate the process.

And now the signals we’ve been waiting for are here.

Open source models ramping.

Bubble warnings beginning to percolate.

Government-affiliated companies highlighting the shift.

The disparate dots are there if you know where to look.

IMPLICATION

Time to pay intentional attention.

Time to audit ‘thoughtless’ passive index exposure.

Time to stress-test what an AI unwind does to your portfolio.

The old System is ending. The New System is being built. The swinging of this pendulum the other way will not be linear.

For anyone who wants to be prepared, we’ve laid it all out.

Read the content below to truly both understand the implications and how to do something about it.

CONTENT

Framework. This first piece below lays out how the stock market actually works, why we see such heavy concentration today, and why this extreme is incredibly dangerous:

• The System Series: Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny (Part III) - Stock Market Composition: Stock Market Fractal - The Concentration Cascade & The Diversification Illusion

Application. If after understanding the above, you want a structure that actually works across time - instead of blindly relying upon a mindless passive index - check out this series below:

• The Pillars of Power Portfolio - Series: The Application Layer

  • The Pillars of Power Portfolio — inaugural deep-dive piece (4/1/2026)

  • The Pillars of Power Portfolio - Update — update piece (5/20/2026)

  • Re-Balancing at Extremes: PoP Portfolio Pivot Points — update piece (6/18/2026)

  • Overview thread for The Pillars of Power Portfolio — overview X thread

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Change your mindset – scarcity to growth.

Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

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Short notes: Substack notes

Videos & Podcasts: YouTube

Tweets: X

Visuals: Instagram

Website: AquaVis

Disclosures

This commentary has been prepared by AquaVis Advisors LLC (“AquaVis”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does it constitute investment advice or a recommendation to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, AquaVis makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

Any opinions or estimates expressed reflect personal views as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider this material as only one input in their decision-making process and should obtain independent financial, legal, and tax advice before making any investment decisions.

Investing in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and may be affected by changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, credit conditions, and the price or volatility of underlying assets. Certain investments may be speculative and are not suitable for all investors.

AquaVis may, from time to time, have long or short positions in securities or other financial instruments mentioned and may transact in such instruments without further notice.

SIGNAL

The US sent Production and the related Productive Labor Force overseas — primarily to China — over the last ~30 years.

China became the Producer of the World.

The US became the Consumer of the World.

Interconnectivity and dependencies rose — so much so they became National Security concerns.

IMPLICATION

Critical Product Production has to come home.

Non-Critical Product Production is likely to stay overseas.

The opportunity for the Peaceful Re-Balancing — envisioned back in April 2025 — is here.

And it’s right on time.

The US & China have now set up bilateral groups to help facilitate this Peaceful Re-Balancing envisioned over a year ago:

• Board of Trade - continuing and expanding trade in Non-Critical areas (like our lovely rubber ducks) — a critical distinction created 1 year ago in the Tariffs piece.

• Board of Investment - evaluating opportunities for Chinese ‘surplus’ investment into US Productive Capacity (atoms), instead of just ‘bits’ (Treasuries, Stocks, et al).

What happens on the margin is what matters.

The US has clearly begun it’s re-building of it’s Critical Product Production agenda.

We will see how China decides to handle the invigoration of Consumption — but isn’t it interesting we are now hearing leaders say the Yuan is under-valued?

AquaVis has a Framework and this all fits directly into it (#Multi-Year-Mar-a-Lago-Accord).

The old System is dead. This is the beginning of the New System.

We need to shape it — and what better time than now? Make the next 250 years better than the last.

CONTENT

Content to Dive Deeper into the insights above:

• The System Series: Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny (Part II) - The Degradation of US Hegemony, Shipping US Power to China

• The System Series: Tariffs (Part II) - Tariffs & The Re-Balancing of the Global System

• The Peaceful Re-Balancing in Motion - Forecasted over a year ago, the July Crescendo & the New System most are missing

Actions to Live Better:

Change requires a shift in the underlying Mindset.

• Away from the zero-sum — scarcity, selfish, short-term

• Toward the Non-Zero-Sum — Abundance, Collective, Long-Term

gets it.

The old System — plagued by the suffocating scarcity mindset — is dead.

Time to build and shape the New with a mindset of sustainable abundance.

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Change your mindset – scarcity to growth.

Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

Deep-dives: Substack

Short notes: Substack notes

Videos & Podcasts: YouTube

Tweets: X

Website: AquaVis

Disclosures

This commentary has been prepared by AquaVis Advisors LLC (“AquaVis”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does it constitute investment advice or a recommendation to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, AquaVis makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

Any opinions or estimates expressed reflect personal views as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider this material as only one input in their decision-making process and should obtain independent financial, legal, and tax advice before making any investment decisions.

Investing in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and may be affected by changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, credit conditions, and the price or volatility of underlying assets. Certain investments may be speculative and are not suitable for all investors.

AquaVis may, from time to time, have long or short positions in securities or other financial instruments mentioned and may transact in such instruments without further notice.

Perfect time to go full circle — tying the prescient Tariffs piece from over a year ago, to Bessent’s powerful ‘America turns 250’ speech this week.

The symmetry is clear: Control over Critical Product Production is critical.

The AquaVis forecasts laid out 15+ months ago continue to manifest — there is a Current Beneath the Chaos.

VISUAL

Zoom in on The Matrix

SIGNAL

The core of Bessent’s recent speech: if you do not control the areas required for survival you are not free.

“…the nation that cannot produce what it needs is not truly secure. The nation that depends on its adversaries for critical inputs is not truly sovereign. And the nation that reduces its economics to consumption is not truly prosperous”

— Scott Bessent, Secretary of Treasury at The Economic Club of New York’s America 250 Gala Dinner (June 23, 2026)

Sounds eerily familiar…

“For Countries that are Adversaries, the negotiations are more complex. Both sides recognize the unsustainability of the old System, but both sides also want to strengthen their Pillars of Power within the new System. Both sides want full Control over the Production of Critical Products to reduce external dependencies (Chokepoints) and bolster National Security. Non-Critical Products are simply a bargaining chip – for example, the US will ultimately not care if China produces all of the World’s rubber ducks. But it absolutely would care if China produces all of the World’s food – an example for illustrative purposes.

If your primary Adversary (China) solely produces Critical Products that you need to survive, does that seem sustainable and/or intelligent? Sounds like a Chokepoint – and Chokepoints on Critical Products (e.g., Rare Earth Minerals) that are key components of the Pillars of Power represent very dangerous dependencies that reduce your Control and Power…

Needless to say, National Security priorities trump Luxury Consumption – don’t think a 0dte option holds much weight in the battlefield. Controlling Money absolutely does enable a layer of Control – it is unequivocally a Pillar of Power. But when the Money is not backed by any sustainable Physical Power – via asymmetric Technology, Productive Capacity to Build it, and Energy to Power it – it’s empty. Always work from First Principles; the Foundation. If you don’t have food, water, shelter, and safety – do you really need 15 different day trading apps for Fartcoin?

Take a second (ideally more) to just think. What the Money is for. Where the Money is being allocated. Power Posturing and Deterrence are empty threats if you do not have the means (Productive Capacity) to enforce them. Where Money flows will dictate the Power Peking Order for the decades ahead – don’t expect to see another 12 dog apps get funding; do expect to see the construction of massive robotics factories.”

— AquaVis: The System Series: Tariffs (Part II) (May 25, 2025)

INSIGHT

The National Security motif goes on.

The simple point?

Critical Product Production is critical to control if you want true sovereignty.

Non-Critical Production can be anywhere.

The pendulums simply shifted too far — so much so they created National Security vulnerabilities.

This is why Tariffs matter. This is why reshoring matters.

This is the re-direction of energy toward areas that matter. The Critical components of National Security. The Foundation — the base of the pyramid.

This is why ending the old System had to happen. This is why building the New System thoughtfully is critical for the future.

Flows shape form.

The old form no longer served. Those flows were ended. They have been re-directed to shape a New form.

AquaVis laid this out in early 2025. And each element continues to manifest in sequence.

To better understand all of this, check out the content below the surface — from threads that connect the dots, to deep-dive content to understand everything from first principles.

CONTENT TO DIVE DEEPER

Threads:

Deep-Dive Content:

HOW WE GOT HERE

• The System Series: Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny (Part III) - Corporates - Corporate Fractal: The Financialization Flywheel & The Stifling of Innovation

THE CATALYST TO RESHAPE FLOWS

• The System Series: Tariffs (Part II) - Tariffs & The Re-Balancing of the Global System

• The System Series: Tariffs (Part II) (companion) - Companion materials to the Tariffs piece: video, audio, infographic, slide deck, & thread

THE BEGINNING OF REDIRECTED FLOWS

• The Peaceful Re-Balancing in Motion - The July Crescendo & the New System most are missing

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Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

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Videos & Podcasts: YouTube

Tweets: X

Website: AquaVis

Disclosures

This commentary has been prepared by AquaVis Advisors LLC (“AquaVis”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does it constitute investment advice or a recommendation to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, AquaVis makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

Any opinions or estimates expressed reflect personal views as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider this material as only one input in their decision-making process and should obtain independent financial, legal, and tax advice before making any investment decisions.

Investing in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and may be affected by changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, credit conditions, and the price or volatility of underlying assets. Certain investments may be speculative and are not suitable for all investors.

AquaVis may, from time to time, have long or short positions in securities or other financial instruments mentioned and may transact in such instruments without further notice.

This an independent exemplification of The Pillars of Power in action: Technology (AI) & Energy leading the Market.

Money — the third Pillar — will likely make a showing again soon. Remember, gold alone was up 65% in 2025… with a lot more opportunity down-the-funnel.

An equal-weighted untouched Technology (XLK), Energy (XLE), and Money (GLD) portfolio — the absolute simplest expression of the PoP Portfolio — was up almost 2x the market with better statistics across the board over this same time period.

No re-balancing at extremes. No strategic weighting. No use of signals. No down-the-funnel positive convexity plays. Nothing. No optimization — just 3 ETFs on January 1, 2025 and nothing else, and this is the simplistic output summary:

Don’t overcomplicate this.

Find a framework that actually works.

The Pillars of Power work.

As both a Framework to understand the World.

And a Portfolio structure to harness your Money.

Do not simply accept this blindly. Trust but verify.

Check the actual transparent track record of both over the last ~18 months:

• See The Current Beneath the Chaos for the Framework’s scorecard

• See Re-Balancing at Extremes for the Portfolio’s scorecard

Most ‘experts’ have missed the entire connected sequence under the surface and the downstream ways to play it.

That incorrectness — often stemming from biases that blind — negatively compounds:

• Wrong views of the world — mis-directing your attention & dis-ordering your mind

• Wrong views of the market — mis-allocating your money

Transparency and accountability are critical — particularly with areas as foundational as this. Your time, energy, and money are important — do not waste them.

Time to remove the linear ‘experts’ still clinging to frameworks and applications for a world that no longer exists.

And time to replace them with frameworks and applications that actually work.

To better understand the Pillars of Power Portfolio as a directly usable application layer start here:

• The Pillars of Power Portfolio — inaugural deep-dive piece (4/1/2026)

• The Pillars of Power Portfolio - Update — update piece (5/20/2026)

• Re-Balancing at Extremes: PoP Portfolio Pivot Points — update piece (6/18/2026)

• Overview thread for The Pillars of Power Portfolio — overview X thread

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Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

Deep-dives: Substack

Short notes: Substack notes

Videos & Podcasts: YouTube

Tweets: X

Website: AquaVis

Disclosures

This commentary has been prepared by AquaVis Advisors LLC (“AquaVis”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does it constitute investment advice or a recommendation to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, AquaVis makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

Any opinions or estimates expressed reflect personal views as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider this material as only one input in their decision-making process and should obtain independent financial, legal, and tax advice before making any investment decisions.

Investing in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and may be affected by changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, credit conditions, and the price or volatility of underlying assets. Certain investments may be speculative and are not suitable for all investors.

AquaVis may, from time to time, have long or short positions in securities or other financial instruments mentioned and may transact in such instruments without further notice.

1. Interconnected Flywheels All the Way Down: An overview of the key AquaVis Frameworks, all designed following Nature as a template.

2. The Three Duties of Power: A key AquaVis Framework built to guide leaders — and a standard by which to evaluate them.

   Frameworks should not just be static words on a page.

   They should be actionable structures applicable in reality.

3. The Three Duties of Power: The Trump Admin Scorecard: Now that we have the Framework — an objective standard to guide leaders and hold them accountable — let’s use it: time to evaluate the Trump Admin’s first ~18 months.

All three are important pieces — two Foundational pieces, and one direct Framework application.

Additional steps toward the end goal.

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Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

Deep-dives: Substack

Short notes: Substack notes

Videos & Podcasts: YouTube

Tweets: X

Website: AquaVis

Disclosures

This commentary has been prepared by AquaVis Advisors LLC (“AquaVis”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does it constitute investment advice or a recommendation to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, AquaVis makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

Any opinions or estimates expressed reflect personal views as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider this material as only one input in their decision-making process and should obtain independent financial, legal, and tax advice before making any investment decisions.

Investing in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and may be affected by changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, credit conditions, and the price or volatility of underlying assets. Certain investments may be speculative and are not suitable for all investors.

AquaVis may, from time to time, have long or short positions in securities or other financial instruments mentioned and may transact in such instruments without further notice.

• The Pillars of Power — Technology, Energy, Money — double as a naturally-balancing portfolio

• You don’t day-trade it. You re-balance at extremes: when one Pillar runs too far, too fast and gets ‘too big,’ you re-balance. High discipline, low maintenance

• Volatility = Opportunity for those prepared with a proven Process

• The Pillars of Power serves as the foundation of the Process as both a:

  • Framework — to help you direct your attention, connect the dots, and better forecast what’s coming: Order Your Mind. Direct Your Attention

  • Portfolio — a direct application of that Framework: Harness Your Money

• The Universe and underlying Portfolio are focused where the hegemon is focused — narrowing in on areas where energy is directly flowing

• The Pillars are the structure. You choose how to use it and fill it out.

  • You can stay at the top-of-the-funnel with the basic ETFs

    • Simplest version — equal-weight XLK + XLE + GLD with no re-balancing — is +~20% vs. SPY +~10% YTD; ~2x the market, with better risk metrics

  • Layer on the re-balancing signals to ‘right size’ at pivot points — directing flows toward positive asymmetry

  • Move down-the-funnel to hunt for asymmetric opportunities within each Pillar, to express that positive convexity more intentionally

• Over the last ~15 months, there were 4 very simple signal-generated ‘legs’:

  • Apr 2025 - Nov 2025: XLK up ~60% (OW Technology)

  • Jul 2025 - Jan 2025: GLD up ~60% (OW Money)

  • Nov 2025 - Mar 2025: XLE over XLK up ~60% (OW Energy over Technology)

  • Mar 2025 - May 2025: XLK over XLE up ~60% (OW Technology over Energy)

  • 4 separate (incredibly symmetrical) opportunities at the index level requiring less than 10 trades — with more positive convexity under the surface

• Volatility is picking up as the old System ends and the New System emerges — more pivot points than typical in a compressed period is itself a key signal

• The Pillars provide the Framework to keep you prepared, and the Portfolio structure to transform that preparation into action

INTRO

The last ~18 months have been volatile across both the System and the Markets.

In both directions: progress and setbacks, ups and downs, accelerations and reversals.

In the System: Most saw chaos, and missed the current beneath the surface: The Current Beneath the Chaos.

In the Markets: Most chased headlines, and missed the rotations beneath the index: this piece is focused on those pivot points.

Because the underlying volatility in both places stems from the same source — the System is undergoing a phase transition: The End of the old & The Beginning of the New.

While the old System is built to trap you — using complexity to control.

The Pillars of Power is built to guide you — using simplicity to empower.

Simple is not the same as easy. It requires discipline and earned understanding.

But rather than wasting your time and energy chasing the manufactured noise, the Framework provides a filter —helping you intentionally focus on the underlying signal.

To re-frame volatility away from “risk” and toward its more applicable meaning:

• Opportunity for the prepared.

• Danger for the un-prepared.

Let’s walk through the major Pillars of Power Portfolio pivot points over the last year+…

THE MAJOR PIVOTS

• Early Apr 2025 — OW Technology Pillar

  • Signal: Technology positive asymmetry

  • Action: Technology Overweight (OW); down-the-funnel focus on bottlenecks within Phase 1 — the AI Infrastructure layer

  • Context: The Technology Pillar is the center of hegemonic focus because the winner of Technological Revolutions historically determines who the hegemon is — thus the AI Race is The race to establish Power and control the next Global World Order. ‘The Technology (AI) Race is The Race’

    • The down-the-funnel focus was on Phase 1 - the Infrastructure — you need to build the tracks before the trains, Compute before the Applications (Phase 2)

    • When the System is building new tracks, focus where the capital, policy, and strategic intent are flowing

• Early Jul 2025 — OW the Money Pillar

  • Signal: Money positive asymmetry

  • Action: Money Overweight (OW); down-the-funnel focus precious metals and miners

  • Context: The Money Pillar restructuring has begun in the background, with a new architecture beginning to take shape under the surface. Gold was re-classified as a Tier 1 High Quality Liquid Asset, the GENIUS Act passed, et al. — all part of the Multi-Year Mar-a-Lago Accord

• Early Nov 2025 — Re-balance: reduce Technology, increase Energy (OW)

  • Signal: Technology extended on the upside and large; Energy extended on the downside and small

  • Action: Reduce Technology, increase Energy — move toward balance + direct flows toward the positive asymmetry

  • Context: Technology had a significant run from the April bottom, while Energy was lagging. Trump/Xi/Putin all met leading up to the November pivot; Big Money was given the signal, observable in the flows

  • Result: Technology Pillar (XLK): +~65% from Apr 2025 signal to Nov 2025 signal

• Late Jan 2026 — Reduce the Money Pillar

  • Signal: Money extended on the upside and large

  • Action: Reduce Money; positive asymmetry compressed

  • Context: After a ~6-month run, a blow-off local top developed in January across the precious metals complex — with sentiment, positioning and other extreme signals all triggering

  • Result: Money Pillar (GLD): +~60% from Jul 2025 signal to Jan 2026 signal

• ~Mid Mar 2026 — Oil Peaking, near Peak Escalation Fear

  • Signal: Oil blow-off local top — Energy complex beginning to get extended on upside, Technology on downside

  • Action: Begin to reduce Energy and allocate toward Technology

  • Context: Internal + external signals stacking, with Big Money rotating, March 9 oil local top call, magazine covers as contra-indicators, record extremes in oil/energy positioning, and overall peak escalation fear. AquaVis specific call out on March 9th highlighting near peak escalation + at peak oil

• Late Mar 2026 — Re-balance: reduce Energy, increase Technology (OW)

  • Signal: Energy extended on the upside and large; Technology extended on the downside and small (literally a flip from early November)

  • Action: Reduce Energy, increase Technology — move toward balance + direct flows toward the positive asymmetry

  • Context: All of the above mid Mar signals reached a crescendo to close the month, with both sentiment and positioning reaching extremes in both Energy and Technology.

    • Focused down-the-funnel in the Technology Pillar amidst the fear. A few names where the hegemon is directly focused: ONTO (Advanced Packaging bottleneck), GNRC (domestic power/grid), INTC (parallel-West semi mfg)

  • Result: Nov 2025 signal through Mar 2026 signal: Energy (XLE) +~45%, Technology (XLK) ~-15% → ~60%+ point spread over 4 months

• Early Apr 2026 — Reiterate: ‘Energy OW has run it’s course; Technology to lead’

  • Context: While most were calling for the end of the world, oil to infinity, and massive escalation — AquaVis followed the PoP Framework for the understanding, the Portfolio for the signals, and inner intuition for the confluence

  • Not only offering the idea, but also an underlying direct application — the ‘dual-use’ of the Pillars of Power in action

• Early May 2026 — Geographic Call-out: Continue to favor US over the RoW

  • Context: Many international markets looked extended and/or vulnerable relative to the US, with related signals triggering

    • Out of Focus / UW: “Germany (EWG), Japan (EWJ), Canada (EWC), Mexico (EWW), France (EWQ) among others — peaked or in the process of peaking over the coming months, notably relative to the US”

    • In Focus / OW: Argentina (ARGT) and Peru (EPU)

  • Reminder — AquaVis does not invest in adversaries (e.g., China, Russia) unless/until they choose to join the New System and play by the rules

• Mid May 2026 — Signals building for Technology reduction

  • Signal: Technology complex beginning to get extended on upside

  • Action: Begin to reduce Technology down-the-funnel names; no longer positively asymmetric

  • Context: Similar to Energy in mid-March, signals started to stack: Extreme moves under the surface (Intel up over 200% in 6 weeks); Cerebras IPO, accelerated SpaceX IPO, rule-changes to facilitate insider selling. General view — pullback ahead of a likely blow-off top in the summer, around the July 4, 2026 crescendo — Policy support (RMP liquidity, OBBBA) still in place, for now

  • Result: Down-the-funnel (late March → mid May): GNRC +~50%, ONTO +~60%, INTC +200%+ — the asymmetric expression of the Tech OW no longer convex

    • As of May 19th close: “If all you did was buy an equal proportion of XLK, XLE, and GLD on January 2nd — you’d be up ~21%, almost 3x the market, with much better metrics.”

      

• Late May 2026 — Re-balance: reduce Technology, increase Money (OW)

  • Signal: Technology extended on the upside and large; Money extended on the downside and small

  • Action: Reduce Technology, increase Money — move toward balance + direct flows toward the positive asymmetry

  • Context: Started by reducing the down-the-funnel Technology plays under the surface on extreme moves. Then moved toward index re-balance on the crescendo of signals at month end.

  • Result: Mar 2026 signal through May 2026 signal: Technology (XLK) up ~50%, Energy (XLE) down ~10% → ~60%+ point spread in 2 months

    • Over 6 months, all you needed to do was rotate once to catch 2 separate 60% legs at the index level:

      • Nov 2025 - Mar 2026: Long XLE, Short XLK = +~60%

      • Apr 2026 - May 2026: Long XLK, Short XLE = +~60%

    • Incredible symmetry in the legs. Additionally, notice the signal timing is compressing — indicative of end-of-System dynamics.

• Late May / early Jun 2026: Money Pillar OW + Market Broadening Signal

  • Context: The latest signal increased exposure to the Money Pillar, and reduced Technology — with plenty of opportunities under the surface of each. With the additional expectation of a broadening out in the market.

  • From May 26, 2026: The Peaceful Re-Balancing in Motion:

    

• You can see how having the Pillars of Power Framework to better connect the dots and understand the World, directly helps with both forecasting what is likely to come and the downstream impacts and opportunities for a Portfolio. Translating forecasts (ideas) directly into portfolio construction (applications): Pillars of Power dual-use

  • Before:

  • After:

• Mid Jun 2026: Remain focused on Money and Technology

  • Context: The checklist above (oil down, rates down, et al.) playing out. The Fed holding rates steady benefits (cash-rich) Technology for now. The Money Pillar should begin to benefit as the short-end comes down — which is likely as oil (and inflation) reset. Kevin Warsh is continuing the systematic dismantling of the old System — making the previously ‘invisible’ architecture shifts in the background now more visible. The Technology & Energy Pillar re-vamps have been obvious. Expect the Money Pillar re-vamp — the Multi-Year Mar-a-Lago Accord — to become visible over the coming months.

WHY IT WORKS

• The Pillars of Power as a Framework provides the understanding:

  • Where to direct your attention (cutting out the noise)

  • How to interpret the signal (a contextual framing)

  • To ultimately better forecast what is likely coming next

• The Pillars of Power as a Portfolio provides the application:

  • How to turn that understanding into a simple structure that you choose how to fill out — to more intentionally harness your Money

• Three Pillars = a focused universe

  • You only have to recognize extremes in three flows, not three thousand tickers. The Universe is as simple or as complicated as you decide

• All three Pillars rotate — Tech ↔ Energy ↔ Money — re-balance at extremes; use the proprietary signals for more precision

  • Extremes have a recognizable fingerprint: media saturation (exit liquidity), record positioning, magazine covers, rule changes, underlying volume rotations

• Re-balancing provides discipline — always shifting your energy (Money) toward positive asymmetric opportunities

• If you want to express the view more intentionally, going down-the-funnel inside the over-weighted Pillar provides the potential to expand the asymmetry

  • e.g., Technology → Semis → Semicap → Advanced Packaging → ONTO

  • You can start/stop on whichever layer you prefer — whether it’s XLK or the industry (SMH in this example), or all the way down the funnel at a single-name (ONTO in this example)

• From a high level, the opposite end of each Pendulum is where I am focused — we’ve reached one extreme, now we’re set to shift toward Balance, benefitting the other extreme on the margin — #positiveasymmetry

  

THE SIMPLE STRUCTURE

A summary and a reminder from the foundation piece.

The Pillars of Power — Technology, Energy, Money — double as a naturally balancing portfolio.

The simplest expression:

• Technology = XLK

• Energy = XLE

• Money = GLD

Three Pillars. Three flows. One focused universe.

You do not need to track three thousand tickers to understand where Power is flowing.

You need to understand the Pillars. Then observe for extremes.

A form with fluidity within.

The Portfolio is not designed to be high maintenance. You do not day-trade it. You re-balance at extremes:

• When one Pillar runs too far, too fast, and gets too large, you reduce it

• When another Pillar becomes compressed, under-owned, and positively asymmetric, you increase it

Simple does not mean easy.

Simple requires discipline.

Simple requires intentional focus to understand.

As you get more comfortable, you can begin to move down-the-funnel to expand the potential asymmetry.

In practice, once the OW Pillar is identified, you can move down-the-funnel within that Pillar to find the most powerful ‘pure’ expression. Using the Semiconductor example here, but this works with any identified industry within the Pillar.

Technology (XLK) → Semiconductors (SMH) → Semiconductor Capital Equipment → Advanced Packaging → ONTO

Energy → Power → Grid → Domestic resilience

Money → Gold → precious metals → miners

The broad Pillar gives the direction. The funnel gives the expression. The re-balance gives the discipline.

The process can be as simple or as complex as you choose. Using the two extremes:

You can simply own the ETF near the top-of-the-funnel.

Or

Head all the way to the bottom — drilling down to exactly where the hegemon is focused. Pair that analysis with the confluence of major waves (AI scaling, de-globalization, reshoring). Then own the fastest-growing spot (typically a bottleneck) inside the growing segment. That’s where the underlying convexity lives.

AquaVis has a more robust end-to-end process for moving from top to bottom, but there is beauty in simplicity.

• Pillar.

• Funnel.

• Bottleneck.

• Asymmetry.

• Re-balance.

• Repeat.

The Pillars are the structure. You choose how to fill it out.

THE SIMPLE POINT

The Pillars of Power Portfolio is not about performance chasing.

It is about alignment.

• Aligning your attention with the flows of Power

• Aligning your portfolio with the areas where the hegemon is focused

• Aligning your horizon with long-term compounding instead of short-term trading

• Aligning your process with discipline instead of emotion

The old System stifled change — suppressing energy for decades.

The New System will unleash that pent up energy — driving downstream innovation, disruption, and renewal.

The old-to-New System phase transition is already creating a lot of volatility: Opportunity for the prepared.

Amidst the chaos, it’s important to have a process to stay anchored.

The Pillars of Power as a Framework helps you Order your Mind and Direct your Attention.

The Pillars of Power as a Portfolio helps you Harness your Money.

Together, they turn turbulence and dis-order into something more understandable.

A structure for order. A map for movement. A guide for navigating change.

Not perfectly predictive. But leaving you more intentionally prepared.

The purpose of the Framework is not to react to every ripple.

It is to know which river you are in.

To recognize the direction of the flow.

And when the current turns, to flow with it.

RELATED PIECES

To understand the full foundation and the live update process, start here:

• The Pillars of Power Portfolio — inaugural deep-dive piece (4/1/2026)

• The Pillars of Power Portfolio - Update — update piece (5/20/2026)

If you enjoy the content, subscribe.

Subscribe now

If it is useful, share.

Share

Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

Deep-dives: Substack

Short notes: Substack notes

Videos & Podcasts: YouTube

Tweets: X

Website: AquaVis

Disclosures

This commentary has been prepared by AquaVis Advisors LLC (“AquaVis”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does it constitute investment advice or a recommendation to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, AquaVis makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

Any opinions or estimates expressed reflect personal views as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider this material as only one input in their decision-making process and should obtain independent financial, legal, and tax advice before making any investment decisions.

Investing in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and may be affected by changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, credit conditions, and the price or volatility of underlying assets. Certain investments may be speculative and are not suitable for all investors.

AquaVis may, from time to time, have long or short positions in securities or other financial instruments mentioned and may transact in such instruments without further notice.

• The Three Duties of Power is a powerful framework to guide leaders — and a standard by which to judge them

• The inaugural piece evaluation closed at the end of 2024:

  • From roughly 1945 to 2000, leaders largely fulfilled the Duties. They shepherded the System, strengthened the Pillars, and invested in the Productive Labor Force

  • From roughly 2000 to 2024, leaders failed all three. They allowed the System to be exploited, hollowed out the Pillars, and financially smothered the very cohort required to build the future

• Fast forward to today. The Trump/Xi summit has concluded. The U.S.-China Board of Trade and Board of Investment are now active. The Peaceful Re-Balancing thesis has moved from forecast to observable sequence

• Almost 18 months into the Trump Admin’s term, time to objectively grade the current Admin against the same standard:

  • Duty 1 — Shepherd the System: the Admin recognized the old System was corrupted; so they are ending it and building a New System in parallel

  • Duty 2 — Strengthen the Pillars: this is where the clearest, fastest progress has occurred. Technology, Energy, and Money all actively being re-built — with a clear focus on the new strategic spheres (Arctic & Space) where the next era of Power will be decided

  • Duty 3 — Invest in the Productive Labor Force: this remains an open Duty. So far, it is mostly a foundation reset and byproduct of ancillary Policies. Whether it becomes a direct priority will determine whether the New System echoes the post-WWII Golden Age — or merely rebuilds the Pillars without rebuilding the people

• The meta-question — once the Power is re-accumulated, how will it be distributed? Technology and Money, in particular, cut both ways:

  • AI can decentralize intelligence — or concentrate control

  • Blockchain, programmable money, and USD stablecoins can broaden access — or deepen surveillance and financial centralization

• The same tools can empower the Productive Labor Force. Or they can become the next architecture of extraction. Which is why it is so important to have an independent framework to evaluate leaders. And why it is so important for people to become aware of how things work so they can make better decisions.

  • Awareness → Understanding → Empowerment → Better Decisions → Brighter Future

This is not endorsement. It is recognition. The framework guides leaders — and judges them.

THE PRIOR EVALUATION & THE HANDOFF

The Three Duties of Power scorecard last closed at the end of 2024 with a clear verdict on the prior generation in Power (~2000-2024):

They unequivocally failed.

Over the prior two-plus decades (~2000-2024), those in Power systematically failed all Three Duties.

Duty 1 Failed — Shepherding the System … Leaders allowed adversaries and co-opted elites to systematically exploit the structure.

Duty 2 Failed — Strengthening the Pillars … Critical Productive Capacity was offshored. Innovation was stifled. Energy production was suppressed. The Money Pillar was pillaged — Capital holders were repeatedly rescued at the expense of Labor.

Duty 3 Failed — Investing in the Productive Labor Force … Productive Capacity shipped to China. The Productive Labor Force financially smothered. Both at once.

— The Three Duties of Power

The Foundational Mindset at the leadership level was self, short-term, scarcity. The downstream outputs are now obvious: wealth concentration, de-industrialization, a Demographic crisis.

The unsustainably imbalanced System we see today.

They cleanly and clearly failed every single Duty, handing off the mess to a new Admin.

Then January 2025 happened. New Admin. A complete 180.

The pendulums had swung to extremes:

• Capital over Labor

• Consumption over Production

• Bits over Atoms

• Short-term over Long-term

Four pendulums. One broken Foundation.

All of them interconnected — the same flows of subverted energy expressed in four different stocks.

— Interconnected Flywheels All the Way Down

The 180 is the intentional attempt to swing them back toward Balance.

Whether you like the delivery or not is irrelevant to the evaluation.

The Duties are the standard. Apply them honestly.

So how are they doing? Let’s walk through each…

DUTY 1 — SHEPHERD THE SYSTEM

A good system does not require endless intervention…

The System is never static. Nature and its flows constantly seek balance; a poorly designed System and its Policies can create serious im-balances — pushing pendulums to extremes (#unsustainably-imbalanced-System).

— The Three Duties of Power

The old System was not simply outdated. It was corrupted — quietly subverted over ~25 years by adversaries, co-opted elites, and greedy incumbents who profited from the imbalance.

The architect (US) was defending a System that systematically destroyed it.

Pendulums were pushed to extremes, and left unaddressed, would continue to swing in the same extreme direction — hence, the unsustainably imbalanced System.

Simplistically, the pendulum has swung too far (in the US in particular):

• Consumption vs. Production

• Capital vs. Labor

• Short-Termism vs. Long-Term Building

• Scarcity Mindset vs. Growth Mindset

The list goes on. It’s all rooted in the same thing. Whether you are left, right, up, down or inside-out (we don’t buy into categorical mutually exclusive parties) – it’s pretty obvious the System is unbalanced.

If left unaddressed, this is a National Security concern.

We can choose to address it. Or choose to stay asleep and it will address us.

— Tariffs (Part I)

A real Shepherd does not merely observe the flow moving in the wrong direction.

A real Shepherd recognizes when the structure no longer serves its purpose — and acts to re-direct the flow.

The current Admin recognized the issues and acted.

• Tariffs — the wake-up call. Not an end state. The catalyst. The mirror to highlight the un-fair structure; a forcing function to end the old System and re-direct the flows.

• The US/Middle East deals — the template. Money + Energy in exchange for Technology. Burden-sharing structured around the Pillars of Power. Re-directing Money flows toward Physical and Productive assets (Atoms), over Digital (Financialized) and often Un-Productive (Bits). Designed with an abundance mindset to grow the pie in a mutually beneficial way. The blueprint other deals would follow (Japan, UK, etc.).

• Chokepoint sequencing — Panama → Greenland → Venezuela → the Russian shadow fleet → Iran / Strait of Hormuz → Indonesia / Strait of Malacca. Cutting off the flows that fed the old System (and its adversary beneficiaries).

• Public/private partnerships — Intel (semiconductors), MP Materials / DoD (rare earths), Nippon / US Steel golden share. Re-internalizing Critical Product Production into the US/West — with a clear focus on National Security and dependency removal.

• Peaceful Re-Balancing — Increase Production in the US, Increase Consumption in China. Trump/Xi summit concluded; bilateral Board of Trade (Non-Critical) and Board of Investment (Chinese surplus into US Productive Capacity — atoms, not just bits) now stood up. Phase 3 in process.

No more bandaids. Foundational re-design.

The lead architect began building a New System in parallel — waking up other members out of their slumber (Tariffs), designing mutually beneficial deals to enhance resilience and adaptability, and pumping fresh energy and oxygen into the System.

It is simply a recognition that the Admin is:

• Aware that the old System weakened the US and strengthened adversaries

• Ending the old System

• Re-building a New System

• Upsetting a lot of people who benefitted from the old System

— The Multi-Decade Quiet War & The System Phase Transition (Part II)

The external chaos conceals internal order.

End the old System, end those flows.

Build the New System, re-direct those flows.

— The Multi-Decade Quiet War & The System Phase Transition (Part I)

End the old. Re-direct toward the New. Build with allies. Then negotiate with the primary adversary from a position of leverage.

That last step — Phase 3, a forecast from May 2025 — is now manifesting. The Peaceful Re-Balancing in motion.

This is Shepherding. Not the “let-the-parasite-feed-while-we-gaslight-the-populace” strategy of the prior generation in Power. An active, sequenced intentional re-design.

The Current beneath the Chaos.

All meant to push the Pendulums from extremes, back toward Balance.

And to directly remove critical dependencies — chokepoints — to ensure National Security & Sovereignty.

Cold War 2.0 — the ‘Great Game’ — will continue in Critical areas: the Strategic Rivalry, the Race for Asymmetry. While the Peaceful Re-balancing simultaneously occurs in non-critical areas.

Dialectic thinking: you can both expand cooperation in non-Critical areas (rubber ducks) and compete in Critical (AI).

Verdict: Duty 1 in process, on schedule — ✅.

The old System is being ended as the New System is being built. The river is being re-channeled. The architect is back at the helm.

DUTY 2 — STRENGTHEN THE PILLARS

The Pillars of Power - what gives the Hegemon (the leading Nation) its Power.

To maintain hegemonic control, leaders must continuously nurture their asymmetric advantages across the three Pillars.

When these Pillars are strong, a system can deter threats, fund growth, and shape the world around it.

— The Three Duties of Power

This is the area where the scorecard is clearest — and fastest.

The Pillars of Power are Technology, Energy, and Money.

• Asymmetric Technology enables deterrence and productivity.

• Cheap, abundant Energy provides the power source.

• Controlled Money funds and coordinates.

When all three reinforce each other, Power compounds.

When they weaken, Power decays.

From ~2000 to 2024, the United States allowed the Pillars to hollow out.

Technology leadership remained strong at the software layer (bits), but the physical stack underneath (atoms) was exposed.

Energy abundance was constrained by policy, permitting, and ideology.

Money increasingly flowed toward financialized assets (bits) instead of Productive Capacity (atoms).

The current Admin recognized the dependencies, weaknesses, and im-balances.

And immediately moved to directly address each Pillar.

TECHNOLOGY

The Technology (AI) Race is The Race to establish Power and Control the Global World Order.

— The Multi-Decade Quiet War & The System Phase Transition (Part II)

Technology sits at the foundation. AI is the primary Technology of this Revolution, and the Admin treated it that way from Day 1.

• Day 1 Executive Order: Removing Barriers to American Leadership in Artificial Intelligence

• The AI Action Plan — explicit goal: win the AI race; 90+ Federal actions across Accelerating Innovation, Building Infrastructure, and Leading in International Diplomacy and Security

• The One Big Beautiful Bill Act — the underlying incentives shaping the flow: 100% CapEx depreciation + full R&D expensing for the domestic build-out

• The result:

  • Phase 1 AI Infrastructure boom — Data Centers, Semiconductor Fabs, the entire Compute stack — capex inflecting vertically.

  • Phase 2 now underway:

    • Genesis Mission: Manhattan-Project-scale application layer pairing National Lab data with frontier models to accelerate discovery and innovation

    • Mythos: Anthropic’s step-function base model

    • Terafab: the Policy + Tariff + industrial-strategy confluence: chip design, chip fabrication, paired with compute, algorithm, power, application. The full stack.

‘U.S. global compute share has risen from the 30% range into the 50% range and could reach 70% to 80% within a few years’ — Scott Bessent

Anthropic’s Mythos may be the non-linear advancement in AI that enables Technology asymmetry - at least for a period.

A key output of the ‘bets’ the US has made over the last year.

— The Multi-Decade Quiet War & The System Phase Transition (Part II)

Access to the US AI stack is now the new Security umbrella — the carrot that draws sovereigns to join the New System.

Expand the Network, expand the Control.

But Technology without the means to produce it is empty.

Hence the importance of re-shoring. Re-directing flows towards atoms over bits — one of the many intended purposes of Tariffs: bringing Critical Product Production Home and to Allies.

That is why fabs, data centers, nuclear plants, grid upgrades, and hyperscaler capex all belong in the same conversation.

But that Critical Product Production is empty without the Energy to power it…

ENERGY

There is no scalable Technology, there is no Production (Industry) without Energy.

You need abundant, low-cost, stable Energy to power your Production – without it, there is no reshoring.

Energy is the base layer for Life. Money is the base layer for Energy.

— The Pillars of Power

No Energy, no Production. No Production, no Technology stack. No Technology stack, no deterrence. No deterrence, no Power.

The Admin moved immediately:

• Inaugural address: National Energy Emergency

• Executive Order: Unleashing American Energy

• Nuclear revival — fast-tracked permits, target of 4x US nuclear capacity by 2050, hyperscaler deals (Constellation, Talen, Three Mile Island restart)

• Critical Minerals — Section 232 investigations across nine areas; the MP Materials / DoD partnership (echoing the 1950s DoD/Semiconductor template) to remove the China rare earth chokepoint.

The base layer was re-energized.

The Genesis Mission is the asymmetric ‘bet’ on unlimited Energy.

And then the strategic layer came into focus: the chokepoint campaign.

Panama, Hormuz, the Russian shadow fleet, Venezuela, Malacca next.

The US/West went upstream of China’s Productive Capacity to its foundational input — Energy.

Energy is China’s relative Pillar of Power weak point. China is a net energy importer — a dependency and an area they do not fully control.

If you cannot power your Productive Capacity, then it is empty. And think about how important Productive Capacity (e.g., data centers) is in the middle of a Technological Revolution that will likely determine who controls the World Order… The deeply interconnected Pillars of Power.

— The Multi-Decade Quiet War & The System Phase Transition (Part II)

Control the chokepoints, control the flow. Exploit the adversary’s weakest Pillar = asymmetric.

And in it’s place, the US inserted it’s own Corporates, increasing the World’s dependence upon US LNG.

Now, to buy that Energy — notably increasingly important US LNG (#Petrogas-Dollar) — what do you need?

MONEY

US Dollars — likely via US Stablecoins as a medium of exchange.

The Money Pillar hit a relative nadir in 2024. It has since begun its rebound — and it is being rebuilt on new rails.

The strategy: Tariffs, Tolls, & Tribute.

• Tariffs — the multi-purpose tool. A catalyst to end the old System, a mirror to reveal the un-fair structure, and a re-director of flows in the New.

• Tolls — the price of access. security is not free. Access to the USD network is not free. Market access is not free.

• Tribute — the new alliance contribution model. Every country pays in some form. NATO at 5% of GDP. Japan’s $550B managed vehicle. Allies buying low-yielding US century bonds.

Plus the America First Investment Policy + the GENIUS Act + the Clarity Act (pending) — expanding and re-routing Money flows toward Productive (Physical) assets and away from Financialized (Digital, often un-Productive) assets.

Perhaps the most important, but least covered aspect of any of these deals is the very clear restructuring of where Money (Capital) flows — toward Productive (Real) Assets (Physical) away from Digital (Financial) Assets (often un-Productive).

— PoP: US & The Trump Agenda - 6 Months In

$7T+ in committed Money flowing into the US. NATO commitments on top. Tariff revenue on top.

And — quietly — the stablecoin foundation. USD stablecoins backed by Treasury Bills give the US incremental visibility and control over the offshore-dollar (Eurodollar) market. The outdated SWIFT layer was built in the 1970s.

Blockchain is the new base-layer Technology for Money.

The external evidence supporting the Technology and Energy Pillar re-strengthening are now quite obvious. Meanwhile, the Money Pillar scaffolding is being built in the background.

The Multi-Year Mar-a-Lago Accord — focused on the Money Pillar, in particular — is underway. Of all of the Pillars, this is where I expect the most change over the next year…

NEW SPHERES — ARCTIC & SPACE

The Pillars are not just being rebuilt where they sit today. They are being future-proofed in the new spheres where the next century’s Power will compete:

The Arctic sits at the nexus of all three Pillars …

Space is the ultimate higher ground.

— The Current Beneath the Chaos

These new spheres are clear Pillars of Power convergence points:

• Arctic — Greenland as the emerging hub: trade routes opening as ice melts, ~90B barrels of recoverable oil, ~1,670 tcf of natural gas, critical-mineral reserves, undersea-cable nexus, and the Golden Dome anchor…

• Space — SpaceX controls ~two-thirds of active satellites; Starlink is the new comms backbone with clear dual-use; the Golden Dome (funded via OBBBA) is asymmetric Technology applied as deterrence; Helium-3 and asteroid resources are the generational Money Pillar upside

• The adversary parallel — China is not sitting still: BeiDou (GPS alternative), SpaceSail (Starlink alternative), the Three-Body Computing Constellation. The Race is not relegated to Earth.

These aren’t niche topics. They are the next-generation chokepoints.

Future Pillars get built now — or get conceded.

Verdict: Duty 2 tangible progress, ahead of schedule — ✅.

All three Pillars are being actively re-built — fast — and future-proofed in the new spheres.

Active flowing energy is clearly being re-directed toward each Pillar.

Technology is the focal point; Energy is the unlock; Money has been re-routed to both fund and harness both.

DUTY 3 — INVEST IN THE PRODUCTIVE LABOR FORCE

If growth and longevity of the System are the goals, the young Productive Labor Force must be the focus — with family formation as a focal KPI.

Sounds ‘simple,’ but it is foundational.

Simply, no children = no future.

— The Three Duties of Power

The Trump Admin inherited a mess related to Duty 3.

The leaders of the last 25+ years systematically invested in the old at the direct expense of the young.

The outputs are obvious:

There are now more dogs than kids in the US.

The Productive Labor Force cannot afford a home or a family.

Prior leaders used illegal immigration to manipulate the System and subvert Labor.

This is the Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny flywheel… in reverse.

This is a critical open Duty for the Trump Admin.

The prior generation of leaders handed them degraded Demographics: a weakened, under-served Productive Labor Force from decades of selfish, short-term, scarcity-based Decisions, directly jeopardizing the Destiny of the Nation.

The focus by the Admin so far has been on stopping the bleed and addressing the foundation:

• Border closure — removes wage suppression from Labor over-supply, removes housing competition, removes welfare drain. Net positive for the Productive Labor Force. The primary initial Policy purpose was National Security and re-building the Money Pillar.

• Reshoring — Tariffs + OBBBA + AI Action Plan together create net new jobs that would not otherwise exist: construction, technicians, engineers. Higher-skilled jobs on top as Robotics/Physical AI scale. The next decade will be the era of Blue Collar (Atoms) over White Collar (Bits).

• OBBBA tax provisions — R&D and CapEx incentives benefit Capital more directly than Labor; Labor benefits downstream through the build-out.

• Education revamping, Drug warfare cessation, et al. — many foundational areas to fix and reverse after decades of vulnerability exploitation via unrestricted warfare by adversaries.

These are real. They matter. But they are mostly byproducts.

Compare with the post-WWII Duty 3 template — the direct, intentional spotlight on the rising Productive cohort:

Policies like the GI Bill and the interstate highway system fueled the economy and facilitated massive household formation … as the Boomers … themselves entered the Productive Labor Force in the 1980s, leaders adapted. They shifted the Policy spotlight to this rising generation — slashing top marginal tax rates on labor from 70% to sub-30% and engineering cheap, accessible housing.

— The Three Duties of Power

That is what direct Duty 3 fulfillment looks like.

The focus from here, to fulfill this Duty, must be to build upon the ‘clean’ foundation — and invest directly in the Productive Labor Force to get the D, D, D flywheel spinning in the right direction.

What is still missing or unclear in the current Admin’s active playbook:

• Housing affordability for the rising cohort — the entrance fee to family formation

• Childcare, healthcare, education affordability — the inputs to family formation

• A family-formation focal KPI as a critical agenda item

• An ownership rebuild — the Productive Labor Force as owners of the New System (with aligned incentives to defend it), not renters of it

The Pillars are being rebuilt. The Productive Capacity is coming back. But the people who are supposed to power it — the prime working-age cohort, the 25–54 engine, the future family-formers: the Productive Labor Force — still need a direct Policy spotlight.

The Decisions made by the Trump Admin today will shape the Demographics of the future and the Destiny of the Nation.

The window is still open — the echo boom generation (Millennials) are still in prime family formation years.

Will the Admin seize the opportunity?

The stakes are high: Generational renewal and the future Power of the Nation.

Verdict: Duty 3 is up for debate. The byproducts trend positive. The direct investment in the Productive Labor Force is still mostly unwritten. This is the Duty to watch. This is the Duty to shape.

If Duty 3 is not fulfilled, the Pillars get re-built — but for whom?

THE OPEN QUESTION — HOW IS THE POWER DISTRIBUTED?

Duty 2 is accumulating Power back into the US — reshaping the flows to build the stock. Duty 3 implicitly answers who inside the US gets it.

And both pivot on two Technologies that cut sharply both ways:

AI. Productivity multiplier for the many — or surveillance and concentration tool for the few. The same chips. The same models. The same Infrastructure. Different design choices.

Can this overall AI layer be used in negative ways (i.e., AI Surveillance State)? Absolutely. This is likely my biggest concern — particularly in the ‘wrong’ hands.

— The Multi-Decade Quiet War & The System Phase Transition (Part II)

Blockchain + Programmable Money. USD stablecoins give the US more visibility and more control over dollar flows globally. That control can be used to broaden ownership, fund productive assets, and let citizens participate — or to concentrate gatekeeping in the hands of the few who set the rails.

The combination unequivocally provides more control, and thus more Power, for the US. (Similar to the AI comment above, this provides another vector of ‘in the wrong hands, this can be bad’ that must be addressed)

— The Multi-Decade Quiet War & The System Phase Transition (Part II)

The continuum from The Three Duties of Power reasserts itself at every design choice:

• Self vs. Collective

• Short-term vs. Long-term

• Scarcity vs. Abundance

The Pillars are being rebuilt.

The mindset governing how the rebuilt Power is distributed is the next chapter.

An era of further centralization or a Golden Age of de-centralization? I know where I am focused.

This is the design space of the next 18-24 months. This is the opportunity to shape the future. This is where Duty 3 either is fulfilled — or not.

CONFLUENCE

Grading the current Admin against the framework, not the noise:

• Duty 1 — Shepherd the System: in process, on schedule — ✅. The old System is ending, the New System is emerging. The end of the old & the beginning of the New.

• Duty 2 — Strengthen the Pillars: tangible progress, ahead of schedule — ✅. Technology, Energy, Money — all actively re-built and future-proofed in the new spheres (Arctic & Space); the fastest re-fortification of US Pillars in modern History.

• Duty 3 — Invest in the Productive Labor Force: TBD. Byproducts trend positive. Direct, intentional, cohort-focused Policy still mostly unwritten. Shape this space.

Almost 18 months in, the sequence has visibly landed — the Trump/Xi summit just concluded, the bilateral Board of Trade and Board of Investment are stood up, and the Peaceful Re-Balancing is in motion.

The July 4, 2026 crescendo target — set over a year ago in the Tariffs sequencing — is here.

The New System architecture is visible. The downstream outputs are beginning to manifest.

If we want a better future, we need better leaders.

If we want better leaders, we need to hold them accountable.

If we want to hold them accountable, we need a framework to do so.

— The Three Duties of Power

The framework guides leaders. The framework also judges them.

Accountability is key.

The scorecard is live.

The Duties don’t care about politics.

They care about whether the System is healthier, whether the Pillars are stronger, and whether the next generation has a future worth defending.

Two of three are in motion. The third is the one that matters most over the long arc.

The ball is still in the Admin’s court.

And in ours.

Awareness → Understanding → Empowerment → Better Decisions → Brighter Future.

Time to build.

For a full deep-dive on the Trump Admin Agenda, check out these pieces:

• US & the Trump Admin Agenda ~15 Months In

• US & The Trump Agenda - 6 Months In

• US & The Trump Agenda

Each piece builds upon the next; read the latest for the most complete coverage and update on the progress

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Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

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Website: AquaVis

Disclosures

This commentary has been prepared by AquaVis Advisors LLC (“AquaVis”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does it constitute investment advice or a recommendation to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, AquaVis makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

Any opinions or estimates expressed reflect personal views as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider this material as only one input in their decision-making process and should obtain independent financial, legal, and tax advice before making any investment decisions.

Investing in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and may be affected by changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, credit conditions, and the price or volatility of underlying assets. Certain investments may be speculative and are not suitable for all investors.

AquaVis may, from time to time, have long or short positions in securities or other financial instruments mentioned and may transact in such instruments without further notice.

Different labels. Same pattern.

Nature has been designing, refining, and harnessing this self-reinforcing template for billions of years — from the water cycle, to forest succession, to the sun-plant-soil feedback loop.

Each is a fractal: the same self-similar pattern at every scale.

Each is a self-sustaining feedback loop. Each component is interdependent. Whether you zoom in or out, you see a similar self-reinforcing loop. A flywheel within a flywheel — interconnected flywheels all the way down.

We did not invent the flywheel. We inherited the design.

And now we have the opportunity to mirror the pattern to build better businesses, better systems, and a better future.

Biomimicry: studying nature’s time-tested patterns to solve human challenges

Every thing is a wave. Every wave is made of smaller waves.

INTERDEPENDENT FLYWHEELS ALL THE WAY DOWN

The frameworks at the heart of AquaVis are not separate. They are all interconnected. Each one is a self-reinforcing loop on its own. Together, they compose a larger, deeply interdependent flywheel.

The AquaVis Frameworks apply Nature’s same pattern to Power — both its stock and flow — at different scales:

• The Pillars of Power - what gives the Hegemon (the leading Nation) its Power

• The Duties of Power - the Duties of Leaders currently entrusted with Power

• Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny - how the Decisions made by Leaders today shape the future inherited tomorrow

• Foundational Mindset - how the Mindset of Leaders shapes their Decisions and the downstream consequences of those Decisions

• The Six A’s Flywheel - the underappreciated Power of the Individual

Each framework is both a lens and a lever.

A lens for seeing that scale of power. A lever for turning it forward.

Because a System is simply a structure that directs flows.

And every flow is energy moving through the System — water, capital, attention, decisions.

Each framework names a sub-flywheel within the System’s master loop.

Each reveals a different scale of Power — from Nations, to Leaders, to Individuals.

And each points to a different lever for strengthening the whole.

Interdependent flywheels all the way down.

FOUNDATIONAL MINDSET: THE SUBSTRATE

Before any Pillar. Before any Duty. Before any Decision.

There is Mindset.

Mindset is the soil every other flywheel grows in. It runs on three axes:

• Self vs. Collective

• Short-term vs. Long-term

• Scarcity vs. Abundance

These are not binary choices. They are dialectics — opposing forces in productive tension. Distinct yet interdependent forces that create a more complete picture of reality through contrast and interaction.

Like Yin and Yang. East and West. Order and Chaos. Pattern-Recognition and Imagination.

The healthy System holds both poles in balance.

When one pole captures the System, the dialectic dies. The Pendulums swing to extremes.

The corrupted extreme spins the vicious flywheel: Selfish, Scarcity, Short-termism.

The balanced inverse spins the virtuous flywheel: Collective, Abundance, Long-term.

Mindset is its own flywheel. The choice on each axis is self-reinforcing.

Abundance attracts abundance. Scarcity hardens scarcity.

Long-term thinking compounds. Short-termism consumes the future.

Mindset is universal — every individual carries one.

But its leverage scales with Power.

A leader’s Mindset shapes every Decision they make. Those Decisions flow downstream — into the Pillars, into the Policies that shape Demographics, into the Destiny of a Nation — revealing whether Leaders fulfill or violate their Duties.

An interconnected set of flywheels. Each loop feeds the next. Each loop feeds back into the whole. Context and Sequencing always matter. A ‘linear’ view of a non-linear process:

That is how Power flows through the System.

And it is why fixing a broken System cannot simply start at the System layer.

If the foundational view of reality is wrong, every Decision built on top of it will be wrong.

When the external feedback mechanisms — Media, Markets, Institutions — are corrupted, you cannot trust them as inputs.

So you return to the internal substrate: Mindset.

The Source defines the flow.

Poison the headwater and every channel below it carries the poison.

Impact one — impact everything downstream of it.

In a world of extremes, choose balance.

THE VIRTUOUS CYCLE

With a Growth Mindset at the Foundation, the Flywheel spins forward.

Collective. Long-term. Abundant.

Mindset shapes Decisions. Decisions fulfill Duties.

Leaders shepherd the System.

They tend to the Pillars — investing in asymmetric Technology, abundant Energy, and Money.

They invest in the Productive Labor Force.

Wages rise. Families form. Demographics strengthen.

The flywheels compound. The next generation inherits a stronger System.

Each Duty makes the next easier to practice.

Every sub-flywheel turns with the others.

Each turn of the System Flywheel makes the next turn stronger.

This was the Post-WWII old System through the 1990s — the Golden Age peak.

The pie was growing.

THE VICIOUS CYCLE

With a Scarcity Mindset at the Foundation, the Flywheel spins backward.

Selfish. Short-termism. Scarcity.

The Three Axes inverted.

Mindset shapes Decisions. Decisions violate the Duties.

Leaders stop shepherding the System — and start pillaging it.

They neglect the Pillars — stifling innovative Technology, suppressing Energy investment, debasing Money.

They abandon the Productive Labor Force, investing instead in themselves.

Selling off Productive Capacity and pocketing the proceeds.

Wages stagnate. Families fracture. Demographics collapse.

The flywheels degrade. The next generation inherits a weaker System.

Each violated Duty makes the next harder to fulfill.

Every sub-flywheel turns against the others.

Each turn of the System Flywheel makes the next turn worse.

This is the Post-2000 era — the old System exploited.

The financial pie appeared to grow.

But the productive pie was shrinking.

And those at the top consumed a larger slice than anything they created.

Today we see the many downstream outcomes from a subverted Foundational Mindset.

A Virtuous Flywheel self-corrects when something goes wrong.

A Vicious Flywheel protects itself from correction.

The old System was infiltrated and exploited — by adversaries who studied the openness, by co-opted elites who profited from the rot.

The System’s natural feedback mechanisms — an accountable Media, a discerning Market, real consequences for unelected officials — were systematically broken so the parasite could feed without triggering an immune response.

Most are still asleep. Intentionally kept that way.

Still simply looking at the surface.

Asset prices. Headlines. Narratives.

The appearance of growth.

But beneath the surface, the foundation was being hollowed out.

The System was being consumed.

THE PENDULUMS

When the flywheel runs backward long enough, the underlying balances break.

With the Three Axes inverted for decades, the Pendulums swung past equilibrium — and into rigid fragility:

• Capital over Labor — Money paying money in proportion to how much money it already has. Wages actively suppressed. Capital saved at every turn on the tab of Labor. The K-shape economy in action.

• Consumption over Production — The US shipped its Productive Capacity and the related Productive Labor Force overseas. Turning into a Consumption economy powered by the Capital class — buying back the output on credit.

• Bits over Atoms — Capital flows were redirected from Productive physical assets (factories, energy infrastructure, semiconductors) into financial engineering (buybacks, passive flows, leverage).

• Short-term over Long-term — investing in the old at the expense of the young. Preserving the past at the expense of the future.

These are not four separate symptoms.

They are the same flows of subverted energy expressed in four different stocks.

Each Pendulum should have been re-balancing.

But the feedback loops were severed.

So the Pendulums kept swinging.

Past balance, resilience, and adaptability.

Into imbalance, fragility, and rigidity.

Four Pendulums. One broken Foundation.

And all of them are interconnected.

Labor. Production. Atoms. Long-term. Ignored.

Capital. Consumption. Bits. Short-term. Elevated.

THE CASCADE

These Decisions do not stop at the point of Decision.

They compound downstream. Self-similar outputs. Fractals at every scale.

The pattern begins with the Foundational Mindset, flows into Decisions, and eventually becomes visible in the world.

For decades, Leaders abandoned the Third Duty: Invest in the Productive Labor Force.

Instead, they invested in un-productive Capital — driven by Selfish, Scarcity, and Short-termism.

One abandoned Duty. Four downstream fractals.

Each a self-reinforcing loop. Each spinning the wrong way.

Spawning the first fractal:

• The Financialization Flywheel (the Corporate fractal). Executives are paid in stock. Workers are paid in wages. The link between value creation and value ownership was severed in the late 1990s. Companies borrowed at artificially suppressed rates to repurchase their own shares — Capital raised to inflate Capital. “If you pay someone to increase their stock price, that is what they will try to do.” Cash flows redirected away from Atoms toward Bits — Productive capex stifled, financial engineering rewarded. Capital turned inward. Lobbying to preserve the status quo. Blocking creative destruction. Protecting itself from corrective re-balancing. At every turn, Central Planners chose to save Capital at the direct expense of Labor.

The Financialization Flywheel began to spin, and once it spun long enough, it cascaded into the next:

• The Concentration Cascade (the Ownership fractal). When Capital concentrates inside Corporates, Ownership concentrates too. The gains flow to those who already own the claims. The top 1%. The older cohorts. Foreign owners. Passive vehicles. The corporate economy becomes increasingly owned by those least directly tied to the country’s long-term productive future. And even those who own the market do not truly control it. Voting power concentrates. Proxy power concentrates. Board power concentrates. Governance becomes internal, circular, and self-protective. The ownership link breaks. Capital no longer disciplines management. It protects management. Concentration begets concentration.

The Concentration Cascade flows right into the next fractal:

• The Diversification Illusion (the Investor fractal). You hold the index. The index holds outsized exposure to a few names. Those names are increasingly correlated. Concentration sits inside the wrapper of diversification. The label changed; the exposure did not. In passive world, Capital is no longer allocated to the most productive firms; it is simply assigned to the largest ones. Size attracts flows.

  Flows increase size. Size attracts more flows. Another flywheel. Another concentration loop. The result is rigid fragility. Concentration in supply chains, markets, ownership. Everywhere the same pattern appears.

And all of it cascades into Society itself:

• The Society Fractal (the Generational fractal). The Pendulums do not stop in markets. They flow into individuals. Families. Communities. Demographics. Wages stagnate. Housing costs rise. Family formation becomes harder. The young — who want to build families — cannot afford to. So many do not. Meanwhile, the old retain the wealth, the houses, and the votes. Entitlements and interest expense pay the past. The young inherit the bill. Any great power that spends more on the old than on the young risks ceasing to be a great power. The Demographic flywheel turns backward. Fewer families. Fewer children. A weaker next generation. A smaller future. There are now more dogs than kids in the US.

One abandoned Duty.

Four downstream fractals.

First, they broke the link between value creation and value ownership.

Then they broke the feedback mechanisms.

Then they broke the allocation of Capital.

Then they broke the distribution of opportunity.

A vicious, System-destroying cycle.

Concentration fractals everywhere.

Interconnected flywheels — all the way down.

FORM FOLLOWS FLOW

Every flywheel reduces to the same physics: stocks shaped by flows.

• Flows are primary — flowing energy: capital, attention, decisions, water.

• Stocks are derivative — accumulated energy: what compounds when the flow has been directed for long enough.

Rivers carve valleys. Capital flows shape industries.

Attention flows shape culture. Decisions shape Destiny.

From sea shells to stock prices — every form is the physical remnant of an immaterial flow.

Form follows flow.

When flows last long enough, the stock builds up. Pendulums reach extremes.

The Cascade is simply this principle made visible.

Decades of distorted flows created distorted stocks:

• Concentrated Capital.

• Hollowed-out Production.

• Fragile supply chains.

• Collapsed Demographics.

• A weakened System.

Every layer of the lattice — every sub-flywheel — is just stocks and flows at a different scale.

Once you see it, you cannot un-see it.

RESTORING THE NATURAL BALANCE

The old System didn’t simply fail.

It was subverted — by adversaries who studied its openness.

And corrupted — by co-opted elites who profited from the rot.

Flows were harnessed to serve:

• The few at the expense of the many.

• The old at the expense of the young.

• Capital at the expense of Labor.

• Consumption at the expense of Production.

• Bits at the expense of Atoms.

• Short-term at the expense of Long-term.

Leaders abandoned their Duties.

They blindly ‘preserved’ a subverted System that systematically weakened its architect and strengthened its adversaries.

Wealth shipped overseas. Productive Capacity sold off. Adversaries strengthened. The Hegemon weakened.

Failed Duties at the top flowed downstream into the observable, fractal-like symptoms visible today.

The System’s natural feedback mechanisms — its immune response — were systematically severed:

• Captured Media.

• Blind Markets.

• Corrupted Institutions.

• Unelected officials with no consequence for poor Decisions.

When the immune system stops working, the parasite freely spreads.

The wheel spun backward, unchecked. No natural re-balancing.

The path forward is not to nostalgically restore the old System.

The old System is dead.

The path forward is to build a New System.

Remember: a System is simply a structure that directs flows.

It should not be designed to force outcomes.

It should be designed to help guide flows with intention.

Too much structure suffocates: Regulation stifles innovation. Energy suppressed builds up beneath the surface — until the dam breaks.

Too little structure breeds chaos: No rules. No coordination. Energy dissipates without compounding.

Balance is key. Structure that channels — not structure that constrains.

The river needs banks. But banks that follow the river — not banks that trap it.

The Hegemon — enabled by leadership across the Pillars — earns the right to design the System.

But the Foundational Mindset of the Leaders determines the architecture:

• Built well, the architecture should serve all of the System constituents.

• Built poorly, it serves the few while consuming the whole.

The New System should be built to:

• Fulfill The Three Duties: Shepherd the System, Strengthen the Pillars, Invest in the Productive Labor Force

• Grow the overall pie — to create sustainable abundance, to restore balance

Context and sequencing matter.

For too long, natural re-balancing flows were suppressed.

Time to unleash the energy.

Fluid over rigid.
Adaptable over calcified.
Resilient over concentrated.
Dynamic over static.

A New System must restore the feedback mechanisms — so it can self-correct in real time, find its own balance, and pass momentum forward to the next generation.

Nature naturally has feedback loops. We chose to break them. We can choose to restore them.

If Mindset got us into this mess — why can’t Mindset get us out?

The Source defines the flow.

Reset the Foundation, and every flywheel downstream begins to find its natural shape again.

Be like water.

Water seeks balance — without resistance, without force.

The levers are not new. They have been waiting:

• Mindset is the lever. Collective over Self. Long-term over Short-term. Abundance over Scarcity. The Three Axes, re-balanced.

• Curation is the discipline. Curate your inputs. Filter the noise. Connect the dots. Curate, curate, curate.

• Atoms over Bits is the reallocation. Capital flowing back into Productive Capacity. And the Productive Labor Force attached to them.

The New System architecture may be redesigned from above.

But it will be built from the energy below.

One Mind. One Decision. One flywheel at a time.

IT BEGINS WITH YOU

The New System is built from the energy below.

That energy begins with your Mind.

Mindset sits at the foundation.

You choose how to harness it.

This is the purpose of the Energy Flows Framework.

It creates ‘structure’ for the flow — from organization, to direction, to action:

Order Your Mind: The stock of accumulated, immaterial energy. Build the lens. Without a clear framework, you are vulnerable to the noise and chaos of the world.

⌄

Direct Your Attention: The flow of finite bandwidth. Control the current. Once your mind is ordered, you dictate where your active flowing energy goes, rather than letting it be stolen by distraction.

⌄

Harness Your Money: The stock you have built, and the new flow you direct. Command the reserve. With your mind sharp and your attention focused, you can effectively deploy your stored energy to build and protect your assets.

⌄

Shape Your Future: The compounded outcome of the prior three. Own the outcome. When your internal clarity, active attention, and stored capital are aligned, you stop re-acting to the world’s design — and start building your own.

And the 6 A’s are the engine inside. They name how you actually turn the wheel:

• Awareness — see the world the way it is.

• Attention — focus your flowing energy.

• Agency — recognize your power.

• Action — move intentionally.

• Accountability — own the result.

• Actualization — shape the future.

The Flows name what changes. The 6 A’s name how it changes. All are focused on energy stock and flow.

Together they form one complete flywheel: your personal flywheel.

The individual-scale mirror of the systemic System Flywheel. Same shape, different scale.

From the 6 A’s Individual flywheel, to the Three Duties Leadership flywheel to the broader System itself — all are interconnected, all are interdependent.

The System Flywheel spins fastest when its sub-flywheels are in sync.

Which is why the most important battle is the battle over Your Mind. Your Attention. Your Energy.

Those who benefit from the broken System want you asleep — captured, distracted, divided.

• Engagement vs. Enlightenment.

• Capture vs. Clarity.

• Noise vs. Signal.

This is the choice every individual makes every day.

Stop looking to the external to validate.

Start harnessing the internal to build.

You are the quality of your inputs. Intentionally choose your focus.

When the noise quiets, your intuition speaks. Listen to what resonates.

You know it when you see it.

A population running its own 6 A’s forward demands the same of its Leaders.

And it will recognize when those Leaders are running the System backward.

Awareness leads to Understanding.

Understanding leads to Empowerment.

Empowerment leads to Better Decisions.

Better Decisions lead to a Brighter Future.

That is the process. That is the path.

Understand the flows. Harness the energy. Turn the flywheel forward.

It begins with you.

FLYWHEELS ON FLYWHEELS

Each layer of the System is its own complete flywheel.

Each flywheel is interconnected with all the others.

Together they compose the interconnected, interdependent System Flywheel.

Another linear representation of a ‘non-linear’ process to provide a ‘simple’ summary:

Each row is a different scale.

Each row is its own loop.

The shape is identical.

Interconnected flywheels — all the way down.

LISTEN TO NATURE

In naturally functioning Systems, self-reinforcing flywheels are inherent.

The water cycle is the template we observe most closely.

Sunlight evaporates the ocean. Vapor condenses into clouds. Clouds release rain. Rain feeds rivers. Rivers return to the ocean. Evaporation begins again.

Within it — each cloud system is its own micro-cycle. Each watershed is its own loop. Each storm system is a complete dynamical event.

Thousands of sub-cycles, each spinning on its own.

A flywheel of flywheels.

The same architecture appears in any natural system.

The tree: roots feed the trunk; the trunk feeds the branches; leaves fall, decompose, and return energy to the roots.

Ecosystems within ecosystems. Organisms within ecosystems. Cells within organisms.

Each is a flywheel. Each is part of a flywheel.

The same shape sits beneath every human System.

The Pillars. The Duties. Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny. The Energy Flows Framework. The 6 A’s.

These are not invented frameworks — they are observed flywheels.

Each names a sub-loop in a self-reinforcing system that Nature has been running, in some form, since the beginning.

AquaVis observes the System like Nature.

We do not tell it how to work.

We observe how it does work.

This is why Nature is the ultimate arbiter.

Nature seeks balance.

Nature holds the dialectic alive.

Nature does not care about narratives.

Nature responds to flows.

When the human-built System drifts too far out of balance, the gap eventually closes.

Order → Chaos → Order again

By choice, if wise. By force, if ignored.

Nature does not preserve structures. Nature preserves patterns.

The old System is dead.

The New System is being built — an uncarved block, a living structure, a flywheel waiting for us to collectively shape.

The only question is whether you see it clearly enough to participate.

Time to wake up. Time to build.

Understand the flows. Harness the energy. Turn the flywheel forward.

The Way of AquaVis.

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Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

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Deep-dives: Substack

Short notes: Substack notes

Videos & Podcasts: YouTube

Tweets: X

Website: AquaVis

Disclosures

This commentary has been prepared by AquaVis Advisors LLC (“AquaVis”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does it constitute investment advice or a recommendation to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, AquaVis makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

Any opinions or estimates expressed reflect personal views as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider this material as only one input in their decision-making process and should obtain independent financial, legal, and tax advice before making any investment decisions.

Investing in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and may be affected by changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, credit conditions, and the price or volatility of underlying assets. Certain investments may be speculative and are not suitable for all investors.

AquaVis may, from time to time, have long or short positions in securities or other financial instruments mentioned and may transact in such instruments without further notice.

If we want better leaders, we need to hold them accountable.

If we want to hold them accountable, we need a framework to do so.

Enter: The Three Duties of Power

A framework to guide leaders — and a standard by which to judge them.

Because the purpose of leadership is not to exploit the System.

The purpose of leadership is not to preserve and expand Power for those already in Power.

The Purpose of Leadership is to strengthen the System as a whole — and build a better future.

The Blueprint of Power & The Flywheel

Why do empires rise, falter, and shift?

Because leaders either fulfill the Duties of Power — or fail to.

To understand how, we have to start with what the Duties govern: the System itself.

The base layer of our world is the System — a structure of rules and Policies that shape the flows of ‘energy,’ notably Labor and Capital.

Think of the System as a riverbed: it doesn’t create the water, it directs it.

• Leaders do not create natural forces — the flows of energy. But they do help structure the channels through which those forces flow — via Policies, incentives, rules: collectively, Decisions.

• When the structure is healthy, energy flows productively. Labor and Capital reinforce each other. Families form. Technology advances. Energy expands. Money funds productive growth. The future strengthens. Virtuous Cycle.

• When the structure is corrupted, energy pools in the wrong places. Capital detaches from Labor. Assets inflate while productive capacity deteriorates. The young are blocked from formation. The future is quietly sacrificed. Vicious Cycle.

This is why leadership matters.

Not because leaders control everything.

They do not — as much as they’d like to and often try to (#JurassicPark).

The world is too complex. Nature is too powerful. Systems are too adaptive.

But leaders do shape the structure through which energy flows.

Ultimately, Leaders at the helm have Three Duties to keep the river running clean:

Duty 1 — Shepherd the System. Consistently check whether the structure is still serving its intended purpose. Allow natural forces to find balance. Intervene with restraint.

• This means asking whether the structure is still serving its intended purpose.

• A good system does not require endless intervention. It is designed well enough that natural forces can seek balance through it, letting energy flow.

• That is the true art of leadership: not micromanaging every outcome, but building the right structure so productive energy can flow.

• Rules matter. Incentives matter. Policy matters. If the structure rewards production, formation, and long-term investment, a civilization strengthens. If it rewards extraction, speculation, and short-term self-enrichment, a civilization degrades.

• The System is never static. Nature and its flows constantly seek balance; a poorly designed System and it’s Policies can create serious im-balances — pushing pendulums to extremes (#unsustainably-imbalanced-System).

• Every generation in power inherits a structure built by those before them. Their responsibility is not simply to preserve it. Their responsibility is to observe it, adapt it, and guide it back toward balance when the flows become distorted.

Duty 2 — Strengthen the Pillars of Power. To maintain hegemonic control, leaders must continuously nurture their asymmetric advantages across the three Pillars: Technology (and the Productive Capacity to build it), Energy (to power it), and Money (to fund it).

• Technology is the asymmetric edge that is constantly evolving — the productive capacity, industrial base, intelligence layer, and tools that determine who can build the future.

• Energy is the power source — the abundant, low-cost input that allows physical reality to scale.

• Money is the funding mechanism — the trusted, controlled financial architecture that coordinates capital across time.

• When these Pillars are strong, a system can deter threats, fund growth, and shape the world around it.

• When these pillars weaken, Power becomes performative. The system may still look strong from the outside, but the foundation begins to hollow out underneath.

• A nation that cannot build its own Critical Technologies is not sovereign.

• A nation that cannot secure abundant Energy is not resilient.

• A nation that abuses its Money Pillar to inflate assets rather than fund productive growth eventually destroys trust in the System itself.

• The Pillars must be continuously nurtured. They are not abstractions. They are the foundations of Power.

Duty 3 — Invest in the Productive Labor Force. Through Policies aimed at the prime working-age cohort (25–54), leaders both compound current productivity and seed the future. You optimize for this cohort because they are the engine. They produce. They create. They grow the pie so everyone can be better off.

Duty 3 is where another interconnected flywheel lives.

The Decisions made by leaders today — around Policies influencing the Productive Labor Force and family formation — dictate the Demographics of tomorrow. And the Demographics of tomorrow ultimately determine collective Destiny. And thus, the Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny series.

If growth and longevity of the System are the goals, the young Productive Labor Force must be the focus — with family formation as a focal KPI.

Sounds ‘simple,’ but it is foundational.

Simply, no children = no future.

Over time, these Decisions compound. Leaders make Decisions. Those Decisions shape the Demographic future. That Demographic future determines the Destiny of the System. Decisions made today matter for decades…

And at the root of it everything is mindset — the intention behind the Decisions.

Every generation in Power has a choice along the foundational mindset continuum:

• Self vs. Collective

• Short-term vs. Long-term

• Scarcity vs. Abundance

The choice they make doesn’t just shape their own era. It shapes the demographic and capital structure their grandchildren will inherit. The Decisions flow downstream — across space and time.

Thus, Decisions made decades ago are felt today — the downstream outputs are now clearly observable.

Let’s look at how this has played out over time — starting with an era that got it right.

Good Leadership & The Golden Age (Post-WWII to 2000)

After WWII, the US was the unilateral hegemon and thus the architect of an entirely new System. The leaders of the Lost and GI Generations adopted a growth mindset rooted in collective abundance: grow the pie so everyone is better off. They mastered the Three Duties.

Duty 1 Fulfilled — Shepherding the System

With the majority of Productive Capacity in the US after WWII, leaders in the US dropped Tariffs to near zero on the rest of the world, intentionally shifting some of this capacity out of the US: re-building the rest-of-world Productive Capacity to re-balance the global economy peacefully. This was not naïveté. It was strategy, part of the Marshall Plan — to grow the pie for everyone, including allies who would then anchor the System.

Duty 2 Fulfilled — Strengthening the Pillars

The US invested in evolving asymmetric Technology, dominated Energy (60%+ of global oil), and controlled the Money Pillar (50%+ of global gold). Unilateral hegemonic Power deterred challengers and enforced the System when challenged. ‘Tests’ like the Cold War and the Energy Crisis of the 1970s arose, and were addressed — with the clear understanding that the control over the System depends upon the control of and leadership in the Pillars of Power.

Duty 3 Fulfilled — Investing in the Productive Labor Force

Policies like the GI Bill and the interstate highway system fueled the economy and facilitated massive household formation. All thoughtful Policies aimed at productive capital allocation, with massive multipliers and non-zero-sum outcomes. The result: the Baby Boom. Policies were aligned — at home and abroad. Pointing in the same direction.

Then, as the Boomers — the ‘product’ of the above productive Policies — themselves entered the Productive Labor Force in the 1980s, leaders adapted. They shifted the Policy spotlight to this rising generation — slashing top marginal tax rates on labor from 70% to sub-30% and engineering cheap, accessible housing.

The Boomers came of working age into a System that invested in them.

Leaders of the System chose the collective over the self, the future over the past — directly investing in the Productive Labor Force with the goal of building a better future.

The Virtuous Flywheel spun. Capital and Labor grew in sync. Thoughtful Decisions created an Echo Boom in Demographics, culminating in the balanced, expanding Golden Age of the 1990s.

This is what it looks like when leaders choose the Collective. The Long-term. Abundance.

Bad Leadership & The Degradation (2000–2024)

Around 2000, a dangerous inflection occurred.

As the Boomer cohort exited the Productive Labor Force and began crossing over into Capital — now owning the assets rather than building them — the leaders in Power made a choice. They kept the Policy spotlight squarely on themselves.

Self over Collective. Short-term over Long-term. Scarcity over Abundance.

A massive foundational mindset shift at the leadership level that impacted every interconnected flywheel downstream.

Over the next two-plus decades, those in Power systematically failed all Three Duties.

Duty 1 Failed — Shepherding the System

The System reached balance in the 1990s — the Golden Age. Rather than re-assessing whether the structure still served it’s intended purpose, leaders blindly pushed on. And then, instead of adjusting the System as imbalances clearly accumulated, leaders allowed adversaries and co-opted elites to continue to exploit it — shifting the flows to strengthen adversaries and weaken the US, to enrich and empower the few and impoverish and enslave the many.

Corporate executives, financially incentivized to optimize next quarter’s margins, offshored Productive Labor and Productive Capacity at scale. The System’s feedback loops turned vicious; nobody at the wheel was watching the road. Critical external dependencies began to rise, chokepoints began to surface.

The ‘subverted’ underlying System systematically invested in:

• The old at the expense of the young

• The past at the expense of the future

• Adversaries at the expense of allies

While ‘leaders’ sat ‘idly’ by — or worse, actively enabled it. Instead of Shepherding the System, they preyed upon it — making it rigid and fragile, instead of resilient and adaptable. All the while, refusing to take accountability.

Duty 2 Failed — Strengthening the Pillars

Choosing short-term efficiency over long-term resilience, leaders offshored Critical Product capacity — most dangerously, 90%+ of leading-edge Semiconductor production to Taiwan. They created chokepoints precisely where the Technology Pillar should have been most resilient.

And incumbents — with built up lobbying power, notably from the Financialization Flywheel — actively stifled innovation to maintain power, to suppress change. Using ‘tools’ like regulatory capture to concentrate Power — not allowing the underlying, often disruptive, energy to flow. Technology and the related progress was suffocated — impacting both society and National Security.

The Energy Pillar was kept alive by the shale revolution, but meaningful opportunities for abundant Energy — from nuclear to fusion — were actively suppressed by adversaries and incumbents via regulations, ESG campaigns, and outright corruption.

The Money Pillar was degraded to save Capital. In 2008 and again in 2020, leaders printed trillions to bail out banks and asset holders. This was a profoundly un-productive use of capital. As a result, government debt grew faster than GDP; the ratio crossed 130%.

At every turn after 2000, the choice was the same: inflate Capital. Suppress Labor. Save themselves at the expense of those they were meant to serve.

The Financialization Flywheel ultimately spawned today’s Concentration Cascade.

And the directly related Diversification Illusion.

Duty 3 Failed — Investing in the Productive Labor Force

Unelected and unaccountable Power (notably the Federal Reserve, and related Treasury) explicitly used the fear of inflation to suppress wage growth for the rising generation. The purpose was not stability — it was to expand the relative power of Capital by eroding the power of Labor. Paired with a massive offshoring of Productive Labor (and related Productive Capacity) to China, Labor’s bargaining power went to zero.

Simultaneously, decades of money printing inflated the cost of the things a young family needs most: housing, childcare, healthcare, education. The entrance fee to the System rose faster than wages — and leaders ensured wages couldn’t catch up.

The Productive Capacity was shipped to China. The Productive Labor Force was financially smothered. Both at once.

Instead of Policies encouraging household formation, we got Policies that actively deterred it. Millennials were heavily indebted out of college; everything family-related got more expensive year after year; the math simply did not work.

Rather than building ownership of the System — with aligned incentives for its success — the Productive Labor Force became renters of a System they could no longer afford. With limited incentive to defend it.

The Flywheel spun in the wrong direction: vicious, destructive.

Without families forming, there are fewer children. Without children, there is literally no future. Demographics, Decisions, Destiny — now running in reverse.

The visible output: the Concentration Cascade at every level, from asset ownership, to the stock market composition and beyond. Capital growing exponentially relative to Labor. Wealth, ownership, and decision-making power compressing into a narrower and narrower base.

Those “shepherding” the System chose to systematically invest in the old at the direct expense of the young — sacrificing Destiny for short-term greed.

The Path Forward — Future vs. Past

True leadership takes accountability. It directs energy toward solutions, invests in the future, and empowers the Productive Labor Force — rather than pillaging the System to enrich a select few.

The real divide today is not left vs. right.

It is Future vs. Past. Forward vs. Backwards.

To course correct our Destiny, a new generation of leaders must step up — reject scarcity, re-embrace abundance, and re-anchor the foundational mindset.

It starts there. Mindset first. Policy follows mindset. And everything flows downstream.

What that looks like in practice is restoring the Three Duties of Power:

• Shepherd an intentionally-designed New System. A System designed for the next 50 years, not the last 50 years or the next 50 days.

• Re-build the Pillars of Power. Technology, Energy, Money. Re-shore Critical Production. Discipline the Money Pillar. Unleash the Technology and Energy stacks for the next era. Allow it to all compound.

• Invest in the Productive Labor Force. Make family formation possible again. Make ownership possible again. Make the System something worth defending again.

With a focus on Growth. The Long-term. The Collective.

And it all starts at an individual level. Becoming aware. Re-connecting within. Re-taking control of your energy. Re-directing your intentional attention — your flowing energy — on what matters.

Awareness → Understanding → Empowerment → Better Decisions → Brighter Future.

To fix everything downstream, you must fix the foundation. No more bandaids. No more can-kicking.

Now we have a framework — The Three Duties of Power — to both guide leaders and hold them accountable.

This piece is a subset of the multi-part Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny series. With a focus on the three (3) Duties of those in Power framework laid out in Part I and Part II — which ties directly to the Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny flywheel.

For the deeper walk through how Decisions by those in Power shape our collective Destiny — and how we got here — read the full Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny series.

Additionally, a related X thread.

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Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

Deep-dives: Substack

Short notes: Substack notes

Videos & Podcasts: YouTube

Tweets: X

Website: AquaVis

Disclosures

This commentary has been prepared by AquaVis Advisors LLC (“AquaVis”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does it constitute investment advice or a recommendation to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, AquaVis makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

Any opinions or estimates expressed reflect personal views as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider this material as only one input in their decision-making process and should obtain independent financial, legal, and tax advice before making any investment decisions.

Investing in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and may be affected by changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, credit conditions, and the price or volatility of underlying assets. Certain investments may be speculative and are not suitable for all investors.

AquaVis may, from time to time, have long or short positions in securities or other financial instruments mentioned and may transact in such instruments without further notice.

As the content library and community have grown, I wanted to streamline the structure — making it easier to enter, follow, and revisit.

Enter: The AquaVis Map.

Like all things AquaVis, it is modeled after Nature. And like all AquaVis products, it takes shape from the river — flowing water.

There are now five main sections:

Foundations — The Source
Essential Guides. Core Frameworks. Guiding Principles.
Start here to understand the AquaVis worldview and the mental models used to map the System and its flows.

Insights — Surface Flow
One Visual. One Signal. One Implication.
Quick insights that reveal the hidden currents beneath the surface.

Newsletters — Main Current
Applied Analysis. Deeper Context. Connected Systems.
Newsletters that trace the flows shaping the System through the Pillars of Power.

Whitepapers — Deep Channel
Foundational Frameworks. Enduring Research. Nature Analogs.
Evergreen whitepapers that map the System through the AquaVis nature-inspired lens.

Companions — The Eddy
Visual Maps. Podcast Episodes. Video Walkthroughs.
Companion multimedia materials that revisit, extend, and explore the core written content.

Two sections are new: Foundations and Insights.

Foundations is the starting point — the place to understand the AquaVis worldview, guiding principles, and core frameworks.

Insights is the new distilled format — one visual, one signal, one implication. Each Insight connects to a deeper Newsletter or Whitepaper, creating a faster way to engage with the core research.

The goal is simple: make it easier to follow the flow.

AquaVis moves like a river — with direction, depth, and rhythm. Some sections move quickly. Others run deeper.

Start at The Source.

Observe the Surface Flow.

Follow the Main Current.

Delve into the Deep Channel.

Circle back through The Eddy.

Each section offers a different way to enter the flow — from surface signals to enduring frameworks.

Flowing water is flowing energy made visible.

AquaVis is here to map it.

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Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

Deep-dives: Substack

Short notes: Substack notes

Videos & Podcasts: YouTube

Tweets: X

Website: AquaVis

Disclosures

This commentary has been prepared by AquaVis Advisors LLC (“AquaVis”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does it constitute investment advice or a recommendation to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, AquaVis makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

Any opinions or estimates expressed reflect personal views as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider this material as only one input in their decision-making process and should obtain independent financial, legal, and tax advice before making any investment decisions.

Investing in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and may be affected by changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, credit conditions, and the price or volatility of underlying assets. Certain investments may be speculative and are not suitable for all investors.

AquaVis may, from time to time, have long or short positions in securities or other financial instruments mentioned and may transact in such instruments without further notice.

And for the last 15+ months, I mapped a step-by-step sequence toward a Peaceful Re-Balancing between the US & China — documenting the signposts along the way.

Highlighting how the old System was set to end — and needed to, as it has become unsustainably imbalanced.

With the parallel the opportunity to build a New System in it’s place — shifting back toward a growth mindset, away from scarcity.

Now more are beginning to see the currents under the surface starting to more visibly manifest — making this whole process ‘clear’ to more people.

The ‘surface’ narrative noise and related panic around:

• Tariffs

• Allies Abandoning the US

• US/Iran Conflict

• Strait Closure

The list goes on. The symmetry? The experts and all the narratives were wrong.

In June/July expect more downstream ‘outputs’ likely become visible, notably:

• oil to drop

• rates to drop

• peace to spread

• equities to surge

• ‘taboo’ disclosure to rise (UAPs, aliens, government corruption, et al.)

Forecasted this all over a year ago with a ‘crescendo’ date of July 4, 2026.

So far, tracking according to plan — with a full content archive to support it.

This all sounded ‘crazy’ a year ago — largely ignored and/or attacked.

Pattern recognition + Imagination can be quite powerful.

‘Lateral’ thinking sounds ‘crazy’ in a world that has rewarded and become used to linear thinking for decades.

The piece below helps connect many of the dots across the AquaVis content archive — making the underlying intentional plan over the last 15+ months much more apparent. While also providing additional insight into the AquaVis dot-connecting process.

The piece below was built, in particular, for those who are new to the AquaVis Community.

Check it out:

And the Pillars of Power Framework that helped forecast and construct all of that content also doubles as an application layer to help harness your money — The Pillars of Power Portfolio.

Using this foundational construct to help recognize key pivot points — all of the big ones laid out neatly over the last year in this piece, with signals ahead as well:

An intuitive and real-life-applicable framework to help: Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

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Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

Deep-dives: Substack

Short notes: Substack notes

Videos & Podcasts: YouTube

Tweets: X

Website: AquaVis

Disclosures

This commentary has been prepared by AquaVis Advisors LLC (“AquaVis”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does it constitute investment advice or a recommendation to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, AquaVis makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

Any opinions or estimates expressed reflect personal views as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider this material as only one input in their decision-making process and should obtain independent financial, legal, and tax advice before making any investment decisions.

Investing in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and may be affected by changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, credit conditions, and the price or volatility of underlying assets. Certain investments may be speculative and are not suitable for all investors.

AquaVis may, from time to time, have long or short positions in securities or other financial instruments mentioned and may transact in such instruments without further notice.

Building off of the foundational intro piece from the beginning of April: The Pillars of Power Portfolio. These updates will become more regular — typically ~1x/month, or ad hoc as opportunities arise.

In the meantime, I’ve published several update Notes since early April (some re-published below), but I realize many are not necessarily following those (easiest in the app, if you wanted to).

I’ve been working on wrapping up the foundational material, along with making the content more accessible — stay tuned.

Given how quickly everything is changing, Notes were an easier way to quickly offer thoughts in parallel to the above.

This ‘compressed change’ is typical of phase transitions within markets. But right now we’re also undergoing a phase transition within the foundational System itself — The End of the old & The Beginning of the New delves into it.

So things are even ‘crazier.’

Simply, volatility — which is essentially the speed and magnitude of change — rises during phase transitions. It’s intuitive that volatility would rise as you move from an era of order (with linear change) to a time of dis-order (with non-linear change), which will eventually move back toward a period of order (with new rules and a new system).

All of this is characteristic of a ‘4th Turning,’ which is really just a Confluence of multiple waves.

Understanding where you are in the multiple waves is key to understanding and harnessing the ‘flow.’

Which is the major focus of the foundational content and framework.

To prepare.

So you can intentionally respond — not mindlessly react.

And even better, you can thoughtfully participate — imagining and shaping the future.

Re-frame disruption as opportunity.

My ‘edge’ lies in the realm of pattern recognition paired with imagination.

While many focus on the superficial ‘noise’ perpetuated by the fear-driven-scarcity-minded-media.

The real opportunities are emerging under the surface.

As pendulums swing in the old-to-New System phase transition.

While mainstream media trips over themselves to keep you distracted, observe what is actually happening.

The ‘experts’ got Tariffs wrong. They got US/Iran wrong. They got US/China wrong.

Time to reassess based on actual track records. Linear media and ‘experts’ are lost in this non-linear transition to a New System.

Start within. Curate, curate curate.

On to the markets and the PoP portfolio framing…

KEY PIVOT POINTS

As noted, I’ve highlighted a few key re-balancing signals — primarily via notes (which would be way better if they were easily searchable) and X.

The number of pivot points over the last year or so is ‘unusual’ in the sense that there are more than typical.

But this is actually typical for a market and underlying System phase transition. Volatility is picking up, right on schedule.

reminds us what volatility can look like during System phase transitions.

This volatility creates opportunities if you are prepared with a framework and a process. But it can ‘chop you up’ if you are un-aware of the System, using old linear models, and/or chasing headlines without a process.

Delving into some the key Pillars re-balancing pivot points over the last ~year.

From the local bottom in early April 2025 focused on Technology and Money (gold).

To the re-balance toward Energy, out of Technology in early November 2025.

With positive progress along the way.

Before reaching an extreme and triggering another re-balance at the end of March.

Technology (XLK) was down ~15% over that November through March period:

While Energy (XLE) was up over 45%:

A 60%+ point spread over 4 months, with a lot more opportunity under-the-surface (down-the-funnel). Ultimately with the Energy outperformance reaching an extreme — triggering a re-balance out of Energy, toward Technology in late March.

With several signals feeding into the downstream process along the way.

From ‘Big Money’ rotating indications:

To oil-local-topping signals — from media headlines to ensure exit liquidity:

To record extremes in several indicators (h/t ):

To magazine covers that are (intentionally) contra-indicators:

If you know where to focus your attention — the 3 Pillars of Power — it becomes much easier to connect the dots and recognize the extremes. Not day-trading, just re-balancing the PoP portfolio at those extremes.

That is the Pillars of Power portfolio application layer in action.

Which becomes even more potent when it aligns with your intuition — using the Pillars framework to order your mind and better understand the world.

As noted, after the extreme Energy outperformance, the PoP portfolio re-focused on Technology at the end of March, away from Energy.

Which has worked — Technology (XLK) up over 40% in less than two months

While Energy is down a little over 5%.

Particularly if you decided to venture down the funnel:

Notably in areas at the bottom-of-the-funnel of the Pillar in focus (OW) — Technology in this case.

ONTO up ~60% from late March.

And ideally in areas where the hegemon(s) are directly focused.

INTC up over 200% since late March.

And now many of these moves have reached extremes in record time — removing the embedded asymmetry.

With a Technology reduction re-balance signal on May 15th.

So November through March, Energy outperformed Technology by ~60%. And then April through mid May, Technology outperformed Energy by ~50%. All at the index level — with more extremes (and opportunity) beneath the surface.

Simply re-balancing at those extremes has been quite fruitful.

Re-balancing signals ahead will be what they are. My view is this Technology ‘trim’ — which coincided with a lot of events (Trump/Xi, Cerebras IPO, et al.) is likely a pullback ahead of a coming blow-off top.

While the extreme signals are beginning to pile up (discussed below), the Policy support is still in place, for now.

With all of this building toward a July 4th crescendo, in my view — upcoming Mar-a-Lago Accord will delve further.

In the meantime, many are confused by how the market could be at all-time highs with so much ‘chaos.’ Most of the confusion stems from letting the external dictate where you focus your attention — the media purposefully over-complicates things and creates intentional noise to distract.

This is why it is so important to have a framework and a process, notably at once-in-a-generation times like these. It does not mean you will always be correct, but it does help keep you focused on what matters.

The reality today is:

• New liquidity is being pumped into the System via RMP

• Policy (notably OBBBA) is supportive for 2026 spending

• You want to focus on who is receiving these flows, while simultaneously monitoring the stability of the System

• The Pillars of Power keeps you focused on what matters, while AquaVis overall stays focused on the flows and the underlying System

‘Flows don’t lie.’

Follow the flow - AquaVis.

This is what AquaVis is built on. Whether it’s the flows of Money (energy) through the System and stock market, or the flows of Energy around the World, or the flows of energy in Society.

Mapping the flows helps connect dots and make sense of things. And it’s much easier with a framework to help you understand the underlying incentives, what is important, and where to focus your attention…

FOCUS & LOOKING AHEAD

As noted, the extreme signals are beginning to pile up:

• Cerebras IPO — with changed rules to accelerate insider selling and index inclusion

• SpaceX accelerated it’s IPO to mid-June — with changed rules to accelerate insider selling and index inclusion

The old System is ending, and those ‘in the know’ are pillaging it on the way out.

They are literally changing the rules of the old System to help facilitate the exit liquidity process:

• streamlining IPO stock selling (no longer 6 month lockup)

• streamlining IPO index inclusion (removing requirements; expediting)

• opening PE/PC to 401Ks (opportunity to dump bad assets in retirement accounts)

It is quite obvious.

And reminder — the financial industry is not there to help you. You are the product they monetize.

Media, Markets, & Mindset lays this all out, as does the ‘under-read’ Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny - Society.

Do not be the exit liquidity for the Private Equity or Private Credit industries.

Or the over-valued IPOs they are racing to get to market with absolutely absurd rule-changes to facilitate the ‘dumping.’

Time and again, it’s become clear the Media is there to help facilitate this charade — they manipulate to help Big Money take your Money in the Markets, using Technology to do it more efficiently (see how Pillars enables Power at all levels).

It is literally a coordinated ‘racket’ to:

• Hijack your Attention

• Manipulate your Mind

• Take your Money

• Control your Future

The opposite of what AquaVis seeks to do:

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

To better understand how this ‘racket’ works, check out this deep-dive — Stock Market Ownership & Control — connecting the dots on who actually controls the stock markets and corporate board rooms.

And once you understand it, then you can better choose to direct your energy on things you do control — to play your game, not theirs.

Which ties nicely into the focus of the AquaVis process.

As noted in the foundational piece, I focus my time/energy on the big areas. Where all of the cycles are converging, where all of the rivers are flowing together: Confluence.

This helps me focus on the big ‘themes’ that matter and will be persistent for years — using the Pillars of Power as a filter.

And this helps me ignore the things that do not matter.

I do not care about one-off quarterly earnings. Or what some talking head at the Fed says on a Tuesday. It’s not right or wrong, it’s just the game you choose to play.

Over the last year, an example of a big item at the Confluence of AI, Semicap Equipment, and Reshoring: Advanced Packaging — the fastest growing sub-segment within a broadly growing market and a current bottleneck.

That filter then naturally flows toward finding the best, asymmetric expression of it: ONTO as an example in this case (up almost 3x over the last year, ~2x YTD).

This is just one example to help provide insight into the process — which is highly scalable and repeatable. Everything in the defined universe runs through these filters. And a few names within each Pillar make it to the bottom of the funnel.

To the point on the ‘defined universe,’ it is just as important to know what to avoid.

Anything that falls outside of the Pillars of Power is removed.

For example, I do not invest in the Consumer Discretionary realm — sorry rubber ducks. From hotels, to cruise ships, to Gucci loafers — not a focus, for a multitude of reasons. They do not fit within the Pillars — hegemons do not care and will not care — and the Consumption pendulum has shifted too far in the West (I’m focused on Production).

You can absolutely make money doing this. But I choose to define and play my own game, not someone else’s.

Additionally, I do not invest in adversaries — e.g., China, Russia, Iran, North Korea for now. If they eventually choose to join the New System, burden-share, and play by the rules, I will absolutely reassess.

Otherwise, an easy elimination. I choose not to enable the adversaries who set out to destroy you. Unlike the co-opted elites over the last 30 years — who optimized for their own riches and self-righteousness at the expense of everyone in the US/West.

I will invest in Allies who join the New System — notably Latin America, where I see a huge opportunity over the next decade. But right now, the US is the current focus based upon the signals.

And based upon on the process, I am staying away from Japan, and basically all of Europe — I believe Germany, UK et al. have topped, at least locally.

Where you invest your Money is an important vote. You help shape the future when you intentionally choose.

I’ll do a deeper dive on these foundational investing principles that are core to the process.

This piece was another update to give you a glimpse into the workings of the process.

Meanwhile, the simple equal-weighted version of the Pillars of Power Portfolio — XLK, XLE, GLD — is doing quite well YTD relative to the market.

If all you did was buy an equal proportion of XLK, XLE, and GLD on January 2nd — you’d be up ~21%, almost 3x the market, with much better metrics.

Not bad for simple.

Remember the Pillars are the structure — you choose how to use it and fill it out.

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Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

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Disclosures

This commentary has been prepared by AquaVis Advisors LLC (“AquaVis”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does it constitute investment advice or a recommendation to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, AquaVis makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

Any opinions or estimates expressed reflect personal views as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider this material as only one input in their decision-making process and should obtain independent financial, legal, and tax advice before making any investment decisions.

Investing in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and may be affected by changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, credit conditions, and the price or volatility of underlying assets. Certain investments may be speculative and are not suitable for all investors.

AquaVis may, from time to time, have long or short positions in securities or other financial instruments mentioned and may transact in such instruments without further notice.

• Tariffs.

• Greenland.

• Panama.

• The Middle East.

• Rare Earths.

• Stablecoins.

• Space.

• China.

These were not randomly separate.

They were intentionally sequenced.

And this piece systematically connects all of the dots.

Displaying how the just-concluded Trump/Xi summit and subsequent Peaceful Re-Balancing initiation were forecastable (and in fact, were forecasted… a year ago).

Revealing the deeply interconnected currents ‘under the surface’ that most missed.

All pieced together as part of a strategy to end the scarcity-subverted old System that systematically weakened the US/West and perpetuated imbalances — both across countries and within. And build a New System — focused on growth and re-balancing.

Natural systems naturally seek balance: Water always finds its level.

But when you dam it up for decades — cap the flows, redirect the currents, let a few control the reservoir — pressure builds. And when the dam breaks, everything moves at once.

That’s where we are. The System phase transition.

But how did we get here?

This brief piece connects the foundational deep-dive content published over the last year+.

Providing both the Context and Sequencing to better understand what is going on today.

Each current flows into the next. Read it as one long arc, not a collection of isolated events.

The Trump/Xi meeting — forecasted over a year ago — that just concluded is the culmination of 15 months of deeply interconnected events.

Marking both the end of the old System. And the beginning of the New.

And thus, the AquaVis mantra, every thing is a wave.

Let’s connect the dots across the ‘currents,’ starting from the beginning…

Current I: The Unsustainably Imbalanced System

It didn’t happen overnight.

The Post-WWII System was built with a purpose: rebuild a war-torn world. The US dropped its tariffs, shipped off its Production, and provided the Security umbrella for global trade. It worked — almost too well.

By the 1990s, the US was at its Golden Age Peak — leading across all three Pillars of Power: Technology, Energy, and Money. The System had achieved its intent: the world was rebuilt, trade was flowing, prosperity was expanding. Things were largely in balance.

Then the pendulum kept swinging. Past equilibrium. Past balance. Into fragility.

The US systematically offshored its Productive Capacity — from manufacturing to Critical Products — while Consumption ballooned, debt compounded, and the few captured most of the gains. A few ‘fractals’:

• US debt grew faster than GDP — with interest expenses now exceeding Defense spend (Ferguson’s Law: when that happens, you risk no longer being a great Power)

• The top 10% control 60%+ of assets while the bottom 50% control just over 5%

• China’s share of global manufacturing grew from ~3% in 1990 to ~44% by 2022

The pendulums swung to extremes: Consumption over Production. Capital over Labor. Short-term siphoning over Long-term building.

Left alone, this System would have collapsed under its own weight within the decade. Not a forecast — an inevitability. Natural Systems always seek balance.

“The System as it is structured today is not sustainable. Period. It would collapse under its own weight within the decade.”

— Tariffs (Part I)

Relevant Deep-Dive Content:

• 📄 The System Series: Tariffs (Part I) — The Unbalanced System & The Tariff Shock

• 📄 The System Series: Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny (Part I) — The Rise of US Hegemony & The Creation and Expansion of the Post WWII System

• 📄 PoP: The Multi-Decade Quiet War & The System Phase Transition (Part I) — From the Exploitation of the old System to the Building of the New System

Current II: The Quiet War — How the old System Was Exploited

While the US slept, adversaries studied.

After the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis, China concluded they could not defeat the US in its own game. So they ‘changed’ the game — redirecting the System flows to their benefit.

The approach was laid out explicitly in the 1999 PLA book Unrestricted Warfare: defeat a technologically superior opponent not through military force, but by systematically weakening it from within.

And they executed against it — quietly and deliberately — for decades:

• Production warfare — shifting IP, Productive Capacity, and Labor out of the US and into China

• Media warfare — subverting open platforms to proliferate false narratives and drive internal polarization

• Drug warfare — the fentanyl crisis, dis-abling the Productive Labor Force

• Resource warfare — controlling rare earth mineral processing, creating Critical Product Chokepoints

• Cyber warfare — systematically exploiting digital vulnerabilities

• Proxy warfare — supplying Russia and Iran to spread the hegemon thin

In parallel, China stopped buying US Treasuries (~2013), launched the Belt & Road Initiative, and manifested Made in China 2025 — essentially taking US Dollars (bits) and converting them into Physical Power (atoms). The opposite of what the US was doing.

The System designed to re-build the world was re-directed to weaken its architect.

The imbalances we see today are a downstream result of the subversion of the System by adversaries and the co-opted elite decades ago.

Most have been asleep. Intentionally kept that way.

“Another element of the genius behind the exploitation strategy was how ‘quiet’ it was and seemingly still is. So quiet, many are still asleep. Intentionally quiet to suppress the natural response.”

— The Multi-Decade Quiet War (Part I)

Relevant Deep-Dive Content:

• 📄 PoP: The Multi-Decade Quiet War & The System Phase Transition (Part I) — From the Exploitation of the old System to the Building of the New System

• 📄 PoP: China & The Xi Agenda — A Look at China under President Xi

• 📄 Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny (Part II) — The Degradation of US Hegemony & The Beginning of the End of the Post WWII System

Current III: Tariffs — The Wake Up Call

Most are un-aware of the ‘water’ they are swimming in.

Aware of the symptoms — wealth inequality, generational demographic divides, the unaffordability of housing, the absurdity of stock market valuations et al. — but not the root causes — the System itself and the foundational Policies.

Thus it’s difficult to change an underlying System most don’t even appreciate exists.

Particularly when the few — co-opted ‘leaders’ at the top — profit so immensely from it’s existence — intentionally keeping the many ‘asleep.’

Enter Tariffs.

Tariffs were never about tariffs. They were a multi-pronged tool — a catalyst injected into a fragile, unsustainably imbalanced System to force it to recalibrate from the foundation.

The “shock and awe” delivery was intentional. Small moves get ignored. Extreme moves force everyone to the table — instantly.

The absurdity of the initial figures got attention. The Reciprocal Tariffs created Perspective: wait, the rest of the world has been tariffing the US this whole time?

The Goals were never just revenue; that’s a temporary byproduct. They were layered:

1. Wake Up Call — the System is unsustainably imbalanced; we’re serious, let’s chat

2. Mirror — highlight the current Un-Fair and Un-Free Trade

3. Free Trade — the path to truly free trade is first paved with reciprocal fairness

4. Reshoring — Critical Product supply chains (semiconductors, pharma, rare earths) must come home; resilience over efficiency

5. Peaceful Re-Balancing — US reduces over-Consumption, China reduces over-Production

6. Revenue — a toll to access the New System and its Security umbrella — Tariffs, Tolls, & Tribute

Tariffs burned the boats. The only way is through.

“Once you are truly aware of the System, you cannot ‘unsee’ it. Doing nothing is a choice not to change the current System. Tariffs take that status quo — don’t wake me up — option off the table.”

— Tariffs (Part I)

Relevant Deep-Dive Content:

• 📄 The System Series: Tariffs (Part I) — The Unbalanced System & The Tariff Shock

• 📄 The System Series: Tariffs (Part II) — Tariffs & The Re-Balancing of the Global System

Current IV: Rebuilding the Pillars — Internal Flows Re-Directed

Simply ‘blowing up’ the old System without any New System to transition to would be counter-productive.

Context and sequencing matter, a lot.

While Tariffs were the external catalyst initiating the conversations around the ending of the old System and the architecting of the New, the Trump Admin was also systematically rebuilding internally from the foundation — across all three Pillars of Power:

Technology: Leadership in AI is The Race to control the Global World Order.

• The AI Action Plan, DOGE-mapping systems, removal of prohibitive regulations, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, et al. — all designed to unleash the private sector and accelerate the US AI Technology Stack.

Energy: Energy Dominance to power Technology and strengthen Money.

• Drill baby drill, Nuclear renaissance, Section 232 investigations across critical mineral areas, et al. to strengthen the Energy Pillar — required to power Technology.

Money: Re-fortify the Money Pillar and re-direct flows.

• The GENIUS Act (stablecoins), Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, America First Investment Policy, Sovereign Wealth Fund, and the re-direction of flows — away from financial (generally unproductive) assets, toward productive physical assets in Technology and Energy.

The internal flows were being re-directed. The foundation was being poured.

2025 set the foundation. 2026 is the expansion.

“Lay out a Vision and a set of Goals. Unleash a catalyst to drive Action and Change. Engage in constructive Dialogue. Create a mutually beneficial Plan to achieve the Vision.”

— US & The Trump Agenda — 6 Months In

Relevant Deep-Dive Content:

• 📄 PoP: US & The Trump Agenda — 6 Months In — A Deep-Dive into the Trump Admin’s First 6 Months

• 📄 PoP: The Multi-Decade Quiet War & The System Phase Transition (Part II) — Deep-Dive into the Trump Admin’s Re-Building of the US’ Pillars of Power & The old to New System Phase Transition

Current V: Focusing on the New Chokepoints — The Arctic & Space

While everyone was caught up in the tariff noise, the real moves were being made in Cold Places .

The Arctic and Space are not niche topics. They are the next generation of Chokepoints — and whoever controls them controls the future.

The Arctic sits at the nexus of all three Pillars:

• Technology: Critical hub for global communications, undersea cable infrastructure, and Satellite connectivity.

• Energy: ~90 billion barrels of recoverable oil, 1,670 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and vast critical mineral reserves beneath the ice.

• Money: New trade routes are emerging as ice melts — routes that bypass the current US-controlled sea lanes, opening the door to non-USD trade

Greenland is not a quirky real estate comment. It is the hub of the emerging Arctic sphere, a Golden Dome anchor, and a critical resource reserve. The Trump Administration’s focus here — called out over a year ago — is now fully visible.

Space is a new frontier and the ultimate higher ground:

• Technology: SpaceX controls nearly two-thirds of all active satellites, Starlink is the communications backbone that makes modern warfare possible, and the Golden Dome is not Sci-Fi — it is a direct application of the asymmetric Technology strategy, enabled by SpaceX.

• Energy: Space is the frontier for effectively infinite solar capture and clean power — from space-based solar projects, to Helium‑3 on the Moon for fusion, to energy‑intensive AI data centers and manufacturing moved off-planet.

• Money: Projects like the Golden Dome are funded with tens of billions from the One Big Beautiful Bill, while resources such as asteroid Psyche’s critical minerals (~10 quintillion dollars) and lunar Helium‑3 represent multi‑generational monetary upside for whoever controls and develops them.

The re-focusing of energy on these New Spheres goes hand-in-hand with strengthening the US’ Pillars of Power — ‘future-proofing’ them by making the investments and re-directing energy toward them now.

The US was not only rebuilding the present Pillars. It was positioning around the future chokepoints before the New System fully arrived.

Meanwhile, China is not sitting still — building BeiDou (GPS alternative), SpaceSail (Starlink alternative), and a Three-Body Computing Constellation of space-based AI data centers.

The multi-pronged Race is not relegated to Earth.

“The Battle for AI Supremacy — ‘Space Race 2.0’ within Cold War 2.0 — is composed of multiple building blocks across multiple spheres: Arctic, Space, Ocean.”

— PoP: The Arctic & Its Rising Importance

Relevant Deep-Dive Content:

• 📄 PoP: The Arctic & Its Rising Importance — An Exploration of the Arctic and its Role in the Evolving Global Order

• 📄 PoP: Space & The New Frontier — A Dive into the Importance of Space Security & the Exploration of Space Abundance

Current VI: The Middle East Deals — Template for the New System

This was the clearest signal most missed.

While the US was simultaneously:

• Re-building it’s Pillars of Power

• Re-shoring Critical Product Production

• Re-focusing energy on emerging New Spheres

In parallel they were Re-writing the System architecture with nations around the world — starting with the biggest surplus countries (notably historically ‘neutral’ ones).

In June 2025, the US signed landmark deals with the Middle East: Money and Energy in exchange for Technology. The Pillars of Power, in action.

These were not just a business deals. They set the blueprint for the New System. Directly highlighted at the time, and proven correct since:

• The Middle East has surplus Money (from Energy sales) and surplus Energy — but deficits in leading-edge Technology

• The US has surplus Technology (AI Tech Stack, Semiconductors, Starlink) — and needs cheap Money and ~Energy for reshoring and the AI buildout

• The combination is non-zero-sum: both sides are better off — built with a mindset of growth and abundance, like the original old System before it was subverted by scarcity

Additionally, this New System architecture directly flows into strengthening the US’ Pillars of Power — a natural self-reinforcing flywheel that just started spinning.

Further, the symbolism was enormous: the Middle East chose the US over China. Nvidia over Huawei. OpenAI over DeepSeek. Starlink over SpaceSail. Google over Alibaba. Once you make an architecture decision like this — the switching costs compound for decades.

The Capital flows changed too. Middle Eastern ‘petrodollar’ Money that previously flowed into US Treasuries, real estate, and stocks (financial, often unproductive assets — ‘bits’) is now being directed into Critical US Technology and Energy Infrastructure — Physical and Productive (atoms).

The Re-Balancing the System needed written into the ‘code’ itself.

Every nation has strengths and deficits. The New System is simply a framework for connecting and balancing them — with the Pillars of Power as the currency.

“These deals ultimately set a template for much of what is to come. Every Nation has its own strengths and weaknesses, surpluses and deficits, to address — and all revolve around the Pillars of Power.”

— The Middle East & The Emergence of a New System

Relevant Deep-Dive Content:

• 📄 PoP: The Middle East & The Emergence of a New System — A Deep Dive into the Importance of the Recent US/Middle East Deals & How They Signify the Emergence of a New System

• 📄 PoP: US & China — Important Perspective on Cold War 2.0

Current VII: Commandeering Chokepoints — Controlling the Flow

With the New System’s foundation in place, the external agenda accelerated.

This is where most analysts lose the thread — each action looks isolated. Panama Canal. Greenland. Venezuela. Iran. Cuba. But they’re not isolated. They are a sequence. And they all revolve around: Energy chokepoints.

Why Energy? Because it is China’s weakest Pillar. China is an energy importer — a dependency in a world where Energy = Industrial Power = AI Compute.

Work through the map:

• Panama Canal — critical chokepoint for trade (Money) and Energy

• Greenland — chokepoint + resources + Golden Dome Arctic hub

• Venezuela — oil reserves, critical minerals, hub for UUVs and Space, gold reserves

• Russia’s Shadow Fleet — Energy for China, Money for Russia; control it and you tighten China’s Energy supply

• Iran / Strait of Hormuz — embodies all three Pillars; the forcing function between old and new System

• Cuba — adversary hub in the Western Hemisphere, particularly for UUVs

• Indonesia / Strait of Malacca — ~80% of China’s Energy imports pass through here. Next in the sequence.

Control the chokepoints, control the flows. Control the flows, control the leverage.

China cannot respond overtly without waking up the West — which would trigger the exact industrial mobilization their entire strategy depended on preventing. The US recognized this and turned it against them.

The Hormuz blockade is the forcing function. It ends the old System’s flows. It exposes China’s dependency on the subverted old System. It makes every remaining country choose: join the New System, or get cut off from US security and AI access. The old System is dead and not an option.

Further, these events are perspective-inducing.

The sequence is deliberate:

1. Fix the foundation at home (Pillars rebuild)

2. Build the New System

3. Secure the Western Hemisphere

4. Control shadow fleets

5. Create ‘chaos’ at key chokepoints

6. Leverage chaos to strengthen US’ Energy & Money Pillars

7. Expose China’s dependency upon the subverted old System & its Energy flows

8. Establish peak leverage ahead of negotiations with China — Trump/Xi meeting

The Trump Admin re-directed the subverted flows of the old System to work for them instead of against the US — the media-led chaos kept everyone ‘lost,’ China’s energy and old System dependencies were exposed, the World was forced to recognize it depends upon US security. Flow Analysis of natural systems — the heart of AquaVis.

“End the old System, end those flows. Build the New System, re-direct those flows.”

— The Multi-Decade Quiet War (Part I)

Relevant Deep-Dive Content:

• 📄 PoP: The Multi-Decade Quiet War & The System Phase Transition (Part II) — Deep-Dive into the Trump Admin’s Re-Building of the US’ Pillars of Power & The old to New System Phase Transition

• 📄 PoP: US & China — Important Perspective on Cold War 2.0

Current VIII: The Peaceful Re-Balancing — China Comes to the Table

This is what it was all building toward.

The entire sequencing over the last year+ was to build leverage relative to China.

The Peaceful Re-Balancing was the explicit forecast from the very beginning — written before the Middle East deals, before Hormuz, before Venezuela et al.

The logic was always simple: the US is the primary over-consumer. China is the primary over-producer. A Re-Balancing — US reduces Consumption (increases Production), China reduces Production (increases Consumption) — is non-zero-sum. Both sides can be better off if structured intelligently.

But you don’t get to non-zero-sum negotiations from a position of weakness. You get there from a position of maximum leverage.

The sequence was the leverage-building exercise:

• Tariffs signaled the end of the old System and got everyone to the table

• Pillars of Power rebuild strengthened the US foundation

• Middle East deals created the New System template and reduced US dependencies

• Chokepoint strategy exposed China’s Energy vulnerability and old System dependence, giving the US asymmetric leverage

• Now, from a position of strength, the negotiations with China truly begin

The forecast: China is offered entrance into the New System — if it plays by the rules.

• The carrots: access to the US AI stack (notably semiconductor capital equipment, tied to Nvidia purchases), the US market, normalized relations, et al.

• The stick: exclusion from the New System; the old System no longer exists as an option.

This absolutely will NOT stop the current parallel focus on Critical Product Production Re-shoring, the Pillars of Power Re-Building, and the related ongoing Strategic Rivalry — Cold War 2.0 with Space Race 2.0 within – composed of multiple building blocks (Semiconductors, Compute, Data, Algorithms) across multiple spheres (Arctic, Space, Ocean).

The Peaceful Re-Balancing within the ongoing Strategic Rivalry.

#DialecticThinking

And now the US & China have set up bilateral groups to help facilitate this Peaceful Re-Balancing envisioned over a year ago:

• Board of Trade - continuing and expanding trade in Non-Critical areas (like our lovely rubber ducks) — a distinction I created a year ago.

• Board of Investment - evaluating opportunities for Chinese ‘surplus’ investment into US Productive Capacity (atoms), instead of just ‘bits’ (Treasuries, Stocks, et al).

The combination would naturally Re-Balance an otherwise unsustainably imbalanced System. China increases Consumption; US increases Production. Surplus capital flows toward Productive Capacity (atoms) in the US, not just un-productive financial assets (bits) — mirroring the US/Middle East deals.

The Peaceful Re-Balancing is not idealism. It is the logical endpoint of a strategy designed from First Principles, executed in sequence, and now arriving at its ‘final’ chapter. Which is really just the beginning of the New System.

The Currents beneath the Chaos are there for those who choose to ‘see.’

“On the margin, China needs to shift its balance more toward Consumption, while the US needs to shift its balance more toward Production – a peaceful, non-zero sum outcome would be ideal. The more we can observe what is actually happening, understand why, and listen to each Party’s perspective, the more likely a creative win-win situation arises.”

— China & The Xi Agenda — February 2025

“The US is likely to re-engage in deeper negotiations with China once this new System is in place and fortified with Allies... That is when the Trump Admin will likely have its peak negotiating leverage — and will offer China entrance into this new System, if it plays by the Rules.”

— Tariffs (Part II) — May 2025

“The Peaceful Re-Balancing has begun. Old System is dead. New System is emerging.”

— Note — May 2026

Relevant Deep-Dive Content:

• 📄 The System Series: Tariffs (Part II) — Tariffs & The Re-Balancing of the Global System

• 📄 PoP: US & China — Important Perspective on Cold War 2.0

• 📄 PoP: US & China — A Brief Update on Cold War 2.0

• 📄 The End of the old & The Beginning of the New — Over the last 15 Months the US Systematically ended the old System & Built a New One

The Sequence at a Glance

One More Thing

Every component of this sequence was laid out in advance.

Not because of intelligence or inside information. But because of a framework — the Pillars of Power — and the discipline to follow the logic rather than the noise.

Awareness of where you are in the waves, and an understanding of the objectives, allows you to see the bigger picture. It does not mean getting everything right. But it does mean understanding the forest instead of getting lost in the trees.

While the experts who have gotten everything wrong will inevitably say it was not predictable. Refusing to take accountability.

Or they’ll pretend they had it correct all along. Refusing transparency.

Take a step back. Check their track record. Curate, curate, curate.

Re-focus your time and attention — your flowing energy — on those with pure intention seeking to nourish your mind.

And if you missed the sequencing over the last year+, that’s fine.

But stop digging. Stop listening to the manipulated media and the related ‘experts.’ Reconnect within. Think for yourself.

This is just the beginning of a new wave. The beginning of a new era of opportunity for those willing to re-frame disruption as opportunity.

The point of this foundational content is to attempt to boost awareness.

Awareness → Understanding → Empowerment → Better Decisions → Brighter Future

While the media wanted you watching penguins and empty shelves.

The sequence was always there… under the superficial surface.

Foundational Reading:

• Content User Guide — the full reading list in logical order

• Pillars of Power Primer — the framework that underlies all of it

If you enjoy the content, subscribe.

Subscribe now

If it is useful, share.

Share

Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

Deep-dives: Substack

Short notes: Substack notes

Videos & Podcasts: YouTube

Tweets: X

Website: AquaVis

Disclosures

This commentary has been prepared by AquaVis Advisors LLC (“AquaVis”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does it constitute investment advice or a recommendation to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, AquaVis makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

Any opinions or estimates expressed reflect personal views as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider this material as only one input in their decision-making process and should obtain independent financial, legal, and tax advice before making any investment decisions.

Investing in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and may be affected by changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, credit conditions, and the price or volatility of underlying assets. Certain investments may be speculative and are not suitable for all investors.

AquaVis may, from time to time, have long or short positions in securities or other financial instruments mentioned and may transact in such instruments without further notice.

“Everything old is new again” — Jonathan Swift

Around 80 years ago, the US-led old System was born.

• The System was built after WWII with a foundational underlying mindset of Growth — grow the pie, and everyone can be better off (+ / +).

• Focused on the long-term and the collective, the System worked for over 50 years with expansion, prosperity, and relative balance — achieving a ‘peak’ Golden Age by the 1990s. This piece covers it in depth.

Around 30 years ago, the US-led old System was quietly infiltrated and subverted.

• The System was slowly taken over by a ‘collective parasite,’ shifting the foundational mindset away from Growth, toward scarcity — shrink the pie, with the few grabbing a larger slice at the expense of the many (+ / -).

• Focused on the short-term and the self, the subverted System degraded the US/West for decades, while strengthening adversaries and enriching the co-opted ‘elite.’ The unaffordability crisis for younger generations and the National Security vulnerabilities in the US/West are downstream outputs of this subverted System. This piece covers it in depth.

Over the last ~1 year, the US has woken up and begun to wake up the World.

• The old System that was infiltrated and subverted is irredeemable — it is a dead host, fully controlled and consumed by the collective parasite. That old System is ending — Tariffs signaled its coming end, the chokepoint blockades are cutting off the oxygen.

• Though it may not look like it on the surface — given the manipulated media and the intentionally externally chaotic strategy — the US has been building a parallel New System together with allies over the last year. Built upon abundance and mutual burden sharing, the New System is once again focused on growing the collective pie (+ / +).

Today, every thing is changing. Things ‘rhyme’ because every thing is a wave.

That is why every thing that was once old, is new again.

The original old System — originally built on Growth and abundance — is the template for the New.

Study the past, to understand the present, and shape the future.

This just-published two-part piece below is an important read for anyone wanting to understand what is going on and why. To prepare for, capitalize on, and shape what is coming next…

• The Multi-Decade Quiet War & The System Phase Transition

  • Part I - From the Exploitation of the old System to the Building of the New System - delving into how the old System was quietly subverted by adversaries

  • Part II - Deep-Dive into the Trump Admin’s Re-Building of the US’ Pillars of Power & The old to New System Phase Transition - connecting the dots on the Trump Admin’s Strategy to end the old and the architect the New System

These two pieces connect the dots across a lot of the content published over the last year — from the core coverage of the ongoing Cold War 2.0 between the US & China, to the sub-spheres of the Arctic, Space and the deeply interrelated Technology (AI) Race to control the World Order.

And they pair seamlessly with the Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny series — check out the full Content User Guide to understand the interconnections.

Read the series, share your thoughts, engage in con-structive discourse.

While you do not have to agree, it is important to engage.

Active intentional participation shapes the future.

Awareness is step one.

Decisions today will matter for decades.

The New System and its foundational Policies are an ‘uncarved block’ — for us to now collectively shape.

En-semble the ‘best’ ideas of the East + West.

Time to Build.

If you enjoy the content, subscribe.

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If it is useful, share.

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Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

Deep-dives: Substack

Short notes: Substack notes

Videos & Podcasts: YouTube

Tweets: X

Website: AquaVis

Disclosures

This commentary has been prepared by AquaVis Advisors LLC (“AquaVis”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does it constitute investment advice or a recommendation to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, AquaVis makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

Any opinions or estimates expressed reflect personal views as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider this material as only one input in their decision-making process and should obtain independent financial, legal, and tax advice before making any investment decisions.

Investing in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and may be affected by changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, credit conditions, and the price or volatility of underlying assets. Certain investments may be speculative and are not suitable for all investors.

AquaVis may, from time to time, have long or short positions in securities or other financial instruments mentioned and may transact in such instruments without further notice.

Now we move on to connecting dots across recent strategic actions as the Quiet War grows louder, and the old to New System phase transition accelerates.

To be clear upfront. This analysis does not mean that the Trump Admin is doing everything right. Nor is it an endorsement of every Policy and/or action.

It is simply a recognition that the Admin is:

• Aware that the old System weakened the US and strengthened adversaries

• Ending the old System

• Re-building a New System

• Upsetting a lot of people who benefitted from the old System

Make sure to curate your sources. A lot of the ‘mainstream’ media has ties to the old System — and is thus incentivized to preserve it to maintain control.

To understand how all of this ties together — from the birth of the old System post-WWII and the rise of US hegemony, to the degradation of the old System and the emergence of the New — check out this simple User Guide. It covers all of the foundational content — meant to get anyone and everyone up to speed on the System, the ‘water everyone is swimming in,’ from a first principles perspective.

Moving on to more recent signposts and the building of the New System — all revolving around the Pillars of Power.

Starting with everyone’s favorite…

TECHNOLOGY

The Technology (AI) Race is The Race to establish Power and Control the Global World Order.

I’ve held this view for a long time.

Publicly since publishing:

And long before that privately — a conviction built through the process of building the Pillars of Power framework.

I’ve written about this extensively, and everyday it’s proven stronger. The thesis rests on thousands of years of History — we are simply in another wave. And the ‘winner’ of that wave typically controls the Global World Order. The System.

While the definition of Technology may remain the ‘same,’ what comprises it changes over time — and thus innovation leadership requires continual investment.

As noted, this Technological Revolution revolves around AI. Adversaries are and have been quite aware of this for some time.

The US & the Trump Agenda - 6 Months In covers the foundational Policies focused on Technology — from the AI Action Plan, to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, to Critical Product Tariffs and more — which primarily incentivize AI Infrastructure — the base (Compute) layer; what I call Phase 1 of the Technology Revolution. If you have not read that piece, I’d recommend it — this piece builds upon that one.

We are beginning to see the 2025 Policy foundation begin to manifest into the 2026 physical reality.

Capital expenditures focused on AI Infrastructure are accelerating, partially as a result of these Policies — covered in detail.

And the Trump Admin clearly remains focused on the relative progress here:

‘U.S. global compute share has risen from the 30% range into the 50% range and could reach 70% to 80% within a few years’ — Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary

As the build out and control over this layer remains a National Security imperative.

The ‘trains’ (Phase 2) are useless without the ‘tracks’ (Phase 1).

‘If you build it, he will come’ is the current approach to the Phase 1 Compute layer plan, and so far it is playing out — with demand continuing to outstrip supply.

The US is uniquely positioned relative to China and the rest of the world as the US owns the entire AI stack.

Access to that US AI Stack is a key ‘carrot’ to entice countries into the New System:

Tariffs removed the option of ‘keeping’ the old System. The US/Middle East deals laid the template for the New System. And closing the Strait of Hormuz is the forcing function to shift:

Most countries are choosing to join the New System…

With more to come. #SovereignAI.

There are multiple reasons why Technology Revolutions tend to enable shifts in the Global Power structure. Leadership in these Revolutions — notably in the end-to-end stack — provide you with both leverage and often asymmetric Power.

Laid all of this out over the last year — highlighting the importance of context and sequencing.

Can this overall AI layer be used in negative ways (i.e., AI Surveillance State)? Absolutely. This is likely my biggest concern — particularly in the ‘wrong’ hands. Deep-dive for another time, but broader immediate points are:

• It is absolutely a race — if adversaries win, you will be beholden to their AI

• It can be used for good — deterrence and productivity

And thus, the underlying ‘existential’ framing — from corporates to sovereigns — is and will continue to drive this Technological Revolution forward.

You can see how all of these pieces interconnect — from the (AI) Technology Revolution to re-shoring Critical Product Production to the New System and beyond. Again, you do not have to like it — but I would recommend recognizing it. Start here to connect the dots.

While the Compute build-out continues, it is ‘simply’ the base layer. You do not (or at least should not) just build out infrastructure… to build out infrastructure (#Chinahousing).

Phase 1 is a pre-requisite to the aptly named Phase 2 — sequencing matters.

Applications — or what I call Phase 2 of the Technology (AI) Revolution — are coming next.

Starting with The Genesis Mission. It’s purpose: ‘unleash a new age of AI‑accelerated innovation and discovery that can solve the most challenging problems of this century.’

Almost no one talks about this Mission — aside from — and yet it is a key application on top of the aforementioned Compute layer. Pairing vast, once proprietary ‘siloed’ scientific Data from all of the US National Laboratories with the power of leading-edge AI Algorithms could unlock serious break-throughs — notably in the realm of Energy (e.g., fusion and fission).

A national effort to accelerate the application of AI for transformative scientific discovery focused on pressing national challenges

Likened to the Manhattan Project:

In this pivotal moment, the challenges we face require a historic national effort, comparable in urgency and ambition to the Manhattan Project that was instrumental to our victory in World War II

The un-leashing of this pent-up energy in the Science sphere — an area where progress has been intentionally stifled — has the potential to be transformational.

Expect more out of the Genesis Mission in the coming months and years.

In the meantime, in the AI ‘base’ model race, Anthropic has begun pulling ahead of OpenAI:

Prior to the release of Anthropic’s Mythos base model — which is an output of the Policies and related accelerated Phase 1 build over the last year.

So far, scaling laws continue to hold: more Compute = better model (generally). Paired with new chips and new techniques, Mythos is ‘rumored’ to be quite powerful. So powerful it’s public launch was delayed, while it was deployed by a select few entities to patch ‘critical’ cybersecurity and software vulnerabilities.

Marketing campaign or not, this certainly appears to be a step-function change in the Technology Race.

Meanwhile, China has taken a completely different approach to AI. Rather than spending heavily on Phase 1 (Infrastructure), they have chosen to take a ‘capex-light’ approach — actively distilling (essentially ‘copying’) US base models and creating open-source models that are ‘good enough,’ just behind the US base models.

But the issue is — they do not have the underlying ‘weights’ of the models. At the frontier, they train on the outputs. Simplistically, the distilled models are like a kid (Bob) who copies another kid’s (Bill) answers on a test. Bill gets an A, Bob gets a B. The issue is, Bob doesn’t actually know anything; he just copied Bill.

And this strategy is beginning to backfire as the US cracks down on distillation:

To be clear, China is not doing this with all models. China is able to innovate — I do not take the hubristic view that they are ‘dumb.’ They’ve built up some serious domestic competitors.

But it is also not easy to catch up with an adaptive Technology ecosystem that is constantly evolving and building upon foundational knowledge — exemplified by how difficult it is to scale and ‘shrink nodes’ to the leading edge in Semiconductors. Each step builds upon the last, and each step gets non-linearly more difficult.

This is part of the reason why the unleashing of the pent-up energy within Technology in the US is so powerful — opening up the natural flow opens up seriously expansive paths (N.B., there will be side effects to the coming disruption). Adversaries, incumbents, and the ‘aligned’ co-opted elite stifled innovation in the US for decades for a reason: None wanted change, none wanted progress in the US. All were profiting off of the status quo, and the ‘stifling’ enabled adversaries own companies to catch-up — exemplified by the auto industry.

And another part of the reason why re-shoring Critical Product Production is so critical. Semiconductors are the foundation of the current Technology Revolution. And today, most leading edge are manufactured in Taiwan.

Announcements like Terafab exemplify the confluence of Policy + Industrial Strategy + Tariffs.

And no, rubber duck manufacturing still will not be coming back to the US.

Just as the US is actively seeking to reduce it’s Critical Production Production dependence upon China, China is actively attempting to reduce dependence upon Nvidia and the US AI Tech Stack.

But Nvidia continues to expand it’s lead relative to Huawei, which further compounds to downstream models. And the US/West has a clear lead on the Semiconductor Capital Equipment and High-Bandwidth Memory front.

Which — paired with the above crackdowns and ‘smuggling’ loophole closures — has translated to the US expanding it’s lead in The Race over the last 6+ months.

But this Race is not relegated to Earth.

This deep-dive on Space is increasingly relevant.

Space is a critical New Frontier with massive opportunity for growth ( been ahead of the curve here). And massive implications for National Security.

When you take a step back, you see that everything is interconnected. The focus on Space is heating up; in the last month alone:

• Artemis II Lunar Mission - NASA’s 1st crewed lunar flyby in 50 years

• SpaceX IPO announced - “Punchline: SpaceX enables the underlying Technological feasibility of the Golden Dome; no SpaceX, no Golden Dome.”

• Golden Dome coming back into the headlines around IPO (stay tuned)

The Race to the Moon is here. Space Race 2.0 is a sub-component of Cold War 2.0.

SpaceX — the current clear leader in the Space space and the US/Western representation in the Race — just shifted it’s near-term focus towards the Moon, away from Mars.

And SpaceX has dramatically accelerated it’s launches over the last few years.

The US may have an asymmetric advantage in the Space sphere right now. And we may see that on display in places like Kharg.

For context, similar to Tariffs, Trump has been ‘aware’ of Kharg Island since the 1980s.

Overall, this all ties into The Race for asymmetric Technology. And all of this Technology is deeply interconnected.

From the Genesis Mission (Data/Application) and Mythos (Model/Algorithm), to Terafab (Semiconductors/Compute) and the SpaceX-enabled Golden Dome (Application).

The ‘Strategic Rivalry’ between the US & China is front-and-center. Re-frame everything you see through this lens.

Further, these Technologies are no longer just in the un-applied ‘research’ phase.

There have been clear applications of the Technology on the ‘battlefield.’ Everything from the ‘stealth’ capture of Maduro in Venezuela, to the use of Ghost Murmur in Iran.

These are all shows of strength. Posturing and attempted deterrence. Testing out each side to see if there actually is asymmetry.

And asymmetry comes in different forms. While typically used in the gun vs. knife approach — non-linearly more powerful (though again, pending Context). It can also be applied on the cost asymmetry front as a war-of-attrition tactic — like using cheap drones to dis-able expensive aircraft carriers.

Which is why viewing everything through the interdependent Pillars of Power lens helps ‘normalize’ and compare on a like-for-like basis.

This interview around Military Technology covers a lot of these points — from asymmetry to Quality vs. Quantity to how AI & autonomous systems fit in.

What is quite clear is that adversaries are not sitting still. They are smartly focused on foundational inputs — from rare earth processing control to undersea cable severing.

And they have been ramping up Productive Capacity for decades, now leading on the ‘Quantity’ side of the ledger — i.e., the scale of Production.

Knowing that asymmetric Technology without the ability to actually Produce it, is largely empty.

Just as China is providing Technology and related resources in Ukraine, they are doing the same in Iran.

While some may just be ‘recognizing’ it…

It’s been happening the whole time — from cutting critical communication cables to providing key Technologies.

And it’s important to note that now they are more openly highlighting it.

As the strategic race to control chokepoints — from ‘legacy’ ones like Hormuz and the Ocean, to ‘novel’ ones like Space and the Arctic — ramps up.

All using Technology to attempt to control and deter.

Unleashing pent-up energy that has been building under the surface for decades — innovation stifled by predecessors and incumbents seeking to maintain power and control — will absolutely be disruptive.

But you can re-frame disruption as opportunity — particularly for the young and adaptable.

And from an application perspective — as highlighted by the initial Pillars of Power Portfolio piece (more to come; follow Notes for updates) — this foundational framework ‘doubles’ as a naturally balanced portfolio. The understanding that Technology is foundational to the hegemon(s) agendas — from National Security to Productivity — provides incremental confidence on where to focus.

The Pillars of Power framework helps direct your attention (flowing energy) and your Money (stored energy).