As the content library and community have grown, I wanted to streamline the structure — making it easier to enter, follow, and revisit.

Enter: The AquaVis Map.

Like all things AquaVis, it is modeled after Nature. And like all AquaVis products, it takes shape from the river — flowing water.

There are now five main sections:

Foundations — The Source
Essential Guides. Core Frameworks. Guiding Principles.
Start here to understand the AquaVis worldview and the mental models used to map the System and its flows.

Insights — Surface Flow
One Visual. One Signal. One Implication.
Quick insights that reveal the hidden currents beneath the surface.

Newsletters — Main Current
Applied Analysis. Deeper Context. Connected Systems.
Newsletters that trace the flows shaping the System through the Pillars of Power.

Whitepapers — Deep Channel
Foundational Frameworks. Enduring Research. Nature Analogs.
Evergreen whitepapers that map the System through the AquaVis nature-inspired lens.

Companions — The Eddy
Visual Maps. Podcast Episodes. Video Walkthroughs.
Companion multimedia materials that revisit, extend, and explore the core written content.

Two sections are new: Foundations and Insights.

Foundations is the starting point — the place to understand the AquaVis worldview, guiding principles, and core frameworks.

Insights is the new distilled format — one visual, one signal, one implication. Each Insight connects to a deeper Newsletter or Whitepaper, creating a faster way to engage with the core research.

The goal is simple: make it easier to follow the flow.

AquaVis moves like a river — with direction, depth, and rhythm. Some sections move quickly. Others run deeper.

Start at The Source.

Observe the Surface Flow.

Follow the Main Current.

Delve into the Deep Channel.

Circle back through The Eddy.

Each section offers a different way to enter the flow — from surface signals to enduring frameworks.

Flowing water is flowing energy made visible.

AquaVis is here to map it.

If you enjoy the content, subscribe.

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Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

Deep-dives: Substack

Short notes: Substack notes

Videos & Podcasts: YouTube

Tweets: X

Website: AquaVis

Disclosures

This commentary has been prepared by AquaVis Advisors LLC (“AquaVis”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does it constitute investment advice or a recommendation to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, AquaVis makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

Any opinions or estimates expressed reflect personal views as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider this material as only one input in their decision-making process and should obtain independent financial, legal, and tax advice before making any investment decisions.

Investing in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and may be affected by changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, credit conditions, and the price or volatility of underlying assets. Certain investments may be speculative and are not suitable for all investors.

AquaVis may, from time to time, have long or short positions in securities or other financial instruments mentioned and may transact in such instruments without further notice.

And for the last 15+ months, I mapped a step-by-step sequence toward a Peaceful Re-Balancing between the US & China — documenting the signposts along the way.

Highlighting how the old System was set to end — and needed to, as it has become unsustainably imbalanced.

With the parallel the opportunity to build a New System in it’s place — shifting back toward a growth mindset, away from scarcity.

Now more are beginning to see the currents under the surface starting to more visibly manifest — making this whole process ‘clear’ to more people.

The ‘surface’ narrative noise and related panic around:

• Tariffs

• Allies Abandoning the US

• US/Iran Conflict

• Strait Closure

The list goes on. The symmetry? The experts and all the narratives were wrong.

In June/July expect more downstream ‘outputs’ likely become visible, notably:

• oil to drop

• rates to drop

• peace to spread

• equities to surge

• ‘taboo’ disclosure to rise (UAPs, aliens, government corruption, et al.)

Forecasted this all over a year ago with a ‘crescendo’ date of July 4, 2026.

So far, tracking according to plan — with a full content archive to support it.

This all sounded ‘crazy’ a year ago — largely ignored and/or attacked.

Pattern recognition + Imagination can be quite powerful.

‘Lateral’ thinking sounds ‘crazy’ in a world that has rewarded and become used to linear thinking for decades.

The piece below helps connect many of the dots across the AquaVis content archive — making the underlying intentional plan over the last 15+ months much more apparent. While also providing additional insight into the AquaVis dot-connecting process.

The piece below was built, in particular, for those who are new to the AquaVis Community.

Check it out:

And the Pillars of Power Framework that helped forecast and construct all of that content also doubles as an application layer to help harness your money — The Pillars of Power Portfolio.

Using this foundational construct to help recognize key pivot points — all of the big ones laid out neatly over the last year in this piece, with signals ahead as well:

An intuitive and real-life-applicable framework to help: Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

If you enjoy the content, subscribe.

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Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

Deep-dives: Substack

Short notes: Substack notes

Videos & Podcasts: YouTube

Tweets: X

Website: AquaVis

Disclosures

This commentary has been prepared by AquaVis Advisors LLC (“AquaVis”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does it constitute investment advice or a recommendation to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, AquaVis makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

Any opinions or estimates expressed reflect personal views as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider this material as only one input in their decision-making process and should obtain independent financial, legal, and tax advice before making any investment decisions.

Investing in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and may be affected by changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, credit conditions, and the price or volatility of underlying assets. Certain investments may be speculative and are not suitable for all investors.

AquaVis may, from time to time, have long or short positions in securities or other financial instruments mentioned and may transact in such instruments without further notice.

Building off of the foundational intro piece from the beginning of April: The Pillars of Power Portfolio. These updates will become more regular — typically ~1x/month, or ad hoc as opportunities arise.

In the meantime, I’ve published several update Notes since early April (some re-published below), but I realize many are not necessarily following those (easiest in the app, if you wanted to).

I’ve been working on wrapping up the foundational material, along with making the content more accessible — stay tuned.

Given how quickly everything is changing, Notes were an easier way to quickly offer thoughts in parallel to the above.

This ‘compressed change’ is typical of phase transitions within markets. But right now we’re also undergoing a phase transition within the foundational System itself — The End of the old & The Beginning of the New delves into it.

So things are even ‘crazier.’

Simply, volatility — which is essentially the speed and magnitude of change — rises during phase transitions. It’s intuitive that volatility would rise as you move from an era of order (with linear change) to a time of dis-order (with non-linear change), which will eventually move back toward a period of order (with new rules and a new system).

All of this is characteristic of a ‘4th Turning,’ which is really just a Confluence of multiple waves.

Understanding where you are in the multiple waves is key to understanding and harnessing the ‘flow.’

Which is the major focus of the foundational content and framework.

To prepare.

So you can intentionally respond — not mindlessly react.

And even better, you can thoughtfully participate — imagining and shaping the future.

Re-frame disruption as opportunity.

My ‘edge’ lies in the realm of pattern recognition paired with imagination.

While many focus on the superficial ‘noise’ perpetuated by the fear-driven-scarcity-minded-media.

The real opportunities are emerging under the surface.

As pendulums swing in the old-to-New System phase transition.

While mainstream media trips over themselves to keep you distracted, observe what is actually happening.

The ‘experts’ got Tariffs wrong. They got US/Iran wrong. They got US/China wrong.

Time to reassess based on actual track records. Linear media and ‘experts’ are lost in this non-linear transition to a New System.

Start within. Curate, curate curate.

On to the markets and the PoP portfolio framing…

KEY PIVOT POINTS

As noted, I’ve highlighted a few key re-balancing signals — primarily via notes (which would be way better if they were easily searchable) and X.

The number of pivot points over the last year or so is ‘unusual’ in the sense that there are more than typical.

But this is actually typical for a market and underlying System phase transition. Volatility is picking up, right on schedule.

reminds us what volatility can look like during System phase transitions.

This volatility creates opportunities if you are prepared with a framework and a process. But it can ‘chop you up’ if you are un-aware of the System, using old linear models, and/or chasing headlines without a process.

Delving into some the key Pillars re-balancing pivot points over the last ~year.

From the local bottom in early April 2025 focused on Technology and Money (gold).

To the re-balance toward Energy, out of Technology in early November 2025.

With positive progress along the way.

Before reaching an extreme and triggering another re-balance at the end of March.

Technology (XLK) was down ~15% over that November through March period:

While Energy (XLE) was up over 45%:

A 60%+ point spread over 4 months, with a lot more opportunity under-the-surface (down-the-funnel). Ultimately with the Energy outperformance reaching an extreme — triggering a re-balance out of Energy, toward Technology in late March.

With several signals feeding into the downstream process along the way.

From ‘Big Money’ rotating indications:

To oil-local-topping signals — from media headlines to ensure exit liquidity:

To record extremes in several indicators (h/t ):

To magazine covers that are (intentionally) contra-indicators:

If you know where to focus your attention — the 3 Pillars of Power — it becomes much easier to connect the dots and recognize the extremes. Not day-trading, just re-balancing the PoP portfolio at those extremes.

That is the Pillars of Power portfolio application layer in action.

Which becomes even more potent when it aligns with your intuition — using the Pillars framework to order your mind and better understand the world.

As noted, after the extreme Energy outperformance, the PoP portfolio re-focused on Technology at the end of March, away from Energy.

Which has worked — Technology (XLK) up over 40% in less than two months

While Energy is down a little over 5%.

Particularly if you decided to venture down the funnel:

Notably in areas at the bottom-of-the-funnel of the Pillar in focus (OW) — Technology in this case.

ONTO up ~60% from late March.

And ideally in areas where the hegemon(s) are directly focused.

INTC up over 200% since late March.

And now many of these moves have reached extremes in record time — removing the embedded asymmetry.

With a Technology reduction re-balance signal on May 15th.

So November through March, Energy outperformed Technology by ~60%. And then April through mid May, Technology outperformed Energy by ~50%. All at the index level — with more extremes (and opportunity) beneath the surface.

Simply re-balancing at those extremes has been quite fruitful.

Re-balancing signals ahead will be what they are. My view is this Technology ‘trim’ — which coincided with a lot of events (Trump/Xi, Cerebras IPO, et al.) is likely a pullback ahead of a coming blow-off top.

While the extreme signals are beginning to pile up (discussed below), the Policy support is still in place, for now.

With all of this building toward a July 4th crescendo, in my view — upcoming Mar-a-Lago Accord will delve further.

In the meantime, many are confused by how the market could be at all-time highs with so much ‘chaos.’ Most of the confusion stems from letting the external dictate where you focus your attention — the media purposefully over-complicates things and creates intentional noise to distract.

This is why it is so important to have a framework and a process, notably at once-in-a-generation times like these. It does not mean you will always be correct, but it does help keep you focused on what matters.

The reality today is:

• New liquidity is being pumped into the System via RMP

• Policy (notably OBBBA) is supportive for 2026 spending

• You want to focus on who is receiving these flows, while simultaneously monitoring the stability of the System

• The Pillars of Power keeps you focused on what matters, while AquaVis overall stays focused on the flows and the underlying System

‘Flows don’t lie.’

Follow the flow - AquaVis.

This is what AquaVis is built on. Whether it’s the flows of Money (energy) through the System and stock market, or the flows of Energy around the World, or the flows of energy in Society.

Mapping the flows helps connect dots and make sense of things. And it’s much easier with a framework to help you understand the underlying incentives, what is important, and where to focus your attention…

FOCUS & LOOKING AHEAD

As noted, the extreme signals are beginning to pile up:

• Cerebras IPO — with changed rules to accelerate insider selling and index inclusion

• SpaceX accelerated it’s IPO to mid-June — with changed rules to accelerate insider selling and index inclusion

The old System is ending, and those ‘in the know’ are pillaging it on the way out.

They are literally changing the rules of the old System to help facilitate the exit liquidity process:

• streamlining IPO stock selling (no longer 6 month lockup)

• streamlining IPO index inclusion (removing requirements; expediting)

• opening PE/PC to 401Ks (opportunity to dump bad assets in retirement accounts)

It is quite obvious.

And reminder — the financial industry is not there to help you. You are the product they monetize.

Media, Markets, & Mindset lays this all out, as does the ‘under-read’ Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny - Society.

Do not be the exit liquidity for the Private Equity or Private Credit industries.

Or the over-valued IPOs they are racing to get to market with absolutely absurd rule-changes to facilitate the ‘dumping.’

Time and again, it’s become clear the Media is there to help facilitate this charade — they manipulate to help Big Money take your Money in the Markets, using Technology to do it more efficiently (see how Pillars enables Power at all levels).

It is literally a coordinated ‘racket’ to:

• Hijack your Attention

• Manipulate your Mind

• Take your Money

• Control your Future

The opposite of what AquaVis seeks to do:

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

To better understand how this ‘racket’ works, check out this deep-dive — Stock Market Ownership & Control — connecting the dots on who actually controls the stock markets and corporate board rooms.

And once you understand it, then you can better choose to direct your energy on things you do control — to play your game, not theirs.

Which ties nicely into the focus of the AquaVis process.

As noted in the foundational piece, I focus my time/energy on the big areas. Where all of the cycles are converging, where all of the rivers are flowing together: Confluence.

This helps me focus on the big ‘themes’ that matter and will be persistent for years — using the Pillars of Power as a filter.

And this helps me ignore the things that do not matter.

I do not care about one-off quarterly earnings. Or what some talking head at the Fed says on a Tuesday. It’s not right or wrong, it’s just the game you choose to play.

Over the last year, an example of a big item at the Confluence of AI, Semicap Equipment, and Reshoring: Advanced Packaging — the fastest growing sub-segment within a broadly growing market and a current bottleneck.

That filter then naturally flows toward finding the best, asymmetric expression of it: ONTO as an example in this case (up almost 3x over the last year, ~2x YTD).

This is just one example to help provide insight into the process — which is highly scalable and repeatable. Everything in the defined universe runs through these filters. And a few names within each Pillar make it to the bottom of the funnel.

To the point on the ‘defined universe,’ it is just as important to know what to avoid.

Anything that falls outside of the Pillars of Power is removed.

For example, I do not invest in the Consumer Discretionary realm — sorry rubber ducks. From hotels, to cruise ships, to Gucci loafers — not a focus, for a multitude of reasons. They do not fit within the Pillars — hegemons do not care and will not care — and the Consumption pendulum has shifted too far in the West (I’m focused on Production).

You can absolutely make money doing this. But I choose to define and play my own game, not someone else’s.

Additionally, I do not invest in adversaries — e.g., China, Russia, Iran, North Korea for now. If they eventually choose to join the New System, burden-share, and play by the rules, I will absolutely reassess.

Otherwise, an easy elimination. I choose not to enable the adversaries who set out to destroy you. Unlike the co-opted elites over the last 30 years — who optimized for their own riches and self-righteousness at the expense of everyone in the US/West.

I will invest in Allies who join the New System — notably Latin America, where I see a huge opportunity over the next decade. But right now, the US is the current focus based upon the signals.

And based upon on the process, I am staying away from Japan, and basically all of Europe — I believe Germany, UK et al. have topped, at least locally.

Where you invest your Money is an important vote. You help shape the future when you intentionally choose.

I’ll do a deeper dive on these foundational investing principles that are core to the process.

This piece was another update to give you a glimpse into the workings of the process.

Meanwhile, the simple equal-weighted version of the Pillars of Power Portfolio — XLK, XLE, GLD — is doing quite well YTD relative to the market.

If all you did was buy an equal proportion of XLK, XLE, and GLD on January 2nd — you’d be up ~21%, almost 3x the market, with much better metrics.

Not bad for simple.

Remember the Pillars are the structure — you choose how to use it and fill it out.

If you enjoy the content, subscribe.

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Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

Deep-dives: Substack

Short notes: Substack notes

Videos & Podcasts: YouTube

Tweets: X

Website: AquaVis

Disclosures

This commentary has been prepared by AquaVis Advisors LLC (“AquaVis”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does it constitute investment advice or a recommendation to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, AquaVis makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

Any opinions or estimates expressed reflect personal views as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider this material as only one input in their decision-making process and should obtain independent financial, legal, and tax advice before making any investment decisions.

Investing in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and may be affected by changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, credit conditions, and the price or volatility of underlying assets. Certain investments may be speculative and are not suitable for all investors.

AquaVis may, from time to time, have long or short positions in securities or other financial instruments mentioned and may transact in such instruments without further notice.

• Tariffs.

• Greenland.

• Panama.

• The Middle East.

• Rare Earths.

• Stablecoins.

• Space.

• China.

These were not randomly separate.

They were intentionally sequenced.

And this piece systematically connects all of the dots.

Displaying how the just-concluded Trump/Xi summit and subsequent Peaceful Re-Balancing initiation were forecastable (and in fact, were forecasted… a year ago).

Revealing the deeply interconnected currents ‘under the surface’ that most missed.

All pieced together as part of a strategy to end the scarcity-subverted old System that systematically weakened the US/West and perpetuated imbalances — both across countries and within. And build a New System — focused on growth and re-balancing.

Natural systems naturally seek balance: Water always finds its level.

But when you dam it up for decades — cap the flows, redirect the currents, let a few control the reservoir — pressure builds. And when the dam breaks, everything moves at once.

That’s where we are. The System phase transition.

But how did we get here?

This brief piece connects the foundational deep-dive content published over the last year+.

Providing both the Context and Sequencing to better understand what is going on today.

Each current flows into the next. Read it as one long arc, not a collection of isolated events.

The Trump/Xi meeting — forecasted over a year ago — that just concluded is the culmination of 15 months of deeply interconnected events.

Marking both the end of the old System. And the beginning of the New.

And thus, the AquaVis mantra, every thing is a wave.

Let’s connect the dots across the ‘currents,’ starting from the beginning…

Current I: The Unsustainably Imbalanced System

It didn’t happen overnight.

The Post-WWII System was built with a purpose: rebuild a war-torn world. The US dropped its tariffs, shipped off its Production, and provided the Security umbrella for global trade. It worked — almost too well.

By the 1990s, the US was at its Golden Age Peak — leading across all three Pillars of Power: Technology, Energy, and Money. The System had achieved its intent: the world was rebuilt, trade was flowing, prosperity was expanding. Things were largely in balance.

Then the pendulum kept swinging. Past equilibrium. Past balance. Into fragility.

The US systematically offshored its Productive Capacity — from manufacturing to Critical Products — while Consumption ballooned, debt compounded, and the few captured most of the gains. A few ‘fractals’:

• US debt grew faster than GDP — with interest expenses now exceeding Defense spend (Ferguson’s Law: when that happens, you risk no longer being a great Power)

• The top 10% control 60%+ of assets while the bottom 50% control just over 5%

• China’s share of global manufacturing grew from ~3% in 1990 to ~44% by 2022

The pendulums swung to extremes: Consumption over Production. Capital over Labor. Short-term siphoning over Long-term building.

Left alone, this System would have collapsed under its own weight within the decade. Not a forecast — an inevitability. Natural Systems always seek balance.

“The System as it is structured today is not sustainable. Period. It would collapse under its own weight within the decade.”

— Tariffs (Part I)

Relevant Deep-Dive Content:

• 📄 The System Series: Tariffs (Part I) — The Unbalanced System & The Tariff Shock

• 📄 The System Series: Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny (Part I) — The Rise of US Hegemony & The Creation and Expansion of the Post WWII System

• 📄 PoP: The Multi-Decade Quiet War & The System Phase Transition (Part I) — From the Exploitation of the old System to the Building of the New System

Current II: The Quiet War — How the old System Was Exploited

While the US slept, adversaries studied.

After the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis, China concluded they could not defeat the US in its own game. So they ‘changed’ the game — redirecting the System flows to their benefit.

The approach was laid out explicitly in the 1999 PLA book Unrestricted Warfare: defeat a technologically superior opponent not through military force, but by systematically weakening it from within.

And they executed against it — quietly and deliberately — for decades:

• Production warfare — shifting IP, Productive Capacity, and Labor out of the US and into China

• Media warfare — subverting open platforms to proliferate false narratives and drive internal polarization

• Drug warfare — the fentanyl crisis, dis-abling the Productive Labor Force

• Resource warfare — controlling rare earth mineral processing, creating Critical Product Chokepoints

• Cyber warfare — systematically exploiting digital vulnerabilities

• Proxy warfare — supplying Russia and Iran to spread the hegemon thin

In parallel, China stopped buying US Treasuries (~2013), launched the Belt & Road Initiative, and manifested Made in China 2025 — essentially taking US Dollars (bits) and converting them into Physical Power (atoms). The opposite of what the US was doing.

The System designed to re-build the world was re-directed to weaken its architect.

The imbalances we see today are a downstream result of the subversion of the System by adversaries and the co-opted elite decades ago.

Most have been asleep. Intentionally kept that way.

“Another element of the genius behind the exploitation strategy was how ‘quiet’ it was and seemingly still is. So quiet, many are still asleep. Intentionally quiet to suppress the natural response.”

— The Multi-Decade Quiet War (Part I)

Relevant Deep-Dive Content:

• 📄 PoP: The Multi-Decade Quiet War & The System Phase Transition (Part I) — From the Exploitation of the old System to the Building of the New System

• 📄 PoP: China & The Xi Agenda — A Look at China under President Xi

• 📄 Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny (Part II) — The Degradation of US Hegemony & The Beginning of the End of the Post WWII System

Current III: Tariffs — The Wake Up Call

Most are un-aware of the ‘water’ they are swimming in.

Aware of the symptoms — wealth inequality, generational demographic divides, the unaffordability of housing, the absurdity of stock market valuations et al. — but not the root causes — the System itself and the foundational Policies.

Thus it’s difficult to change an underlying System most don’t even appreciate exists.

Particularly when the few — co-opted ‘leaders’ at the top — profit so immensely from it’s existence — intentionally keeping the many ‘asleep.’

Enter Tariffs.

Tariffs were never about tariffs. They were a multi-pronged tool — a catalyst injected into a fragile, unsustainably imbalanced System to force it to recalibrate from the foundation.

The “shock and awe” delivery was intentional. Small moves get ignored. Extreme moves force everyone to the table — instantly.

The absurdity of the initial figures got attention. The Reciprocal Tariffs created Perspective: wait, the rest of the world has been tariffing the US this whole time?

The Goals were never just revenue; that’s a temporary byproduct. They were layered:

1. Wake Up Call — the System is unsustainably imbalanced; we’re serious, let’s chat

2. Mirror — highlight the current Un-Fair and Un-Free Trade

3. Free Trade — the path to truly free trade is first paved with reciprocal fairness

4. Reshoring — Critical Product supply chains (semiconductors, pharma, rare earths) must come home; resilience over efficiency

5. Peaceful Re-Balancing — US reduces over-Consumption, China reduces over-Production

6. Revenue — a toll to access the New System and its Security umbrella — Tariffs, Tolls, & Tribute

Tariffs burned the boats. The only way is through.

“Once you are truly aware of the System, you cannot ‘unsee’ it. Doing nothing is a choice not to change the current System. Tariffs take that status quo — don’t wake me up — option off the table.”

— Tariffs (Part I)

Relevant Deep-Dive Content:

• 📄 The System Series: Tariffs (Part I) — The Unbalanced System & The Tariff Shock

• 📄 The System Series: Tariffs (Part II) — Tariffs & The Re-Balancing of the Global System

Current IV: Rebuilding the Pillars — Internal Flows Re-Directed

Simply ‘blowing up’ the old System without any New System to transition to would be counter-productive.

Context and sequencing matter, a lot.

While Tariffs were the external catalyst initiating the conversations around the ending of the old System and the architecting of the New, the Trump Admin was also systematically rebuilding internally from the foundation — across all three Pillars of Power:

Technology: Leadership in AI is The Race to control the Global World Order.

• The AI Action Plan, DOGE-mapping systems, removal of prohibitive regulations, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, et al. — all designed to unleash the private sector and accelerate the US AI Technology Stack.

Energy: Energy Dominance to power Technology and strengthen Money.

• Drill baby drill, Nuclear renaissance, Section 232 investigations across critical mineral areas, et al. to strengthen the Energy Pillar — required to power Technology.

Money: Re-fortify the Money Pillar and re-direct flows.

• The GENIUS Act (stablecoins), Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, America First Investment Policy, Sovereign Wealth Fund, and the re-direction of flows — away from financial (generally unproductive) assets, toward productive physical assets in Technology and Energy.

The internal flows were being re-directed. The foundation was being poured.

2025 set the foundation. 2026 is the expansion.

“Lay out a Vision and a set of Goals. Unleash a catalyst to drive Action and Change. Engage in constructive Dialogue. Create a mutually beneficial Plan to achieve the Vision.”

— US & The Trump Agenda — 6 Months In

Relevant Deep-Dive Content:

• 📄 PoP: US & The Trump Agenda — 6 Months In — A Deep-Dive into the Trump Admin’s First 6 Months

• 📄 PoP: The Multi-Decade Quiet War & The System Phase Transition (Part II) — Deep-Dive into the Trump Admin’s Re-Building of the US’ Pillars of Power & The old to New System Phase Transition

Current V: Focusing on the New Chokepoints — The Arctic & Space

While everyone was caught up in the tariff noise, the real moves were being made in Cold Places .

The Arctic and Space are not niche topics. They are the next generation of Chokepoints — and whoever controls them controls the future.

The Arctic sits at the nexus of all three Pillars:

• Technology: Critical hub for global communications, undersea cable infrastructure, and Satellite connectivity.

• Energy: ~90 billion barrels of recoverable oil, 1,670 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and vast critical mineral reserves beneath the ice.

• Money: New trade routes are emerging as ice melts — routes that bypass the current US-controlled sea lanes, opening the door to non-USD trade

Greenland is not a quirky real estate comment. It is the hub of the emerging Arctic sphere, a Golden Dome anchor, and a critical resource reserve. The Trump Administration’s focus here — called out over a year ago — is now fully visible.

Space is a new frontier and the ultimate higher ground:

• Technology: SpaceX controls nearly two-thirds of all active satellites, Starlink is the communications backbone that makes modern warfare possible, and the Golden Dome is not Sci-Fi — it is a direct application of the asymmetric Technology strategy, enabled by SpaceX.

• Energy: Space is the frontier for effectively infinite solar capture and clean power — from space-based solar projects, to Helium‑3 on the Moon for fusion, to energy‑intensive AI data centers and manufacturing moved off-planet.

• Money: Projects like the Golden Dome are funded with tens of billions from the One Big Beautiful Bill, while resources such as asteroid Psyche’s critical minerals (~10 quintillion dollars) and lunar Helium‑3 represent multi‑generational monetary upside for whoever controls and develops them.

The re-focusing of energy on these New Spheres goes hand-in-hand with strengthening the US’ Pillars of Power — ‘future-proofing’ them by making the investments and re-directing energy toward them now.

The US was not only rebuilding the present Pillars. It was positioning around the future chokepoints before the New System fully arrived.

Meanwhile, China is not sitting still — building BeiDou (GPS alternative), SpaceSail (Starlink alternative), and a Three-Body Computing Constellation of space-based AI data centers.

The multi-pronged Race is not relegated to Earth.

“The Battle for AI Supremacy — ‘Space Race 2.0’ within Cold War 2.0 — is composed of multiple building blocks across multiple spheres: Arctic, Space, Ocean.”

— PoP: The Arctic & Its Rising Importance

Relevant Deep-Dive Content:

• 📄 PoP: The Arctic & Its Rising Importance — An Exploration of the Arctic and its Role in the Evolving Global Order

• 📄 PoP: Space & The New Frontier — A Dive into the Importance of Space Security & the Exploration of Space Abundance

Current VI: The Middle East Deals — Template for the New System

This was the clearest signal most missed.

While the US was simultaneously:

• Re-building it’s Pillars of Power

• Re-shoring Critical Product Production

• Re-focusing energy on emerging New Spheres

In parallel they were Re-writing the System architecture with nations around the world — starting with the biggest surplus countries (notably historically ‘neutral’ ones).

In June 2025, the US signed landmark deals with the Middle East: Money and Energy in exchange for Technology. The Pillars of Power, in action.

These were not just a business deals. They set the blueprint for the New System. Directly highlighted at the time, and proven correct since:

• The Middle East has surplus Money (from Energy sales) and surplus Energy — but deficits in leading-edge Technology

• The US has surplus Technology (AI Tech Stack, Semiconductors, Starlink) — and needs cheap Money and ~Energy for reshoring and the AI buildout

• The combination is non-zero-sum: both sides are better off — built with a mindset of growth and abundance, like the original old System before it was subverted by scarcity

Additionally, this New System architecture directly flows into strengthening the US’ Pillars of Power — a natural self-reinforcing flywheel that just started spinning.

Further, the symbolism was enormous: the Middle East chose the US over China. Nvidia over Huawei. OpenAI over DeepSeek. Starlink over SpaceSail. Google over Alibaba. Once you make an architecture decision like this — the switching costs compound for decades.

The Capital flows changed too. Middle Eastern ‘petrodollar’ Money that previously flowed into US Treasuries, real estate, and stocks (financial, often unproductive assets — ‘bits’) is now being directed into Critical US Technology and Energy Infrastructure — Physical and Productive (atoms).

The Re-Balancing the System needed written into the ‘code’ itself.

Every nation has strengths and deficits. The New System is simply a framework for connecting and balancing them — with the Pillars of Power as the currency.

“These deals ultimately set a template for much of what is to come. Every Nation has its own strengths and weaknesses, surpluses and deficits, to address — and all revolve around the Pillars of Power.”

— The Middle East & The Emergence of a New System

Relevant Deep-Dive Content:

• 📄 PoP: The Middle East & The Emergence of a New System — A Deep Dive into the Importance of the Recent US/Middle East Deals & How They Signify the Emergence of a New System

• 📄 PoP: US & China — Important Perspective on Cold War 2.0

Current VII: Commandeering Chokepoints — Controlling the Flow

With the New System’s foundation in place, the external agenda accelerated.

This is where most analysts lose the thread — each action looks isolated. Panama Canal. Greenland. Venezuela. Iran. Cuba. But they’re not isolated. They are a sequence. And they all revolve around: Energy chokepoints.

Why Energy? Because it is China’s weakest Pillar. China is an energy importer — a dependency in a world where Energy = Industrial Power = AI Compute.

Work through the map:

• Panama Canal — critical chokepoint for trade (Money) and Energy

• Greenland — chokepoint + resources + Golden Dome Arctic hub

• Venezuela — oil reserves, critical minerals, hub for UUVs and Space, gold reserves

• Russia’s Shadow Fleet — Energy for China, Money for Russia; control it and you tighten China’s Energy supply

• Iran / Strait of Hormuz — embodies all three Pillars; the forcing function between old and new System

• Cuba — adversary hub in the Western Hemisphere, particularly for UUVs

• Indonesia / Strait of Malacca — ~80% of China’s Energy imports pass through here. Next in the sequence.

Control the chokepoints, control the flows. Control the flows, control the leverage.

China cannot respond overtly without waking up the West — which would trigger the exact industrial mobilization their entire strategy depended on preventing. The US recognized this and turned it against them.

The Hormuz blockade is the forcing function. It ends the old System’s flows. It exposes China’s dependency on the subverted old System. It makes every remaining country choose: join the New System, or get cut off from US security and AI access. The old System is dead and not an option.

Further, these events are perspective-inducing.

The sequence is deliberate:

1. Fix the foundation at home (Pillars rebuild)

2. Build the New System

3. Secure the Western Hemisphere

4. Control shadow fleets

5. Create ‘chaos’ at key chokepoints

6. Leverage chaos to strengthen US’ Energy & Money Pillars

7. Expose China’s dependency upon the subverted old System & its Energy flows

8. Establish peak leverage ahead of negotiations with China — Trump/Xi meeting

The Trump Admin re-directed the subverted flows of the old System to work for them instead of against the US — the media-led chaos kept everyone ‘lost,’ China’s energy and old System dependencies were exposed, the World was forced to recognize it depends upon US security. Flow Analysis of natural systems — the heart of AquaVis.

“End the old System, end those flows. Build the New System, re-direct those flows.”

— The Multi-Decade Quiet War (Part I)

Relevant Deep-Dive Content:

• 📄 PoP: The Multi-Decade Quiet War & The System Phase Transition (Part II) — Deep-Dive into the Trump Admin’s Re-Building of the US’ Pillars of Power & The old to New System Phase Transition

• 📄 PoP: US & China — Important Perspective on Cold War 2.0

Current VIII: The Peaceful Re-Balancing — China Comes to the Table

This is what it was all building toward.

The entire sequencing over the last year+ was to build leverage relative to China.

The Peaceful Re-Balancing was the explicit forecast from the very beginning — written before the Middle East deals, before Hormuz, before Venezuela et al.

The logic was always simple: the US is the primary over-consumer. China is the primary over-producer. A Re-Balancing — US reduces Consumption (increases Production), China reduces Production (increases Consumption) — is non-zero-sum. Both sides can be better off if structured intelligently.

But you don’t get to non-zero-sum negotiations from a position of weakness. You get there from a position of maximum leverage.

The sequence was the leverage-building exercise:

• Tariffs signaled the end of the old System and got everyone to the table

• Pillars of Power rebuild strengthened the US foundation

• Middle East deals created the New System template and reduced US dependencies

• Chokepoint strategy exposed China’s Energy vulnerability and old System dependence, giving the US asymmetric leverage

• Now, from a position of strength, the negotiations with China truly begin

The forecast: China is offered entrance into the New System — if it plays by the rules.

• The carrots: access to the US AI stack (notably semiconductor capital equipment, tied to Nvidia purchases), the US market, normalized relations, et al.

• The stick: exclusion from the New System; the old System no longer exists as an option.

This absolutely will NOT stop the current parallel focus on Critical Product Production Re-shoring, the Pillars of Power Re-Building, and the related ongoing Strategic Rivalry — Cold War 2.0 with Space Race 2.0 within – composed of multiple building blocks (Semiconductors, Compute, Data, Algorithms) across multiple spheres (Arctic, Space, Ocean).

The Peaceful Re-Balancing within the ongoing Strategic Rivalry.

#DialecticThinking

And now the US & China have set up bilateral groups to help facilitate this Peaceful Re-Balancing envisioned over a year ago:

• Board of Trade - continuing and expanding trade in Non-Critical areas (like our lovely rubber ducks) — a distinction I created a year ago.

• Board of Investment - evaluating opportunities for Chinese ‘surplus’ investment into US Productive Capacity (atoms), instead of just ‘bits’ (Treasuries, Stocks, et al).

The combination would naturally Re-Balance an otherwise unsustainably imbalanced System. China increases Consumption; US increases Production. Surplus capital flows toward Productive Capacity (atoms) in the US, not just un-productive financial assets (bits) — mirroring the US/Middle East deals.

The Peaceful Re-Balancing is not idealism. It is the logical endpoint of a strategy designed from First Principles, executed in sequence, and now arriving at its ‘final’ chapter. Which is really just the beginning of the New System.

The Currents beneath the Chaos are there for those who choose to ‘see.’

“On the margin, China needs to shift its balance more toward Consumption, while the US needs to shift its balance more toward Production – a peaceful, non-zero sum outcome would be ideal. The more we can observe what is actually happening, understand why, and listen to each Party’s perspective, the more likely a creative win-win situation arises.”

— China & The Xi Agenda — February 2025

“The US is likely to re-engage in deeper negotiations with China once this new System is in place and fortified with Allies... That is when the Trump Admin will likely have its peak negotiating leverage — and will offer China entrance into this new System, if it plays by the Rules.”

— Tariffs (Part II) — May 2025

“The Peaceful Re-Balancing has begun. Old System is dead. New System is emerging.”

— Note — May 2026

Relevant Deep-Dive Content:

• 📄 The System Series: Tariffs (Part II) — Tariffs & The Re-Balancing of the Global System

• 📄 PoP: US & China — Important Perspective on Cold War 2.0

• 📄 PoP: US & China — A Brief Update on Cold War 2.0

• 📄 The End of the old & The Beginning of the New — Over the last 15 Months the US Systematically ended the old System & Built a New One

The Sequence at a Glance

One More Thing

Every component of this sequence was laid out in advance.

Not because of intelligence or inside information. But because of a framework — the Pillars of Power — and the discipline to follow the logic rather than the noise.

Awareness of where you are in the waves, and an understanding of the objectives, allows you to see the bigger picture. It does not mean getting everything right. But it does mean understanding the forest instead of getting lost in the trees.

While the experts who have gotten everything wrong will inevitably say it was not predictable. Refusing to take accountability.

Or they’ll pretend they had it correct all along. Refusing transparency.

Take a step back. Check their track record. Curate, curate, curate.

Re-focus your time and attention — your flowing energy — on those with pure intention seeking to nourish your mind.

And if you missed the sequencing over the last year+, that’s fine.

But stop digging. Stop listening to the manipulated media and the related ‘experts.’ Reconnect within. Think for yourself.

This is just the beginning of a new wave. The beginning of a new era of opportunity for those willing to re-frame disruption as opportunity.

The point of this foundational content is to attempt to boost awareness.

Awareness → Understanding → Empowerment → Better Decisions → Brighter Future

While the media wanted you watching penguins and empty shelves.

The sequence was always there… under the superficial surface.

Foundational Reading:

• Content User Guide — the full reading list in logical order

• Pillars of Power Primer — the framework that underlies all of it

If you enjoy the content, subscribe.

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Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

Deep-dives: Substack

Short notes: Substack notes

Videos & Podcasts: YouTube

Tweets: X

Website: AquaVis

Disclosures

This commentary has been prepared by AquaVis Advisors LLC (“AquaVis”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does it constitute investment advice or a recommendation to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, AquaVis makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

Any opinions or estimates expressed reflect personal views as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider this material as only one input in their decision-making process and should obtain independent financial, legal, and tax advice before making any investment decisions.

Investing in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and may be affected by changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, credit conditions, and the price or volatility of underlying assets. Certain investments may be speculative and are not suitable for all investors.

AquaVis may, from time to time, have long or short positions in securities or other financial instruments mentioned and may transact in such instruments without further notice.

“Everything old is new again” — Jonathan Swift

Around 80 years ago, the US-led old System was born.

• The System was built after WWII with a foundational underlying mindset of Growth — grow the pie, and everyone can be better off (+ / +).

• Focused on the long-term and the collective, the System worked for over 50 years with expansion, prosperity, and relative balance — achieving a ‘peak’ Golden Age by the 1990s. This piece covers it in depth.

Around 30 years ago, the US-led old System was quietly infiltrated and subverted.

• The System was slowly taken over by a ‘collective parasite,’ shifting the foundational mindset away from Growth, toward scarcity — shrink the pie, with the few grabbing a larger slice at the expense of the many (+ / -).

• Focused on the short-term and the self, the subverted System degraded the US/West for decades, while strengthening adversaries and enriching the co-opted ‘elite.’ The unaffordability crisis for younger generations and the National Security vulnerabilities in the US/West are downstream outputs of this subverted System. This piece covers it in depth.

Over the last ~1 year, the US has woken up and begun to wake up the World.

• The old System that was infiltrated and subverted is irredeemable — it is a dead host, fully controlled and consumed by the collective parasite. That old System is ending — Tariffs signaled its coming end, the chokepoint blockades are cutting off the oxygen.

• Though it may not look like it on the surface — given the manipulated media and the intentionally externally chaotic strategy — the US has been building a parallel New System together with allies over the last year. Built upon abundance and mutual burden sharing, the New System is once again focused on growing the collective pie (+ / +).

Today, every thing is changing. Things ‘rhyme’ because every thing is a wave.

That is why every thing that was once old, is new again.

The original old System — originally built on Growth and abundance — is the template for the New.

Study the past, to understand the present, and shape the future.

This just-published two-part piece below is an important read for anyone wanting to understand what is going on and why. To prepare for, capitalize on, and shape what is coming next…

• The Multi-Decade Quiet War & The System Phase Transition

  • Part I - From the Exploitation of the old System to the Building of the New System - delving into how the old System was quietly subverted by adversaries

  • Part II - Deep-Dive into the Trump Admin’s Re-Building of the US’ Pillars of Power & The old to New System Phase Transition - connecting the dots on the Trump Admin’s Strategy to end the old and the architect the New System

These two pieces connect the dots across a lot of the content published over the last year — from the core coverage of the ongoing Cold War 2.0 between the US & China, to the sub-spheres of the Arctic, Space and the deeply interrelated Technology (AI) Race to control the World Order.

And they pair seamlessly with the Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny series — check out the full Content User Guide to understand the interconnections.

Read the series, share your thoughts, engage in con-structive discourse.

While you do not have to agree, it is important to engage.

Active intentional participation shapes the future.

Awareness is step one.

Decisions today will matter for decades.

The New System and its foundational Policies are an ‘uncarved block’ — for us to now collectively shape.

En-semble the ‘best’ ideas of the East + West.

Time to Build.

If you enjoy the content, subscribe.

Subscribe now

If it is useful, share.

Share

Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

Deep-dives: Substack

Short notes: Substack notes

Videos & Podcasts: YouTube

Tweets: X

Website: AquaVis

Disclosures

This commentary has been prepared by AquaVis Advisors LLC (“AquaVis”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does it constitute investment advice or a recommendation to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, AquaVis makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

Any opinions or estimates expressed reflect personal views as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider this material as only one input in their decision-making process and should obtain independent financial, legal, and tax advice before making any investment decisions.

Investing in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and may be affected by changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, credit conditions, and the price or volatility of underlying assets. Certain investments may be speculative and are not suitable for all investors.

AquaVis may, from time to time, have long or short positions in securities or other financial instruments mentioned and may transact in such instruments without further notice.

Now we move on to connecting dots across recent strategic actions as the Quiet War grows louder, and the old to New System phase transition accelerates.

To be clear upfront. This analysis does not mean that the Trump Admin is doing everything right. Nor is it an endorsement of every Policy and/or action.

It is simply a recognition that the Admin is:

• Aware that the old System weakened the US and strengthened adversaries

• Ending the old System

• Re-building a New System

• Upsetting a lot of people who benefitted from the old System

Make sure to curate your sources. A lot of the ‘mainstream’ media has ties to the old System — and is thus incentivized to preserve it to maintain control.

To understand how all of this ties together — from the birth of the old System post-WWII and the rise of US hegemony, to the degradation of the old System and the emergence of the New — check out this simple User Guide. It covers all of the foundational content — meant to get anyone and everyone up to speed on the System, the ‘water everyone is swimming in,’ from a first principles perspective.

Moving on to more recent signposts and the building of the New System — all revolving around the Pillars of Power.

Starting with everyone’s favorite…

TECHNOLOGY

The Technology (AI) Race is The Race to establish Power and Control the Global World Order.

I’ve held this view for a long time.

Publicly since publishing:

And long before that privately — a conviction built through the process of building the Pillars of Power framework.

I’ve written about this extensively, and everyday it’s proven stronger. The thesis rests on thousands of years of History — we are simply in another wave. And the ‘winner’ of that wave typically controls the Global World Order. The System.

While the definition of Technology may remain the ‘same,’ what comprises it changes over time — and thus innovation leadership requires continual investment.

As noted, this Technological Revolution revolves around AI. Adversaries are and have been quite aware of this for some time.

The US & the Trump Agenda - 6 Months In covers the foundational Policies focused on Technology — from the AI Action Plan, to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, to Critical Product Tariffs and more — which primarily incentivize AI Infrastructure — the base (Compute) layer; what I call Phase 1 of the Technology Revolution. If you have not read that piece, I’d recommend it — this piece builds upon that one.

We are beginning to see the 2025 Policy foundation begin to manifest into the 2026 physical reality.

Capital expenditures focused on AI Infrastructure are accelerating, partially as a result of these Policies — covered in detail.

And the Trump Admin clearly remains focused on the relative progress here:

‘U.S. global compute share has risen from the 30% range into the 50% range and could reach 70% to 80% within a few years’ — Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary

As the build out and control over this layer remains a National Security imperative.

The ‘trains’ (Phase 2) are useless without the ‘tracks’ (Phase 1).

‘If you build it, he will come’ is the current approach to the Phase 1 Compute layer plan, and so far it is playing out — with demand continuing to outstrip supply.

The US is uniquely positioned relative to China and the rest of the world as the US owns the entire AI stack.

Access to that US AI Stack is a key ‘carrot’ to entice countries into the New System:

Tariffs removed the option of ‘keeping’ the old System. The US/Middle East deals laid the template for the New System. And closing the Strait of Hormuz is the forcing function to shift:

Most countries are choosing to join the New System…

With more to come. #SovereignAI.

There are multiple reasons why Technology Revolutions tend to enable shifts in the Global Power structure. Leadership in these Revolutions — notably in the end-to-end stack — provide you with both leverage and often asymmetric Power.

Laid all of this out over the last year — highlighting the importance of context and sequencing.

Can this overall AI layer be used in negative ways (i.e., AI Surveillance State)? Absolutely. This is likely my biggest concern — particularly in the ‘wrong’ hands. Deep-dive for another time, but broader immediate points are:

• It is absolutely a race — if adversaries win, you will be beholden to their AI

• It can be used for good — deterrence and productivity

And thus, the underlying ‘existential’ framing — from corporates to sovereigns — is and will continue to drive this Technological Revolution forward.

You can see how all of these pieces interconnect — from the (AI) Technology Revolution to re-shoring Critical Product Production to the New System and beyond. Again, you do not have to like it — but I would recommend recognizing it. Start here to connect the dots.

While the Compute build-out continues, it is ‘simply’ the base layer. You do not (or at least should not) just build out infrastructure… to build out infrastructure (#Chinahousing).

Phase 1 is a pre-requisite to the aptly named Phase 2 — sequencing matters.

Applications — or what I call Phase 2 of the Technology (AI) Revolution — are coming next.

Starting with The Genesis Mission. It’s purpose: ‘unleash a new age of AI‑accelerated innovation and discovery that can solve the most challenging problems of this century.’

Almost no one talks about this Mission — aside from — and yet it is a key application on top of the aforementioned Compute layer. Pairing vast, once proprietary ‘siloed’ scientific Data from all of the US National Laboratories with the power of leading-edge AI Algorithms could unlock serious break-throughs — notably in the realm of Energy (e.g., fusion and fission).

A national effort to accelerate the application of AI for transformative scientific discovery focused on pressing national challenges

Likened to the Manhattan Project:

In this pivotal moment, the challenges we face require a historic national effort, comparable in urgency and ambition to the Manhattan Project that was instrumental to our victory in World War II

The un-leashing of this pent-up energy in the Science sphere — an area where progress has been intentionally stifled — has the potential to be transformational.

Expect more out of the Genesis Mission in the coming months and years.

In the meantime, in the AI ‘base’ model race, Anthropic has begun pulling ahead of OpenAI:

Prior to the release of Anthropic’s Mythos base model — which is an output of the Policies and related accelerated Phase 1 build over the last year.

So far, scaling laws continue to hold: more Compute = better model (generally). Paired with new chips and new techniques, Mythos is ‘rumored’ to be quite powerful. So powerful it’s public launch was delayed, while it was deployed by a select few entities to patch ‘critical’ cybersecurity and software vulnerabilities.

Marketing campaign or not, this certainly appears to be a step-function change in the Technology Race.

Meanwhile, China has taken a completely different approach to AI. Rather than spending heavily on Phase 1 (Infrastructure), they have chosen to take a ‘capex-light’ approach — actively distilling (essentially ‘copying’) US base models and creating open-source models that are ‘good enough,’ just behind the US base models.

But the issue is — they do not have the underlying ‘weights’ of the models. At the frontier, they train on the outputs. Simplistically, the distilled models are like a kid (Bob) who copies another kid’s (Bill) answers on a test. Bill gets an A, Bob gets a B. The issue is, Bob doesn’t actually know anything; he just copied Bill.

And this strategy is beginning to backfire as the US cracks down on distillation:

To be clear, China is not doing this with all models. China is able to innovate — I do not take the hubristic view that they are ‘dumb.’ They’ve built up some serious domestic competitors.

But it is also not easy to catch up with an adaptive Technology ecosystem that is constantly evolving and building upon foundational knowledge — exemplified by how difficult it is to scale and ‘shrink nodes’ to the leading edge in Semiconductors. Each step builds upon the last, and each step gets non-linearly more difficult.

This is part of the reason why the unleashing of the pent-up energy within Technology in the US is so powerful — opening up the natural flow opens up seriously expansive paths (N.B., there will be side effects to the coming disruption). Adversaries, incumbents, and the ‘aligned’ co-opted elite stifled innovation in the US for decades for a reason: None wanted change, none wanted progress in the US. All were profiting off of the status quo, and the ‘stifling’ enabled adversaries own companies to catch-up — exemplified by the auto industry.

And another part of the reason why re-shoring Critical Product Production is so critical. Semiconductors are the foundation of the current Technology Revolution. And today, most leading edge are manufactured in Taiwan.

Announcements like Terafab exemplify the confluence of Policy + Industrial Strategy + Tariffs.

And no, rubber duck manufacturing still will not be coming back to the US.

Just as the US is actively seeking to reduce it’s Critical Production Production dependence upon China, China is actively attempting to reduce dependence upon Nvidia and the US AI Tech Stack.

But Nvidia continues to expand it’s lead relative to Huawei, which further compounds to downstream models. And the US/West has a clear lead on the Semiconductor Capital Equipment and High-Bandwidth Memory front.

Which — paired with the above crackdowns and ‘smuggling’ loophole closures — has translated to the US expanding it’s lead in The Race over the last 6+ months.

But this Race is not relegated to Earth.

This deep-dive on Space is increasingly relevant.

Space is a critical New Frontier with massive opportunity for growth ( been ahead of the curve here). And massive implications for National Security.

When you take a step back, you see that everything is interconnected. The focus on Space is heating up; in the last month alone:

• Artemis II Lunar Mission - NASA’s 1st crewed lunar flyby in 50 years

• SpaceX IPO announced - “Punchline: SpaceX enables the underlying Technological feasibility of the Golden Dome; no SpaceX, no Golden Dome.”

• Golden Dome coming back into the headlines around IPO (stay tuned)

The Race to the Moon is here. Space Race 2.0 is a sub-component of Cold War 2.0.

SpaceX — the current clear leader in the Space space and the US/Western representation in the Race — just shifted it’s near-term focus towards the Moon, away from Mars.

And SpaceX has dramatically accelerated it’s launches over the last few years.

The US may have an asymmetric advantage in the Space sphere right now. And we may see that on display in places like Kharg.

For context, similar to Tariffs, Trump has been ‘aware’ of Kharg Island since the 1980s.

Overall, this all ties into The Race for asymmetric Technology. And all of this Technology is deeply interconnected.

From the Genesis Mission (Data/Application) and Mythos (Model/Algorithm), to Terafab (Semiconductors/Compute) and the SpaceX-enabled Golden Dome (Application).

The ‘Strategic Rivalry’ between the US & China is front-and-center. Re-frame everything you see through this lens.

Further, these Technologies are no longer just in the un-applied ‘research’ phase.

There have been clear applications of the Technology on the ‘battlefield.’ Everything from the ‘stealth’ capture of Maduro in Venezuela, to the use of Ghost Murmur in Iran.

These are all shows of strength. Posturing and attempted deterrence. Testing out each side to see if there actually is asymmetry.

And asymmetry comes in different forms. While typically used in the gun vs. knife approach — non-linearly more powerful (though again, pending Context). It can also be applied on the cost asymmetry front as a war-of-attrition tactic — like using cheap drones to dis-able expensive aircraft carriers.

Which is why viewing everything through the interdependent Pillars of Power lens helps ‘normalize’ and compare on a like-for-like basis.

This interview around Military Technology covers a lot of these points — from asymmetry to Quality vs. Quantity to how AI & autonomous systems fit in.

What is quite clear is that adversaries are not sitting still. They are smartly focused on foundational inputs — from rare earth processing control to undersea cable severing.

And they have been ramping up Productive Capacity for decades, now leading on the ‘Quantity’ side of the ledger — i.e., the scale of Production.

Knowing that asymmetric Technology without the ability to actually Produce it, is largely empty.

Just as China is providing Technology and related resources in Ukraine, they are doing the same in Iran.

While some may just be ‘recognizing’ it…

It’s been happening the whole time — from cutting critical communication cables to providing key Technologies.

And it’s important to note that now they are more openly highlighting it.

As the strategic race to control chokepoints — from ‘legacy’ ones like Hormuz and the Ocean, to ‘novel’ ones like Space and the Arctic — ramps up.

All using Technology to attempt to control and deter.

Unleashing pent-up energy that has been building under the surface for decades — innovation stifled by predecessors and incumbents seeking to maintain power and control — will absolutely be disruptive.

But you can re-frame disruption as opportunity — particularly for the young and adaptable.

And from an application perspective — as highlighted by the initial Pillars of Power Portfolio piece (more to come; follow Notes for updates) — this foundational framework ‘doubles’ as a naturally balanced portfolio. The understanding that Technology is foundational to the hegemon(s) agendas — from National Security to Productivity — provides incremental confidence on where to focus.

The Pillars of Power framework helps direct your attention (flowing energy) and your Money (stored energy).

Focus your time and energy where the hegemon(s) are focused. Hence why ‘bottom-of-the-filter’ companies like ONTO and GNRC have been in focus for the PoP portfolio.

The Pillars are a natural filter. A foundation to build off of:

But Technology is just one component — of the framework and the portfolio. To power that Technology you need…

ENERGY

You guessed it. Energy. Highly relevant today.

The US weakened it’s own Energy Pillar and strengthened it’s adversaries from 2022-2024 in particular.

But has been in the process of re-building the Energy Pillar over the last ~year — starting on the Policy side.

Expanding to revive the once-demonized nuclear industry.

Paired with a focus on securing related Critical Product supply chains that adversaries have commandeered.

Followed by landmark deals between the US & the Middle East — which I posited a year ago as the template for the New System.

Proving seemingly correct with each passing signpost.

Sequencing matters.

Tariffs got everyone to the table and ended the old System. Discussions around the New System began. Subsequent US/Middle East deals set the New System template. Many important deals (focused on non-China surplus countries) followed, from Japan to Germany — who both massively expanded fiscal spending for Defense.

The re-direction of external energy flows — Phase 2 is moving into Phase 3.

Meanwhile, in parallel, internal flows of energy were re-directed — as laid out above and here.

This is all a re-setting and re-building of the foundation. Everything revolves around the ‘big’ focus: The Cold War between the US & China.

The actions around Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, et al. had to logically come after Tariffs and the New System deals. Walking through a few of them:

• Panama Canal - critical chokepoint for trade (Money) + Energy

• Greenland - critical chokepoint + resources + Golden Dome ‘hub’ in the emerging Arctic sphere

• Venezuela - from oil reserves and critical minerals (Energy), to a hub for UUVs and Space (Technology), to a hoard of gold (Money)

• Russia’s Shadow Fleet - Energy for China, Money for Russia

• Cuba - hub for adversaries in Western Hemisphere, notably UUVs

• Iran - Strait of Hormuz embodies all of the Pillars, from trade (Money) to oil and food (Energy) to Technology to keep it safe and open

• Indonesia - the Strait of Malacca is next; critical (~80%) for China’s Energy imports

Again, sequencing matters. You can’t install a roof before you’ve built the framing.

Just as there is a reason for the intentional ordering of the AquaVis content, there is a rationale to the intentional ordering of the Trump Admin’s actions.

Follow the above pieces — Panama Canal, Venezuela, Russia’s Shadow Fleet, Iran, Indonesia…

What do they all revolve around? Energy chokepoints.

Chokepoints are asymmetric leverage points within Systems. While they are often ‘small’ in size they hold ‘large’ relative impact on flows. Think of traffic — whether in line at your local coffee shop or on the road home from work. Often there are single points where ‘pressure’ builds up.

Control the chokepoints, control the flow.

gets it.

Now is pointing it out as well — further detailing how this chokepoint assertion strategy not only weakens China, but further strengthens the US by effectively making the World more dependent upon US Energy.

And why Energy? That is China’s relative Pillar of Power weak point.

An asymmetric leverage point for the US (Energy in-dependent) relative to China (Energy dependent) — further amplified by chokepoint assertion strategy laid out above to control the flow. Exploiting the chokepoints of the adversary’s weakest Pillar = asymmetric.

As noted, China is not dumb. They have been building out alternatives for decades — laid out in detail here. But today those alternatives are insufficient.

Today, China is primarily reliant upon coal — yes, ‘clean energy’ was an adversary propaganda campaign to attempt to weaken the West; all laid out neatly here and in Unrestricted Warfare. And Russia. With these actions, that reliance upon Russia is increasing — a rising dependency. A potential for imbalance in the DragonBear () relationship.

To attempt to circumvent the sea chokepoints — listed above — China has been building out the Belt and Road Initiative. Still in process, but a lot of that infrastructure has been damaged. Notably the recently opened rail link between Xi’an in Western China and Tehran in Iran — most missed this a year ago:

Again, China is obviously not dumb. They are deeply aware of the Rimland/Heartland/Mahan theses and doctrines — creating chaos on land to increase the importance of the sea.

But the narrowing of options is quite clear — with the Trump Admin systematically cutting off alternative Energy options to build maximum leverage. Fewer alternatives, less leverage.

And why does Energy matter again? No Energy = No Industry.

If you cannot power your Productive Capacity, then it is empty. And think about how important Productive Capacity (e.g., data centers) is in the middle of a Technological Revolution that will likely determine who controls the World Order… The deeply interconnected Pillars of Power.

In the short term, while the West has begun re-building Critical Product Productive Capacity, China still has a lead on that front.

Thus, the US/West has effectively gone upstream of China’s Productive Capacity to it’s foundational input — Energy.

Just as China, Russia and other adversaries systematically exploited the old System, exposing it’s vulnerabilities to weaken the US and strengthen themselves. The US is systematically doing the same in return, now flipping the old System against itself — leveraging it’s own (US) strengths, while exposing it’s adversaries weaknesses.

And again, this is not the US of the 1970s — it’s Energy Pillar is relatively stronger, while it’s Money Pillar is relatively weaker.

And now, with the New System in place and chokepoint sequencing progressing, the Strategy all builds to a head to achieve maximum leverage in the upcoming negotiations (‘Phase 3’) with China — the actual primary adversary.

The Strategy exists, whether people like it or not, whether people can ‘see’ it or not.

I ‘forecasted’ a lot of this. Not because of intelligence. But because of paying attention to what matters. The Pillars. The patterns. The waves. The overarching Strategy. While most are lost in the trees — intentionally mis-directed by the media.

Be careful of manipulated media. Mis-aligned ‘experts.’ And/or those with underlying ‘hidden’ agendas. Be sure to question those who adopt new views without acknowledging being incorrect, intentionally ignore China as a player in the Great Game, and/or actively seek to manifest polarity and sow distrust in the West.

‘Unrestricted Warfare’ runs deep, on all ‘sides.’

‘Everyone has access to the information. Almost no one connects the dots.’

Back to Energy.

So yes. Sequencing for all of this matters.

From fixing the foundation at home.

To the Western Hemisphere.

To ‘controlling’ shadow fleets.

To creating ‘chaos’ at key chokepoints.

To establishing US dominance via US Corporates across key reserves.

While China has been working to remove this Energy dependency.

The US is systematically exposing it in a ‘game’ of leverage.

Strait of Malacca is next, in my view — all part of a step-by-step strategy.

Even if the leverage points are not ‘leveraged today,’ they are important vectors of control.

And in the ‘Great Game,’ Dependence = Weakness; Control = Strength.

Notably the control over…

MONEY

Money.

To buy that Energy — notably increasingly important US LNG (#Petrogas-Dollar) — what do you need?

US Dollars — likely via US Stablecoins as a medium of exchange.

US Stablecoins: Money with incremental control built on the blockchain (discussed below; laid it out neatly as well); removing the ‘lack of visibility’ issue in the Eurodollar market.

And what’s the best way to ‘launch’ that initiative? A System ‘crisis’ — a sequence of events that literally end the old System, and begin the New.

Tariffs were the wake up call ending the old System. The US/Middle East deals were the template for the New System. The Strait of Hormuz blockade is the forcing function between the two. Swap lines provided as ‘bridges’ to those joining the New System. With the transition to US Stablecoins coming soon…

This all sounds ‘insane’ to most because most are un-aware of the water they are swimming in. Still listening to the manipulated media and linear-thinking ‘experts’ who continue to get everything wrong.

Money is often overlooked as a vector of control, as a Pillar of Power. Even more so in the US, because citizens have become so ‘complacent’ with the status quo. With few ever questioning the ‘water’ they swim — the System itself.

And thus, it is the Perspective-inducing events — like Tariffs or blocking key chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz — that begin to wake people up.

Hm. Most countries since WWII have tariffed the US to send Production out of the US?

Hm. The US Navy is the only reason safe trade around the world can happen?

So, for some perspective, what happens if the US decides to flip the System on it’s head:

• Instead of everyone tariffing the US, what if the US tariffed everyone?

• Instead of the US enabling trade (via security), what if the US stopped trade?

These are not meant to be the end states. But rather, perspective-inducing events to wake people up to the reality of the old System.

These actions are meant to show people how adversaries manipulated the old System. How adversaries exploited the old System. Adversaries are the reason sea lanes are not safe in the first place. Adversaries are the reason the Production im-balance became so extreme. The old System only worked because the US provided the security. The old System only worked because the US incentivized it’s own Production to leave.

The US architected a System of abundance after WWII, and it was transformed into a System of scarcity by adversaries over the last ~25+ years.

It was transformed into a System that literally destroyed the US/West — from societal-fabric-tearing wealth inequality, to National-Security-concerning de-industrialization.

Many noticed the symptoms of degradation in the West — wealth inequality, de-industrialization, family & fertility crisis — but few connect the dots on why.

Few recognize that it was the corruption and subversion of the old System itself — by adversaries, the co-opted elite, and greedy incumbents — that caused those downstream symptoms.

The root — the foundation layer of the System — was corrupted, infected by a scarcity-minded virus that systematically strengthened adversaries and destroyed allies.

With these perspective-inducing actions — from Tariffs to Blockades — people may have a better appreciation, a clearer understanding, a more complete perspective on why the old System had to end.

I label this Money Pillar strategy: Tariffs, Tolls, & Tribute.

Each element laid out a year ago:

• Tariffs - a multi-purpose tool, ending the old System and re-directing Money flows in the New.

• Tolls - Security — trade or otherwise — is not free. Access to the USD network (e.g., swap lines) is not free.

  This leads into a potential Revenue source – maybe there is a toll to access this new System? Maybe there is a toll to access the USD Network?

  Tariffs (Part II)

• Tribute - Every country is different; choose how you want to con-tribute to the New System. Increase your Defense budget, buy low-yielding US century bonds…

Simply, the New System does not allow for free riding.

Everyone is welcome. But everyone must contribute. And play by the rules.

When you build in non-zero-sum outcomes where everyone can win and grow the pie, is it surprising people want to join? Look at the post-WWII pie expansion — we’ve done it before. Look at the US/Middle East deals — the template for the New System.

Access to the New System is not ‘free.’ The structure revolves around the Pillars of Power. And the principles revolve around Balance — mirroring Nature and it’s homeostatic tendency.

The New System revolves around balanced burden-sharing, ensembling each member’s relative strengths into a collectively stronger whole.

As a result of the subversion and exploitation of the old System, today there are many im-balances in the World. Tools — Tariffs, Tolls, Tribute and more — and Trade Deals are meant to re-balance the New System toward equilibrium.

One obvious im-balance is the Production ‘under-supply,’ Consumption ‘over-supply’ in the West.

As noted above, Money ‘alone’ is empty. The Pillars are interdependent. Money needs to be backed by sustainable Physical Power — via asymmetric Technology, Productive Capacity to Build it, and Energy to Power it.

Tariffs were the opening ‘Production Re-Balancing’ shot.

The US/Middle East deals moved vision toward reality, followed by Japan et al.

Of course, not many have paid attention to the re-direction of where Money is flowing as a result of these deals.

All the doomers out there keep saying ‘the US has no Productive Capacity, you’re doomed.’

Of course, without providing any solutions. Just playing the game for the clicks. And you know who loves ‘clicking?’ CCP bots. Russian trolls. Iranian & North Korean hackers. #UnrestrictedWarfare

Just remove these energy suckers. They are literally wasting your time, your energy.

While they were out feeding bot farms and capturing attention, the entire architecture of Money flows was being rewritten. And it is literally happening as we speak.

The foundation was set a year ago, the building is happening now — it is an observable reality. From Semiconductor Manufacturing to AI Data Centers, the Critical Product Production re-balancing is in full swing in the US, financed by the re-direction of these Money flows:

You’ll never hear this in the captured and corrupted mainstream media. Or in the biased ‘alternative’ media.

But this is exactly what I’ve been focused on mapping out over the last year+. Certainly not getting everything right. But the framework has been pretty darn useful.

All of these signposts for the New System — laid out a year ago — continue to build up.

The US has accelerated investment in the Technology Pillar — detailed above, and in this highly relevant tweet.

While simultaneously re-directing Money flows — domestic and abroad — toward Critical Product Productive Capacity to ‘build’ the Technology.

Meanwhile, the Technology powering the Money has not been re-visited in decades. SWIFT was literally created in the 1970s.

Blockchain — which has been around for decades, but is only being harnessed now — is the new ‘base layer’ Technology that will ‘power’ Money going forward.

Notably, USD stablecoins. This piece is already too long — more on the details of this in the upcoming Mar-a-Lago piece. In the meantime, check out great recent deep-dive on Stablecoins & Swaplines — which essentially foots directly with my view (Brent is a great resource on the Money Pillar).

As I’ve highlighted, the GENIUS Act established the stablecoin foundation. Two notable ‘implications’ I’ll quickly cover:

• USD stablecoins provide incremental visibility and control around the supply of dollars, notably in the Eurodollar (or offshore dollar) market

• USD stablecoins must effectively be backed by Treasury Bills

The combination unequivocally provides more control, and thus more Power, for the US. (Similar to the AI comment above, this provides another vector of ‘in the wrong hands, this can be bad’ that must be addressed)

While the deficit in the US remains extreme, the underlying components of the flows are changing — towards generally Productive Critical Product Production at the margin — and the stablecoin initiative will help on the financing side.

Meanwhile, the multi-year Mar-a-Lago Accord continues in the background — from the Sovereign Wealth Fund, to the OSC key National Security directed investments. Just like most missed the dot-connecting around Tariffs and the New System, and Space, the Arctic, and Iran, they are missing this as well. Piece coming soon.

Overall, the US’ Money Pillar relative strength hit a nadir in 2024 and has begun it’s rebound — led by Bessent and co.

Tariffs, Tolls, & Tribute will all con-tribute to building a more balanced New System — which, unsurprisingly revolves around all of the Pillars of Power…

CONFLUENCE

The Strategy over the last ~15 months across each Pillar is similar:

• Close the loopholes — the ‘leaks’ of energy from the old System that strengthen adversaries and weaken the US

  • Technology - Critical Product Tariffs, enforced export controls et al.

    • No more illicit access to leading edge Technology for adversaries

  • Energy - Greenland, Russian shadow fleet, Venezuela, Iran, et al.

    • No more illicit ‘cheap,’ subsidized Energy for adversaries

  • Money - Cut off funding to subverted organizations (e.g., USAID, WTO, cartels), control key trade routes

    • No more directly subversive funding for adversaries

• Lay the ‘sound’ foundation & accelerate the building — unleash ‘energy’ in the New System that strengthens it’s constituents

  • Technology - AI Action Plan, OBBBA, Pax Silica, et al

    • Re-direct and expand the flows toward The Technology Race

  • Energy - Unleashing American Energy

    • Re-direct and expand the flows toward US Energy

  • Money - Re-direction of Money flows toward Critical Product Productive Capacity; Building a New Monetary System using Technology

    • Re-direct flows toward Productive uses, build a parallel new monetary system around blockchain

Systematically close the loopholes, while simultaneously laying the foundation for the future. Ending old, subversive flows of energy. Re-directing energy toward strengthening the New. AquaVis — follow the flows…

2025 set the foundation. 2026 is the execution and beginning of the expansion.

If you want to build a house, don’t start with the roof.

With the foundation of the New System in place, you then systematically end the old System and its flows.

As detailed, the old System was ‘taken over’ by adversaries — from China/Russia and co, to co-opted elites — 25+ years ago. This collective ‘parasite’ took over the old System — re-directing all of it’s flows towards itself, weakening the architect (US) and the host (the System itself).

This co-opted old System systematically strengthened adversaries, enriched co-opted elites, and propped up weak incumbents — the collective ‘parasite.’ The collective parasite operated in a zero-sum way, sucking energy from everyone else and feeding itself.

And yet, this old System only functions and exists because of it’s original architect — the US. The US let countries tariff it, to send it’s production overseas. The US provided security to enable safe trade for all. Without the US’ support, the old System ceases to exist.

So what happens when the US systematically decides to end the old System — killing the ‘host,’ the food source for this scarcity-minded parasite?

The parasite needs to fend for itself.

This is where we are today. The parasite is looking for a new host.

Will it join the mutualistic New System — built upon the principles of burden-sharing, following the rules, growing the pie and non-zero-sum outcomes?

Or will it choose to try to build it’s own System?

Grow together, or die ‘alone’?

This is the encircling for leverage I laid out a year ago in the Tariffs piece. We are now entering Phase 3.

The old System is no longer an option. It’s dead. As I said a year ago, the boats have been burned.

The New System is built on abundance and mutual burden sharing — with each country providing it’s own area of relative ‘expertise’ and surplus in the Pillars of Power realm.

The US sits at the center of the New System as the hegemon with the strongest Pillars of Power:

• Technology - End-to-end AI Technology stack — access to it is the new ‘Security’ umbrella

• Energy - US LNG in particular

• Money - US Stablecoins as the medium of exchange; flows toward Critical Product Production. Expect a combination of gold and bitcoin as neutral net settlement reserve

• Confluence - Technology (AI), powered by cheap, abundant Energy (Natural Gas, et al.), funded by fully-controlled Money (USD Stablecoins)

But, similar to after WWII, the US is inviting everyone to join the New System with a growth mindset. An opportunity to grow the pie, and build a world where everyone is potentially better off.

Every thing is changing.

OPPORTUNITY FOR NON-ZERO-SUM

While the above may sound escalatory in a conflict sense, it both is and is not.

Both sides are simultaneously ramping up military efforts:

• US

  • Auto OEMs tapped for Military Production

  • Defense Production Act invoked for grid infrastructure, baseload power, et al.

  • Automatic military draft registration in the US starting December 2026

  • Department of Defense (War) Budget of $1.5 Trillion

• China

  • Wartime economy since COVID in 2020

  • Building up strategic reserves — food, energy, etc.

  • Mass youth unemployment, notably male

And negotiating terms of the New System.

It’s hard to hold two ‘opposing’ ideas in your mind. But this is the reality of what is happening. The old System is ending. The New System is being built.

And the US is directly inviting China, Russia, et al. — the adversaries who subverted the old System — into the New System, IF they play by the rules.

While simultaneously building up the resilience and adaptability of its Pillars of Power to ideally deter, but otherwise defend.

The National Defense Strategy from January lays a lot of this out.

• Peace through Strength

• America First — defending the Homeland (the Foundation) & Western Hemisphere

• Burden-sharing with Allies and decentralizing Power around the World (e.g., Japan in Asia, Germany in Europe, Israel in Middle East)

• Deterring China — with a focus on respectful competition, not humiliation

• Build up US Defense Industrial Base (Critical Product Production) to enable the above — The Pillars of Power in action

It sounds contradictory, but is it not. Just as dialectic thinking covers both light and dark, these are two interdependent parts of a whole strategy.

The ‘Western Hemisphere’ fortress — which I outlined and forecasted over a year ago— is the foundation off of which to build the New System. The building of it gives you the leverage. It re-fortifies your Pillars, which give you Power.

Without re-building your Pillars, your gestures are empty. Adversaries will see right through them — knowing you have no alternatives.

An example. You step outside and it begins pouring rain. You have to be at a meeting a few blocks away. Traffic is standstill. You have to walk. There is one umbrella vendor conveniently next to you. You do not have alternatives. You get really wet — not a great look for your meeting. Or you buy an overpriced umbrella from the sole vendor. The vendor holds the cards.

Legitimate alternatives provide leverage. The lack of legitimate alternatives leave you as a leverage-less price taker.

The US has legitimate alternatives in a New System without China and Russia.

China and Russia would collapse in a System by themselves.

After the worst multi-decade stretch of leadership in US History over the last ~30 years, with the fastest degradation in it’s Pillars ever. In the last 15 months, the US has pulled a complete 180 — now strengthening it’s relative Pillars of Power at the fastest clip ever.

All of this with a core focus on Technology — removing any bottlenecks along the way.

There is a reason I specifically say asymmetric Technology enables deterrence. That is what the race is for, asymmetry. The strategic rivalry continues — ideally ‘cold’ on the direct front, at the very least — until one side establishes asymmetry.

In the meantime, communication is critical. Channels appear open, for now — despite the obvious posturing for leverage.

I do not think all wars will magically end. They are too profitable for the ‘people behind them.’

But I do think there is an opportunity to contain the kinetic, and keep the strategic rivalry as a respectful competition in the ongoing ‘battle for asymmetry.’

I do not know whether escalation around Taiwan occurs. Both sides are clearly preparing for it. But I simultaneously do see a path for a non-zero-sum outcome. A topic for a deeper piece, but a quick snapshot, strongly-out-of-consensus view on the US/China relationship via the Pillars:

• Technology — strategic rivalry continues in The AI Race — ‘Space Race 2.0’ within Cold War 2.0 – composed of multiple building blocks (Semiconductors, Compute, Data, Algorithms) across multiple spheres (Arctic, Space, Ocean).

  • China gets access to old Nvidia chips, while simultaneously building out it’s domestic capabilities via Huawei

  • China provides access to rare earth processing, while US provides access to SemiCap Equipment

  • China is promised reunification with Taiwan at a distant date in the future (2030+), once Critical Product Production is built elsewhere for resilience

• Energy - China buys US LNG and likely some agricultural products

• Money - Gold ‘marches’ higher, allowing both US & China to mark-to-market their holdings and reduce their net debt burden

  • China invests in Critical Product Production within the US (e.g., BYD plant in Ohio) for access to the US market for products made in the US

  • US continues to buy Non-Critical Products from China

The ‘imaginative’ list goes on. All non-zero sum opportunities almost no one is talking about. And yet the bread crumbs are there. The opportunity for a peaceful re-balancing — as laid out a year ago — is there.

Again, it ‘seems’ far-fetched. But I think dialogue is ongoing as each side considers it’s respective options.

We’ll see what comes of the upcoming ‘negotiations’ between the hegemons. The window for escalation is ‘narrowing’ as the US wakes up and strengthens it’s Pillars, and China/Russia enter demographic ‘collapse.’

The awareness of all of this changes the future — notably when paired with intentional action. It’s quantum.

It’s time to wake up and expand perspective. To see different points of view. To appreciate various cultures.

To respectfully and actively listen. To engage in con-structive discourse. To pursue progress for the collective.

En-sembling works in machine learning models. It also works in building a better World. Starting with…

PERSPECTIVE

To appreciate light, you must experience ‘no light’ — the depths of darkness (empty light).

To appreciate security, you must experience ‘no security’ — the depths of vulnerability (empty security).

To appreciate a vote that counts, you must experience one that does not. Ask

Your ‘best meal’ was likely not a 3-star Michelin tasting menu. It was the honey bun you had when you were on empty.

A lot of what we see today is Perspective inducing.

People have become so complacent — so un-aware of the water they are swimming in, the System they operate in — that they do not appreciate it.

They just assume security is provided, that trade happens simply and securely.

Oh I click a button online and whatever I want is delivered to my door — quickly, cheaply, securely.

There are costs to all of the above. There are costs to ‘simply’ maintaining a System.

Actions like Tariffs and Strait closures force perspective. Force recognition. Force change. Force a transition to a New System that (ideally) actually serves both the architect and the members.

Adversaries and co-opted elites exploited the old System. They ‘spoiled’ the party. It does not make any sense for a hegemon — the architect of the old System — to continue to support a System that systematically destroys it.

To participate in a System is a privilege. Aligning incentives, burden-sharing, and ensuring accountability are key foundational steps.

Rarely are things actually black and white.

They typically sit on a continuum.

The opportunities are in the gray.

And they require con-structive discourse and thoughtful decisions.

We shape the future with our decisions. Make them count…

AGENCY

While many seem relegated to letting the world happen to them. And/or pointing out problems without accompanying solutions.

I believe we can and absolutely will shape the future.

Awareness of the problems is step one.

Many seem to stop there. Just pointing out problems.

• Want to complain? Listen to mainstream media

• Want to confirm your biases? Listen to the echo chamber of constantly incorrect ‘experts’

• Want to pursue the truth? Join the revolution…

‘You can’t handle the truth.’

Everything you thought you knew was a lie. Ignoring the foundational truths now presented doesn’t make them go away.

Co-opted elites, adversaries, greedy incumbents — they are all the same. The collective parasite. The scarcity ‘sycophants’ of the old System.

Wake up. Stop feeding ‘them’ and the old System with your attention, your energy, your money.

The old System is dead. There is no going back.

The New System is here. Time to shape it positively.

Respond, don’t react.

Take responsibility, stop diffusing.

Remove centralized control. Remove distractions. Remove the external.

Go within.

Stop fighting others. Stop engaging with the algorithm-enhanced polarity.

Build the New, give no attention to the old.

And use this framework to help direct your energy.

You do not need to agree with all of the above. But do engage.

Actively participate in shaping the future.

Direct your energy, your attention, your money with intentional attention.

Reframe disruption as opportunity.

Decisions today will matter for decades.

The New System and its foundational Policies are an ‘uncarved block’ — for us to now collectively shape.

En-semble the ‘best’ ideas of the East + West.

Time to Build.

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Disclosures

This commentary has been prepared by AquaVis Advisors LLC (“AquaVis”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does it constitute investment advice or a recommendation to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, AquaVis makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

Any opinions or estimates expressed reflect personal views as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider this material as only one input in their decision-making process and should obtain independent financial, legal, and tax advice before making any investment decisions.

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The prior two Cold War 2.0 updates — US & China - A Brief Update on Cold War 2.0 and US & China - Important Perspective on Cold War 2.0 — set the stage for this piece. Check them out for context and to follow the progression and related forecasts.

This 2-part piece helps tie up some loose ends, further explores how the US has begun to respond — at the foundational System level and across each Pillar of Power. And sets the stage for what’s likely coming next…

We are in the midst of the compressed time (‘weeks’) where massive System change (‘decades’) happen.

For decades, the water you are swimming in — and often unaware of — barely changes, with linear adjustments at the margin.

Then, ‘all of a sudden’ everything changes nonlinearly.

This is what Lenin is referring to. This is a 4th turning and confluence of cycles. And this is happening now. — AquaVis Note

THE BACKDROP

Quickly re-highlighting the old System’s exploit — how we got here.

After the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis, China recognized they could not overtly challenge the hegemon — the US. The US was simply too dominant across all of the Pillars of Power at it’s respective Golden Age Peak in the 1990s.

An overall powerful virtuous feedback loop that ultimately left the US in the strongest position in the 20th century, and likely in its History.

Overall, the 1990s ‘felt’ like a Golden Age for the US because the 1990s were a Golden Age for the US, and generally the World.

Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny - Part I

So, they began seeking alternative methods — if you cannot defeat someone in their own game, can you change it? Can you alter the flow to work for you, instead of against you?

Adversaries systematically analyzed, infiltrated, and exploited the old System — subverting the System itself and re-directing its Power flows to empower themselves at the expense of the original architect (the US). Paired with the ‘elites’ they co-opted, they have kept the populace asleep and distracted for decades.

A well constructed plan — recognizing that dividing the US from within was the only way to eventually build up enough relative Power to challenge the unequivocal hegemon.

Adversaries have been exposing these System vulnerabilities for decades.

First quietly and covertly — slowly degrading the US’ relative Power:

• Psychological warfare — inserting the extreme ‘woke’ mindset into education, media, and beyond to manipulate the minds of the populace — notably the young/impressionable

• Media warfare — subversion of open platforms, from the Internet to Social Media, to proliferate false narratives, sow distrust, and drive internal polarization — promoting polarity while suppressing balanced, constructive discourse

• Network warfare — control and co-opt key chokepoints, notably unelected, unaccountable but powerful centralized control positions — like the Federal Reserve Chair (example)

• Drug warfare — the fentanyl crisis in the US, dis-abling the Productive Labor Force — analogous to the opium wars

• Narrative warfare — promoting anti-nuclear and ESG narratives to attempt to subvert the Energy Pillar

• Production warfare — systematically shifting Intellectual Property, Productive Capacity and the related Labor out of the US, and into China

• Cyber warfare — systematically testing and exploiting digital vulnerabilities

• Innovation warfare — stifling progress around science — from Energy-related (cold fusion) to Technology and beyond

• Border warfare — exploiting open borders to ‘insert’ dangerous ‘illegals,’ creating chaos within and forcing a response in budget expansion to address — directly degrading the Money Pillar

• Legal warfare — corrupting the Judicial system, altering foundational laws that systematically weaken the System

• Education warfare — infiltrating and subverting Universities and related research

• Among many, many other examples and vectors…

Then more loudly and overtly — as the relative Power balance began to shift:

• Proxy military warfare — supplying intelligence, weapons, and resources to Russia against Ukraine, Iran against Israel to begin to deplete the US/West resources and spread the hegemon thin — knowing that the US/West Critical Product Productive Capacity is degraded (Production warfare above)

• Resource warfare — weaponize control of foundational resources like rare earth mineral processing

• Infrastructure warfare — from the severing of critical communication cables, to the destruction of key trade and transportation infrastructure

• Chaos warfare — stoking chaos, knowing that the hegemon needs to expend resources (energy) to maintain the structure of order

While this may sound like ‘conspiracy’ to some, China literally laid this all out in a 1999 book entitled Unrestricted Warfare, written by two PLA colonels:

“[The book’s] primary concern is how a nation such as China can defeat a technologically superior opponent (such as the United States) through a variety of means”

The above list I provided was actually largely provided by them. So yeah, they’ve thought about this. And clearly have been executing against it — weakening the US’ Pillars of Power while strengthening their own.

To be very clear, this is not at all to say US/West leadership is not responsible. They enabled all of this. The worst multi-decade stretch in leadership in US History.

It’s as if they — the leaders in the US/West — were aligned with adversaries. Increasingly, it looks like many were…

They managed to blow the biggest lead of potentially any ‘empire’ in History, horribly failing all three (3) of their core Duties:

Even when it became painfully obvious their Policies and Decisions were destroying the US, it’s Productive Labor Force and it’s Pillars of Power and strengthening adversaries…

From the Golden Age of the 1990s to the unsustainably imbalanced System of today. A stark contrast.

Adversaries systematically exposed the openness of the West. For every point of openness in the West — from the Internet to borders to capital flows — China (along with Russia/Iran/North Korea) ensure a respective closed and controlled ‘chokepoint.’

Don’t you find it ‘odd’ TikTok is banned in China?

Part of the genius of the adversary exploitation strategy was harnessing the natural flows:

• of the System - designed after WWII to systematically ship Production out of the US to the Rest of the World

So this Post WWII System was literally designed to Re-Balance the System peacefully – by reducing US Production (which reached relative extremes; pendulum too far) and shifting it to the Rest of the World, while increasing US Consumption to buy those Products (produced by the Rest of the World) to ultimately fund further Rest of the World Production expansion – and it worked…

Tariffs (Part II)

• of human nature - playing on short-term greed and fear, pleasure and hubris — notably of the systematically identified and co-opted unelected, unaccountable elite with significant centralized power (example)

Ultimately, using these natural flows, adversaries subverted the old System and co-opted many in power to work for them — re-directing the flows to strengthen themselves at the expense of the US.

Another element of the genius behind the exploitation strategy was how ‘quiet’ it was and seemingly still is.

So quiet, many are still asleep.

Intentionally quiet to suppress the natural response.

In a naturally flowing System there would be a response to a ‘foreign’ stimulus.

Think of a simple anti-virus program on a computer or the immune system in your body — normally responding to remove the ‘virus’ and re-balance the System.

In this case, the System was infiltrated and exploited, but there was no natural response because most were not even aware of the ‘virus.’

Un-aware — whether lulled asleep, lured by greed, and/or blinded by hubris.

Media and the downstream public were ‘trained’ to view China as weak — just a place of ‘cheap trinket’ production.

Many in power positions were co-opted via money and/or more power.

While ‘self-correcting’ System feedback mechanisms were systematically broken to ensure no re-balancing response.

Again, a well-executed holistic strategy in the ‘Great Game.’ I’d recommend reading The Art of War and the Tao te Ching to understand the broader tactics and the related mindset — which I, in fact, quite like. Combining the ‘best’ of the East + West is my own preferred path — a topic for another time.

Continuing down that ‘Eastern’ path of thinking, the dialectic process reveals that two opposites compose an interdependent whole.

A worthy adversary makes you stronger. Challenging you, forcing you to adapt and to build resilience. For balance and progress, you need both yin and yang, dark and light, chaos and order.

Without an adversary, you’d become weak and complacent, rigid and fragile. Sound familiar?

Re-frame the challenge as an opportunity for growth.

But it’s important to wake up and recognize you are being challenged.

THE TRANSITION

Over the last year+, the US has begun waking up.

Starting with Tariffs as a multi-purposed wake up call: the old System is unsustainably imbalanced, systematically destroying the US and strengthening adversaries; all covered here. This got everyone to the table to discuss a New System.

Paired with Policies to re-build from the foundation, focused on the Pillars of Power — from the OBBBA, to America’s AI Action Plan (Technology), to Unleashing US Energy Dominance (Energy), to the Genius Act around stablecoins (Money) and more all covered in this piece. This re-directed the internal flows toward strengthening the US and its Pillars.

Followed by deals with countries around the world, notably the US/Middle East deals— which kicked off as a template for the New System, revolving directly around the Pillars of Power; covered here. This re-directed the external flows toward strengthening the US and members of the New System.

And a parallel deep focus on chokepoints — starting with the Panama Canal — and critical emerging spheres — from the Arctic (notably Greenland) to Space. This re-directed energy flows toward significant areas of rising importance with asymmetric leverage.

With the foundational architecture in place, execution of the external agenda followed — from Greenland and the Golden Dome (in process), to Venezuela and Monroe Doctrine 2.0, to now Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Kharg is still on the table. Cuba is in process. The Strait of Malacca is in focus. Flows are now focused on external expansion on top of the new foundation.

All the while, the Technology Race is The Race for control over the Global World Order. The Policies noted above are beginning to bear fruit — from record AI Capex to the subsequent launch of Mythos, to the acceleration of Critical Product Production reshoring. With the under-followed Genesis Mission layered on top to help accelerate innovation ideally enabling abundance. Flows are now focused on the internal expansion on top of the new foundation.

At many interconnected levels, both the stock (e.g., resources) and flow (e.g., trade and chokepoints) are being re-asserted and re-directed.

Every component of this sequence was laid out in detail over the last year: Content User Guide.

2025 set the foundation. 2026 is the expansion.

Context and sequencing matter a lot.

Try to build a house starting with the roof. Probably not going to work out.

You would not build a New System without the awareness of the subversion of the old.

You could not build a New System without discussions with members of the old.

You should not build a New System without addressing foundational issues of the old.

Woulda coulda shoulda. Time for agency.

Tariffs were the multi-purposed ‘tool’ to begin the re-building and re-balancing process.

Many get lost in the labels and the noise.

Most look at discrete points (trees) and miss the broader wave (forest) — where you are coming from matters a lot.

And if you understand where you’ve come from and where you are, it’s a lot easier to forecast where you’re likely going.

Every thing is a wave.

I’ve been writing about the context and sequence for over a year — forecasting what is likely to come. There is a reason I was able to predict a lot of this and contextualize events as they happened. Awareness of where you are in the waves and an understanding of the objectives allows you to ‘see’ the bigger picture. It certainly does not mean you will get everything right. But the Pillars of Power framework keeps you organized amidst the dis-order and noise.

The current US Admin’s strategy of external chaos ‘concealing’ internal order is intentional.

Similar to how adversaries worked hard to ensure everyone was un-aware of what was going on under the surface as they quietly built up strength, the current US admin is doing something similar — ‘flooding the zone’ and ‘projecting’ chaos, keeping adversaries (and others) off-balance amidst the change. This guide walks through all of the pieces and connects the underlying dots that most seem to dismiss as nonsense.

Along those lines of ‘flipping the playbook,’ rather than playing the old game in the old System by the old rules — they changed the game.

Adversaries — China and the like — subverted the old System to re-direct the flows to strengthen themselves and weaken the US/West.

Two can play at that ‘game.’

Why would the architect (US) of the old System continue to defend a System that directly destroys it?

End the old System, end those flows.

Build the New System, re-direct those flows.

Instead of linearly ‘defending’ the old System that systematically weakened the US/West and strengthened adversaries, they non-linearly changed the game.

Architecting a New System focused on leveraging the US’ strengths, while exposing the adversaries weaknesses. Strengthening the US’ Pillars of Power as well as those who choose to join the New System and play by the new rules. Shifting back toward a non-zero-sum growth mindset, away from the zero-sum scarcity mindset.

The old System is dead. The New System is emerging. The transition is coming.

Let’s delve into all of this through the Pillars of Power lens…

Part II coming soon

N.B. (1) China and adversaries capitalized on opportunities via their own self-interests; don’t necessarily agree with it, but also see this trend throughout all of History.

N.B. (2) Recognizing trends and decisions does not necessarily mean endorsing them; though I do agree with the broader direction of the US Policies (not all), these pieces are meant to focus on the world the way it is.

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Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

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Short notes: Substack notes

Videos & Podcasts: YouTube

Tweets: X

Website: AquaVis

Disclosures

This commentary has been prepared by AquaVis Advisors LLC (“AquaVis”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does it constitute investment advice or a recommendation to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, AquaVis makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

Any opinions or estimates expressed reflect personal views as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider this material as only one input in their decision-making process and should obtain independent financial, legal, and tax advice before making any investment decisions.

Investing in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and may be affected by changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, credit conditions, and the price or volatility of underlying assets. Certain investments may be speculative and are not suitable for all investors.

AquaVis may, from time to time, have long or short positions in securities or other financial instruments mentioned and may transact in such instruments without further notice.

Today, the external noise — meant to distract, complicate, and confuse — has been turned up, as the old System declines and the New System begins to emerge. Now more than ever, it’s critical to turn off the noise and go within — to intentionally and independently assess the situation.

Media is corrupted. Markets are compromised. Mindset is the way.

The time for unquestioned assumptions and blind passivity is over. The time for intentional attention is here. The point is not necessarily what you choose, it is that you choose.

Direct your attention, your mind, your money — or it will be directed for you.

Explore the deep-dive via the companion materials below. Each piece of media below - from the videos to the audio to the infographic - is unique, but all are entirely based upon the ‘centerpiece’ deep-dive article.

Deep-Dive Article:

Cinematic Video:

Explainer Video:

Audio Podcast:

Infographic:

Slide Deck:

Media Markets & Mindset

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Thread (X):

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Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

Deep-dives: Substack

Short notes: Substack notes

Videos & Podcasts: YouTube

Tweets: X

Website: AquaVis

Disclosures

This commentary has been prepared by AquaVis Advisors LLC (“AquaVis”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does it constitute investment advice or a recommendation to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, AquaVis makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

Any opinions or estimates expressed reflect personal views as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider this material as only one input in their decision-making process and should obtain independent financial, legal, and tax advice before making any investment decisions.

Investing in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and may be affected by changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, credit conditions, and the price or volatility of underlying assets. Certain investments may be speculative and are not suitable for all investors.

AquaVis may, from time to time, have long or short positions in securities or other financial instruments mentioned and may transact in such instruments without further notice.

This is a timely piece given the confluence of waves converging and non-linear shifts currently happening. Check it out and use the variety of materials below to further explore. Now is a time to pay intentional attention, notably to how you allocate capital.

Each piece of media below - from the videos to the audio to the infographic - is unique, but all are entirely based upon the ‘centerpiece’ deep-dive article.

Deep-Dive Article:

Cinematic Video:

Explainer Video:

Audio Podcast:

Infographic:

Slide Deck(s):

Pillars Of Power Portfolio

10.5MB ∙ PDF file

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Pillars Of Power Portfolio

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A thread of Pillars of Power portfolio pieces…

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Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

Deep-dives: Substack

Short notes: Substack notes

Videos & Podcasts: YouTube

Tweets: X

Website: AquaVis

Disclosures

This commentary has been prepared by AquaVis Advisors LLC (“AquaVis”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does it constitute investment advice or a recommendation to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, AquaVis makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

Any opinions or estimates expressed reflect personal views as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider this material as only one input in their decision-making process and should obtain independent financial, legal, and tax advice before making any investment decisions.

Investing in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and may be affected by changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, credit conditions, and the price or volatility of underlying assets. Certain investments may be speculative and are not suitable for all investors.

AquaVis may, from time to time, have long or short positions in securities or other financial instruments mentioned and may transact in such instruments without further notice.

The Pillars of Power appear simple. But the construction has taken decades.

And even longer when you consider all of the time and energy that went into the ‘resources’ required to build it.

We spend a lot of time curating the best thinkers in their respective fields, delving deeply into their research, thought processes, and track records, and ultimately adapting our learnings into our own framework — bundling the unbundled. We are not experts in each field, but by listening and utilizing this curation process, we can ‘stand on the shoulders of giants’ — using each as a building block to raise our awareness and understanding of the system. — Framework

That’s the beauty of progress. It compounds. Once verified from first-principles, you can keep building upon the foundations laid by predecessors — standing on the shoulders of giants, enabling higher highs and higher lows. Every thing is a wave, ideally upward sloping.

Over the past year of publicly publishing, the Pillars of Power have proven to be a useful foundational Framework:

• A lens for intent — in a world of lies.

• A filter for signal — in a world of noise.

• A compass to connect the dots — in a world of chaos.

• A structure for clarity — in a world of complexity.

• A tool for order — in a world of dis-order.

Simply, simplifying.

A way to understand the World and key Decisions across time.

But the Pillars also double as a portfolio.

In fact, that’s how The Pillars were born. From a single pursuit: building a sustainable portfolio that could endure the test of time — especially periods of chaos and dis-order, like 4th Turnings.

In studying history, we recognized the Pillars of geostrategic Power are consistent across time:

• Asymmetric Technology

• Powered by low-cost and abundant Energy

• Financed by fully-controlled Money

The hegemon(s) who leads in these three key spheres controls the World Order.

The collective, self-reinforcing Pillars of Power have stood the test of time. And they provide a consistent framework for understanding the World and the decisions that shape it — with the lust for Power as an underlying driving force.

Never has this been more relevant than today. The World System is in flux. We are at the confluence of multiple converging cycles (Backdrop) driving an acceleration in change, noise, and disorder. — The Pillars of Power - An Introduction

Just as the Pillars help order your mind and direct your attention, they also help you harness your money. The same discipline across forms of energy:

• Your Mind: Accumulated, stored immaterial energy.

• Your Attention: Flowing energy.

• Your Money: Accumulated, stored material energy.

The entire process is designed around understanding and harnessing the stock and flow of energy — The Way of AquaVis.

AquaVís - /ˈɑː.kwə viːs/ - ‘natural force or power of water’ … follow the flow — About

Flowing water — like a river — is an observable visual of energy flowing in Nature. And just like Nature, the world of geopolitics and the stock market are natural systems. Complex adaptive systems that can be understood through the lens of Nature and its observable principles. Money flows through the stock market like water flows through a river.

Nature has been doing this a lot longer than us. We observe, listen, and learn. And apply Nature-inspired principles, concepts, and designs to help solve ‘real-world’ problems. — About

The framework creates ‘structure’ for the flow — from organization, to direction, to action.

Order Your Mind Build the lens. Without a clear framework, you are vulnerable to the noise and chaos of the world.

⌄

Direct Your Attention Control the flow. Once your mind is ordered, you dictate where your active flowing energy goes, rather than having it ‘stolen’ by distractions.

⌄

Harness Your Money Command the reserve. With your mind sharp and your attention focused, you can effectively deploy your stored energy to build and protect your assets.

⌄

Shape Your Future Own the outcome. When your internal clarity, active flowing energy, and stored capital are aligned, you stop re-acting to the world’s design and start building your own.

The 6 A’s Flywheel is an even ‘simpler’ way to visualize the energy flow:

• Awareness: See the world the way it is.

• Attention: Focus your flowing energy.

• Agency: Recognize your power.

• Action: Move intentionally.

• Accountability: Own the result.

• Actualization: Shape the future.

THE PILLARS OF POWER PORTFOLIO

Back to the Portfolio angle…

The Pillars of Power have stood the test of time, and so has a related portfolio — it works because it is always where the hegemons are focused throughout History. That’s how the framework was built — studying History from first-principles through the lens of foundational incentives.

Hegemons change, the System changes, but the underlying Pillars remain — intricately interconnected and self-reinforcing:

And some - like - are beginning to recognize it’s power as a portfolio:

Almost there…

Using this ‘simplistic’ equal-weighted version of the Pillars of Power:

• Technology - XLK - [Technology Sector ETF]

• Energy - XLE - [Energy Sector ETF]

• Money - GLD - [Gold ETF]

You get a naturally balanced portfolio that dramatically outperforms the market [SPY] over time. And even more so using an incredibly simple re-balancing trigger.

The simple, highly liquid 3-position portfolio re-balanced 4 times in ~21 years — as indicated by the yellow highlighted rows above.

And the output is pretty astonishing:

$1,000 invested in SPY in January 2005 would have grown to ~$7,800 today, while $1,000 invested in this portfolio would have grown to ~$17,700 — more than 2x the return of the market.

This simple version of the Pillars of Power portfolio outperforms SPY across essentially every metric. Most notably cumulative total return, which is my primary focus — I view volatility as opportunity, not risk; a topic for an upcoming piece.

Of course there are many caveats. This is for educational purposes to simply highlight the power of the Pillars of Power as a portfolio.

• The starting point (January 2005) was chosen because GLD launched at the end of 2004, and I wanted to ensure the the portfolio represented simple, liquid access for everyone.

• The ETFs were chosen because they are the most liquid, highly accessible representations of each of the respective Pillars of Power (and John chose them, not me)

• The equal-weighting starting point of the positions was chosen because it is the simplest (and, again, John chose that, not me).

• The re-balancing trigger was simply created to avoid extreme concentration — it only triggers 4x in over 20 years. So in 20 years, you only have to actively do anything 4x.

• Dividends were reinvested. No taxes or transaction costs were considered in the example — with only 4 re-balancing triggers, they are de minimis anyways.

The list goes on. Again, everything was chosen for max simplicity. This is not some hyper-optimized backtest (n.b., you’ll never see a bad backtest). A proper one would use Monte Carlo simulation across starting points, sizing, triggers and a whole lot more…

This is not that.

This is simply to highlight the foundation off of which to build.

This is to show how powerful an extraordinarily simple version of the Pillars of Power portfolio can be.

This is to highlight a basic ‘market’ alternative at a time when the market itself has never been more risky.

And this is so easy a cat (unlike Larry, I don’t have one) could implement it.

The exercise was pulled forward by the ‘simple’ post by on X, noted above. I was planning to publish more on this ‘application layer’ in a few months — as some legacy limitations go away — but carpe diem.

And, given the ongoing Concentration Cascade — which I’ve written extensively about, publishing near the exact day of the latest high — time is of the essence.

So, not only are most index funds (S&P 500, Nasdaq, etc.) concentrated bets on ~10 companies — not the ‘marketed’ diversified baskets of hundreds of companies (The Diversification Illusion).

But, in fact, these indices (and related ETFs) are concentrated bets on the AI Infrastructure cycle in the US which is highly dependent upon a single chokepoint: TSMC in Taiwan. Yes, the Taiwan that is right next to China — which we have written extensively about.

— Stock Market Fractal: The Concentration Cascade & The Diversification Illusion

The intricately laid out Cascade has begun… cascading. As an example, Oracle’s stock price (ORCL) is down over ~50% in the last few months, while it’s CDS (~risk of default) is up over 4x.

As I’ve repeatedly highlighted, now is the time to pay intentional attention.

Both the stock market allocation mechanism and the resultant stock market composition are more important than ever to understand. Today there is what I call the Concentration Cascade — concentration and inherent fragility at every layer, notably within the control and composition of US indices. These two pieces — Stock Market Ownership & Control and Stock Market Composition — provide a simple walk through of both the stock market allocation mechanism and the resultant composition — highly recommended reading. Outsourcing your attention, your thinking, and/or your capital allocation without this foundational awareness is dangerous. The time for unquestioned assumptions and blind passivity is over. — Media, Markets, & Mindset

And highlighted the likely trigger(s) to be aware of. I expect more will come...

BUILDING OFF OF THE FOUNDATION

So the Pillars of Power 'framework’ serves multiple purposes, one of which is a portfolio template.

The above example is an awesome, simple starting point — a foundation off of which to build.

And there is beauty in simplicity. When intuition and evidence align, confidence grows.

The opportunity, and what I’ve been focused on for a long time, is continuing to build upon the simplicity.

Not to over-complicate, but to continue refining to expand and progress.

There are many vectors of ‘optimization’ opportunity — from sub-sector and stock selection beneath the sector ‘surface,’ to more sophisticated re-balancing triggers and sizing, to macro overlays, tail strategies, and a lot more.

For example, the above portfolio stops at the top of the funnel. I focus on following the flow to the bottom. Finding the purest asymmetric expression of the allocation intention — convexity is king.

Let’s work from the top down for the Technology Pillar example:

• So, rather than simply allocating to the US-centric XLK for Technology, maybe you believe Semiconductors (SMH) are a better representation of what you want to express because of your view of the current Technology cycle (Technology Wave).

• And beneath that, everyone needs to re-shore for resilience (De-Globalization & Supply Chain Wave) and you need more Semiconductors — so maybe Semiconductor Capital Equipment is an even purer expression.

• But what about within the Semiconductor Capital Equipment realm — shouldn’t Advanced Packaging exposed companies grow even faster than the underlying market because of ‘traditional’ Moore’s Law physical limitations (Semiconductor Scaling & Technology Wave) and the growing trend of going ‘vertical’?

• Who sits at the bottom of that funnel, at the confluence of all of the waves and trends — Onto Innovation (ONTO) pops up as a candidate.

And you can keep drilling further to see if ONTO meets key industry (e.g., growing faster than market?), company (e.g., does management have skin in the game? durable advantages?), and stock (e.g., what is the valuation and the KPI that drives it?) criteria to justify a position — one of many further vetting layers.

These are all parallel processes that certainly add complexity along the way. But the opportunity is to streamline once again to simplify the process and output. Bundling and un-bundling. A systematic checklist of sorts. This is where I spend a lot of my time. And will publish more on going forward.

And you can do that exact exercise within each of the Pillars.

The Pillars provide the framework. You choose how to fill it out.

This is just touching the surface, I take it many layers deeper — utilizing the framework from both the top-down, and the bottom-up. Finding ideas that sit at the Confluence of multiple cycles, at the bottom of multiple filters, and at the intersection of the Venn Diagram. The various process ‘streams’ all flow together to form the Confluence — hence the name of the strategy.

Again, in my view every thing is a wave.

While I’m aware of the shorter-form waves — from days to months — that is not where I choose to spend my time and energy, my intentional attention.

In general, I’m focused on the longer-form waves — years to decades — to help ensure I get the big things, the massive flows of energy, right — like foundational System shifts, Technological Revolutions, and more.

Understanding where we are on each wave — from Technology, to Demographics, to Empires and more — is critically important for both perspective and to make sure you are focused on where the energy is flowing, where the pendulum is swinging — flow with the river, not against it.

Particularly at a point in time as unique as today.

The 4th Turning — ‘created’ by — is really a confluence of multiple waves (cycles), adding to its overall energy and power. With all of these cycles converging, pendulums swinging, and the foundational System changing — now is a time to pay intentional attention.

This wave mapping paired with the Pillars of Power framework helps keep me organized. And helps me internally direct my energy — attention, capital, or otherwise — toward the big opportunities: the Confluence, where all the rivers, or flows of energy, meet.

MINDSET MATTERS

With many of the external sources (media) and evaluation mechanisms (markets) compromised and/or degraded, it is best to begin with the internal.

Sounds fluffy. But, when you step away from the noise (#Nature), your inner intuition is powerful. There is a reason why ‘you know it when you see it,’ why when you hear something and it resonates you ‘know’ it’s true, why ‘the smell test’ often works as a useful filter. It is difficult (impossible?) to fake authenticity.

— Media, Markets, & Mindset

I’ll walk through these layers in more detail in upcoming process-focused pieces.

But the general point is this framework helps both create internal order — to avoid being ‘whipped around’ by the external chaos — and organized preparation — so you are ready to intentionally act.

And in parallel, the curation of vetted, aligned external sources is important.

We spend a lot of time curating the best thinkers in their respective fields, delving deeply into their research, thought processes, and track records, and ultimately adapting our learnings into our own framework — bundling the unbundled. We are not experts in each field, but by listening and utilizing this curation process, we can ‘stand on the shoulders of giants’ — using each as a building block to raise our awareness and understanding of the system.

For example, while I generally spend most of my energy on the longer-form waves. It is absolutely important to zoom in and out — to pinpoint where you are across time scales on the different waves. And in investing, it’s even more important to understand your own time horizon and align your expectations and investments accordingly.

• is excellent on this front.

Another example, while I have deep experience in the Technology sphere, notably Semiconductors, I have not spent as much time at the bottom of the filter within the Money Pillar — delving into the intricacies of precious metals exploration and mining companies.

• is a great resource here.

The list goes on. From on the Liquidity mapping side, to on the Semiconductor technical specifics, to on what the stock charts are ‘saying.’

These high quality, vetted and trusted resources all plug into the Pillars of Power framework — leveraging their specialized curated knowledge, while enabling me to focus my attention and resources on the ‘big’ things.

And all of this can be as simple or as complex as you choose.

THE PILLARS OF POWER — CREATION & INFLECTION

The power of the Pillars of Power as a portfolio is not happenstance.

The Pillars of Power were created as a result of the search for a durable portfolio that works across History.

In studying markets, History and hegemonic cycles with a first-principles, incentives-focused lens, these Pillars — Technology, Energy, & Money — kept popping up. At first in an overly complicated ‘hazy’ way, but eventually distilled into a simpler, clearer framework.

Constructs like the 60/40 portfolio or thoughtless target-date funds are ephemeral at best, and generally counter-productive. Aberrations for a small slice of history. Simplistic outputs designed for asset gathering and fee generation, not absolute returns.

Those ‘strategies’ may have worked for a time. But they certainly do not work across time. They are linearly optimized for a System that no longer exists. They are rigid, fragile, and static, not resilient, adaptable, and dynamic — like a Natural System. There is a reason Nature and it’s principles sit at the foundation of my focus — biomimicry-inspired strategies and analyses.

Just as the Fed is operating backwards, seeking to preserve the old System that is ending. These linearly optimized constructs in Sharpe World are built for a period that no longer exists.

In fact, it never really naturally ‘existed’ — they just made sure to print money to preserve the illusion of it’s existence and their related ‘power.’

And those designing and funneling your money into these ‘constructs’ do not have your best interests in mind — incentives are not aligned. If you or someone you know is still allocating in this un-natural or ‘outdated’ way, I’d recommend checking out a report, a podcast, or this piece.

And all of this goes a lot deeper within the financial — Money creating and allocating — world. I spent a lot of time on this in the Stock Market Ownership & Control fractal — delving into the mechanisms that actually drive markets ( a go-to here), along with the downstream implications.

Private Equity is another ‘aberration’ — it has evolved into a volatility-laundering strategy that worked incredibly well while interest rates went straight down (1981 through 2020) and capital was printed to bail out capital (QE infinity).

Now we have more PE shops than McDonalds in the US. Top anyone?

And this ‘warning’ also applies to many of the underlying market assumptions:

These ‘assumptions’ apply to slivers of cherry-picked History, almost never take into account inflation, and generally have only been ‘tested’ on the last ~40 years of data — during one, US-led hegemonic System.

Now that System is evolving:

• Tariffs - the wake-up call, ending the old System and beginning to build the New

• New System - built in parallel over the last year, with many signposts

• Strait Closure - the beginning of the hand-off point

These publications came out well ahead of any centralized, manipulated media.

Never in our lifetimes has there been a more important time to get the big things right.

This is a live experience of what Lenin was talking about:

The water we are swimming in is changing.

We spend a lot of time thinking about the System itself — the ‘water’ everyone is swimming in and typically unaware of. And for many stretches of history, it does not ‘pay’ to be aware of the underlying System – for decades at a time it is established and linearly optimized with small adjustments. No real need to spend a lot of time/energy on it.

But for certain periods – characterized by non-linear change – it is critical to pay attention to the underlying System. To become aware of how it works, why it works that way, and how to shape it going forward.

Now is one of those times.

— Power & Pendulums (Part I)

History rhymes, it does not repeat exactly. Context and sequencing matter — particularly when undergoing phase transitions and nonlinear foundation changes.

just published a video and piece along similar lines: Investing During War and Uncertainty

The Pillars of Power framework was built with the principles of Nature to work across time, but proves particularly useful at a unique time like this:

BALANCE

Hopefully this piece provides a useful glimpse into the Pillars of Power ‘application’ layer at the portfolio level — from a super simple 3-position starting point, to a more asymmetrically-focused down-the-funnel intentional expression.

And paired with the content over the last year — notably the Pillars of Power newsletter ‘applications’ (e.g., The Arctic) — now a slightly more complete view of the power of the Pillars of Power.

• Qual-itative — the ‘intuition’ behind why the framework helps explain the world over time, with a focus on foundational incentives; helping direct your energy

• Quant-itative — the ‘science’ behind why the framework may work as a portfolio, with a focus on the balancing, self-reinforcing Pillars; helping harness your money

The process is not purely systematic or purely discretionary.

In a world of extremes, I choose balance.

My focus tends to sit at the balance point between Qualitative and Quantitative. Art and Science. Human and Machine.

Dialectics, like Yin and Yang, Dark and Light: complementary opposites, distinct yet interdependent forces that create a complete picture of reality through contrast and interaction.

Peaks and Troughs of the same wave. The more Taboo the better.

Nature seeks balance, and so do I.

None of this is perfect. And the process is never ‘complete.’

But The Pillars of Power provide useful scaffolding.

The Pillars provide the material structure (house; being), which creates the immaterial space (inner space; non-being).

The true power comes from the space that it creates, the time that it frees up. The ‘new’ energy that is able to move more fluidly and naturally.

The Pillars have proven to be a useful foundational tool for me — a structure that frees up time, space, and energy. Now the basics are available and free to use — empowerment over engagement.

And a key point in all of this is using this or any structure in preparing to act. So then you are confident in acting intentionally when the timing is right for you.

Internally driven, not externally controlled.

With rising external chaos and dis-order, it’s helpful to find a structure to help contain and order the rising entropy.

This piece provided further insight into the foundation layer.

A tier of future content will begin to focus more on building on top of the foundation, using the Pillars structure at the portfolio application layer — more inverted pyramids, optimization layers, and bottom-of-the-funnel ideas at the Confluence.

Still a few more foundational pieces and process deep-dives to go, but I’ve already begun laying out some portfolio ‘pieces’ via Notes.

If this is something you are interested in — let me know via a like, comment or otherwise. Or if you know someone who may be interested — share it.

More to come…

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Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

Deep-dives: Substack

Short notes: Substack notes

Videos & Podcasts: YouTube

Tweets: X

Website: AquaVis

Disclosures

This commentary has been prepared by AquaVis Advisors LLC (“AquaVis”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does it constitute investment advice or a recommendation to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, AquaVis makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

Any opinions or estimates expressed reflect personal views as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider this material as only one input in their decision-making process and should obtain independent financial, legal, and tax advice before making any investment decisions.

Investing in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and may be affected by changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, credit conditions, and the price or volatility of underlying assets. Certain investments may be speculative and are not suitable for all investors.

AquaVis may, from time to time, have long or short positions in securities or other financial instruments mentioned and may transact in such instruments without further notice.

Unlike many newsletters which have a short shelf life, the content thus far is designed to have a long shelf life — ideally providing enduring value well past the published date.

So, even if you’re just joining the community now, the repository of work over the last year is still highly relevant and worth checking out — hence the impetus for the guide below to help you navigate.

Most of the pieces thus far have been focused on laying the foundation for future pieces.

All of the pieces are interconnected.

Let’s walk through how.

Starting with the framework and process…

BACKGROUND, FRAMEWORK, & PROCESS

• Framework

  • A quick snapshot of the AquaVis framework to provide a look into the process

• The Pillars of Power

  • An overview of the Pillars of Power — the layer that sits right atop the baseline framework and the filter through which I view the world

• The Pillars of Power - An Introduction

  • A quick overview of the world backdrop and how everything is changing, paired with the purpose and background of AquaVis (including the 5 Ws), and some suggestions around content navigation

• About AquaVis

  • Quick background on AquaVis, from experience to principles and more — including companion materials like a podcast and video

• The Way of AquaVis

  • The flow and focus of AquaVis through the lens of the Tao — The Timeless Art of Dot Connecting

And now — using the knowledge and frameworks above — moving on to analyzing the System itself — the ‘water’ we all have been swimming in, but are generally ‘unaware’ of…

A WALK THROUGH OF THE (OLD) SYSTEM — FROM BIRTH TO DEATH

These pieces are all laid out in a logical chronological order to enable seamless dot-connecting and a clear perspective of the chain of events — sequencing matters.

The following Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny series is meant to help provide both a first-principles perspective and a lens to help understand the ‘System’ in a compressed amount of time.

Starting with it’s birth — how we got here:

• The System Series: Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny (Part I)

  • The birth and rise of the US-led System, starting post-WWII through ~2000

• The System Series: Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny (Part II)

  • The degradation and beginning of the end of the (old) US-led System, from ~2000 through 2024 — this piece and the one above are foundational, and then flow into the multiple Part III pieces below

• The System Series: Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny (Part III) - Corporates

  • A deep-dive look into the world today from the Corporate perspective — from the Financialization Flywheel favoring Capital, to the stifling of innovation to serve incumbents

• The System Series: Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny (Part III) - Stock Market Ownership & Control

  • A deep-dive look into the world today from the Stock Market ownership and control lens — from the power of passive and the related asset managers, to the root understanding of who really ‘controls’ the markets

• The System Series: Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny (Part III) - Stock Market Composition

  • A deep-dive look into the world today from the Stock Market Composition perspective — everything from the record concentration in US indices today, to the much deeper Concentration Cascade at multiple levels, from geography to Technology (AI) and more

• The System Series: Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny (Part III) - Society

  • A deep-dive look into the world today from a Societal lens — everything from why dogs now outnumber kids in the US, to the unaffordability crisis facing younger generations, to the war over your mind and attention

• The System Series: Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny - User Guide

  • This is a great, simple guide that walks through all of the pieces above. I realize my labeling can be confusing, so this is to help clarify.

• The System Series: Power & Pendulums (Part I)

  • While not part of the Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny series, this is the beginning of the next series — highlighting how those in Power manipulated the System itself to serve themselves (a great complement to Part II from D, D, & D)

So the above series walks through the end-to-end progression of the now old System — from it’s birth, to it’s rise, peak, degradation, and ultimately it’s end. Culminating with a deep-dive, multi-part ‘zoomed in’ analysis of the downstream outputs — from wealth inequality to stock market concentration to National Security vulnerabilities — we see manifesting today: The Unsustainably Imbalanced System. And a look into how those in Power pushed those pendulums to extremes — manipulating the System itself for themselves at the expense of the collective.

The above section essentially spans from 1945 through ~2025. This all flows neatly into the catalyst ending the old — unsustainably imbalanced — System and the emergence of the New…

THE END OF THE OLD SYSTEM & THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW SYSTEM

The above highlights how we got to where we are today — the very clearly unsustainably imbalanced System.

The below highlights how every thing is now changing…

• The System Series: Tariffs (Part I)

  • An overview of the unsustainably imbalanced System — flowing nicely from the Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny series — and why change is necessary

• The System Series: Tariffs (Part II)

  • A deep-dive into the true purpose(s) of Tariffs: to change the System itself, as it has consistently undermined its architect (the US and the majority within) for decades — which is why I was confident signaling the end of the old System in early 2025

This section essentially focuses on the 1H of 2025. Paired with the Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny series, the two ‘Tariffs’ pieces above provide critical end-to-end context and sequencing for how we got here, why everything must change, and a framework for where we are likely headed…

LAYING THE FOUNDATION FOR THE NEW SYSTEM

If the old System it ending, something must take it’s place — order to disorder, to order once again. Tariffs (Part II) lays out some of the foundational framework of the New System that’s being built in parallel. The below pieces delve deeper — analyzing everything from the agendas of the main competing hegemons (US & China), to the key spheres of focus, and beyond.

We are still in that interim period of dis-order — a time in between two Systems — as the US and China each attempt to strengthen their respective Pillars of Power and build leverage to ‘control’ the New World Order. But for those paying attention and connecting the dots, the building blocks are quite clear — and the Pillars of Power lens helps filter signal from noise:

• PoP: US & The Trump Agenda

  • A look into the focus of the current Trump Agenda, reshaping the US and it’s Pillars of Power

• PoP: China & The Xi Agenda

  • A look into both the history and current focus of the Xi Agenda, building a hegemon in China (paired with it’s own allies) to challenge the US in Cold War 2.0 for control over the New World Order

• PoP: US & China - Connecting the Dots

  • Tying together loose ends and relevant updates pertaining to Cold War 2.0 between the two hegemons — US & China — vying for Power and control over the Global World Order

• PoP: The Arctic & Its Rising Importance

  • A deep-dive into the importance of the Arctic (including Greenland) — a critical new sphere within Cold War 2.0 for a multitude of reasons

• PoP: Elon Musk & His Rising Importance

  • A deep-dive into the rising importance of Elon Musk and his related companies — notably from a National Security perspective from the US/West — all through the Pillars of Power lens

• PoP: The Middle East & The Emergence of a New System

  • A dive into a (very) brief history of the US/Middle East, and how the multiple US/Middle East deals in mid-2025 set the template for the New System —signaling the rising emergence of the parallel New System

• PoP: Space & The New Frontier

  • A deep-dive into Space — another critical sphere within Cold War 2.0 between the US/China (and each sides respective allies), and one that unsurprisingly includes all of the Pillars of Power

• PoP: US & The Trump Agenda - 6 Months In

  • An updated view on the Trump Agenda — everything from what was accomplished in the first 6 months, to where the focus was likely to be for the next 6 months and beyond

• PoP: US & China - A Brief Update on Cold War 2.0

  • An update on Cold War 2.0 between the US & China — taking a look at what has transpired and the respective Pillars of Power and related vulnerabilities for each side

• PoP: US & China - Important Perspective on Cold War 2.0

  • Useful background on the progression of the rise of China, and a deeper look into their Pillars of Power today

• PoP: The Multi-Decade Quiet War & The System Phase Transition (Part I)

  • This piece walks through how adversaries, co-opted elite, and greedy incumbents corrupted the old System. And how US leadership began to wake up, build a New System, and start the System ‘phase’ transition process

• PoP: The Multi-Decade Quiet War & The System Phase Transition (Part II)

  • Building off of Part I, this delves into the Trump Admin’s re-building of the US’ Pillars of Power in conjunction with architecting the New System — specifically connecting dots across the Admin’s Policies and Actions, and highlighting how the old to New System transition is here

This section essentially spans 2025 into early 2026… a lot happened, and a lot more is coming…

APPLICATION LAYERS

The foundational content above is meant to help orient you in the World — to understand the System and its flows.

The foundational framework — The Pillars of Power — is meant to help you order your mind — to better direct your attention (your flowing energy).

On top of these foundational layers, there are additional application layers — notably to help harness your money…

• The Pillars of Power Portfolio

  • The foundational Pillars of Power framework ‘doubles’ as a naturally balanced portfolio. This piece walks through how the Pillars provide the foundation off of which to build a durable portfolio — the structure, and you choose to how fill it out. More content to come here…

COMPANION PIECES, NOTES, & MINDSET

To help further explore all of the content above, with the assistance of technology, I’ve also built out companion multimedia materials for a lot of the content above (more to come). The companion materials include everything from videos, to audio podcasts, to infographics, slide decks, and X threads — all to help better understand and explore the ‘centerpiece’ core content. You can find all of the Companion materials here:

• Companion Materials

  • Companion multimedia materials - video, audio, infographic, slide deck, & thread - to help further explore our deep-dive written content (Newsletter & Whitepapers)

In addition, I often publish short Notes around key events, quick thoughts, relevant podcasts and a lot more:

• AquaVis Notes

  • Short notes often highlighting where I am directing my attention, referencing relevant pieces and related content, and/or recommending curated experts

And finally, it’s key to have perspective on where your information is coming from, notably as external sources and feedback mechanisms have been corrupted:

• Media, Markets, & Mindset

  • A lens with which to view the world — shift from relying upon mis-aligned external sources, toward the internal and internally-resonating ones

So that’s a quick overview of what’s already been published. Plenty to explore — the sooner the better, because there is more to come…

THE FUTURE

While I’m still wrapping up a few loose ends around foundational pieces, content from here will primarily be focused on the future — giving intentional attention to the New System that is taking shape. And with it, I will begin to publish ‘layers’ of actionable pieces — from higher level suggestions on where to direct attention (flowing energy), down to more detailed thoughts around capital (stored energy) — all to help better position for and shape the future.

Time to build.

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Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

Deep-dives: Substack

Short notes: Substack notes

Videos & Podcasts: YouTube

Tweets: X

Website: AquaVis

We’ve generally been ‘trained’ to look to the external for information and validation for our decisions.

But what happens when the external is corrupted via broken feedback mechanisms and/or misaligned incentives?

MEDIA IS MANIPULATED

External evaluation #1, the media: Is mainstream media a trustworthy source?

I think that’s a pretty clear no, and most seem to agree.

Notice how this is essentially a straight line down since ~2000 — right as the mindset shifted from growth toward scarcity. Right as the System began to serve the minority at the expense of the majority. We covered the details behind why in Part II of Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny and laid out the downstream impacts to Society in Part III: The Society Fractal.

Even the old (Boomers) — who the System serves at the expense of the young — have started to lose faith in the mass media.

Simply, the centralized media has been manipulated to serve the few in power at the expense of the majority. People want to be respected, and want truth — instead we’ve been lied to and gaslit. So most people are logically moving toward Substack, podcasts and other decentralized forms of media in pursuit of truth. It’s difficult to operate as a society without a shared truth. When you open mindedly hear the truth, it resonates — “I know it when I see (or hear) it.”

My view is the divide today is not right vs. left, but New vs. Old, Forward vs. Backward.

The divide today is not left right, up down, purple pink or otherwise – it is New vs. Old, Future vs. Past, Forward vs. Backward as Dr Pippa recently said. — Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny (Part II)

It is not really left vs. right, Democrat vs. Republican, or whatever flavor or label you want to throw out there. It is much simpler:

• Those who want to embrace change and build a New System that serves the majority

• Those who want to preserve the old System that now serves the minority

— Power & Pendulums (Part I)

The majority want shared truth and progress with a growth mindset — where the pie is expanding and everyone is better off. But the few are clinging to the scarcity mindset — using fear to confuse, complicate, and control — shrinking the pie and selfishly indulging in ever larger slices.

The theme of the risk of unelected, unaccountable, centralized control continues to come up across layers:

While Janet certainly did not orchestrate this on her own, the reason we spend time on her is because of her extended tenure at critical institutions controlling the Money Pillar over this period of pure of Money Pillar degradation. And because she exemplifies a multitude of issues in the broader System:

• Unelected — simply appointed to these positions

• Unaccountable — no repercussions for poor decisions; no feedback loop

• Rising Centralized Control — as the power of the Federal Reserve (and Treasury) rose over this period of USD network expansion, so did the power of this small, unelected, unaccountable group

This highlights the risk of rising centralized Decision-making with no feedback mechanism to self-regulate — poor decisions, whether mal-intentioned or not, by the few impact the many and there is no accountability. These Decisions flow all the way through the System — the ripple effects are widely visible today, and represent fractals of these foundational Policies. And this also highlights how it does not take an entire generation to be corrupted to negatively impact the System — painting the Boomers or any generation with a broad brush is not fair (not the intention of this piece).

Think about how powerful these ‘elite’ positions are and how dangerous inserting a corrupted, adversary-aligned individual into one of these seats is— this is a chokepoint, a vulnerability to the System. There is a reason most hegemonic Systems collapse due to hubris — adversaries are intelligent and systematically ‘attack’ these chokepoints (see Energy Pillar exploitation in the 1970s from Part I).

A true Natural System is built to be resilient and adaptable — no single fail points and no moral hazard; there are negative consequences for poor decisions (i.e., firing or removal), a feedback mechanism driving re-balancing and adaptation. The destruction of the feedback loop destroyed the integrity of the System — Nature was not allowed to flow.

Concentrated centralized mass media is no different. The Concentration Cascade, all the way down — self-similar fractals all stemming from the root.

While this chaos and corruption can be disorienting, all of it is common during certain periods in history. The extremity may vary, but the themes of the loss of trust in institutions, the polarity in society, the wealth divide and more are all characteristic of Fourth Turnings — ’s work on Demographics is a key input into my framework.

Studying history helps prepare and provide perspective — an awareness and a framework to help navigate the chaos. This time is unequivocally different — with unique context and sequencing — but understanding the rhythm and the rhymes removes some of the ‘surprise’ and enables proactive preparation.

The corruption and manipulation of mass media is one of those rhymes; it’s not surprising, but it is important to be aware of. Mass media as a ground source of truth and/or an independent evaluation mechanism is clearly broken.

What about the markets?

MARKETS ARE BLIND

External evaluation #2, the markets: Are markets an effective feedback mechanism?

On whether markets today should be solely or heavily used to dictate important decisions — my view is generally no, for a few reasons. Starting with mindset, over the last 25 years we’ve shifted toward scarcity and short-termism: selfish decisions driven by short-term greed over the long term impact and opportunity. This mindset shift was driven by Policies from the top. But now it’s filtered into everything — notably markets. And as a result markets are very short-term focused and not necessarily reflective of whether decisions are in the best interests of the long-term and/or the collective (in the case of a country). Simplistically, you may be chasing your tail if you just listen to short-term market perturbations. This applies at an individual level, a corporate level, and a country level.

Additionally, my view is markets do not necessarily reflect reality or the collective vote in the short-term because of the mechanisms now driving markets. Markets today are primarily driven by a thoughtless passive machine:

Passive allocation mechanism: a pro-cyclical feedback loop where every dollar of new inflow is mathematically forced to purchase stocks in exact proportion to their current market cap — regardless of valuation — effectively turning the market into a “blind” momentum machine that pushes prices higher based on flows rather than fundamentals. — Part III - Stock Market Ownership & Control

I’ve written extensively about this, but the simple point is, on the margin, there is very limited active, intentional discernment going into capital allocation in public markets. More than 100% of incremental capital going into markets is allocated via passive, and all passive does is buy the constituents of the index in proportion to the their relative size. More simply — passive just mindlessly buys whatever is largest and going up.

That puts a big ‘burden’ on the index makers — more unelected, unaccountable, centralized control and single points of failure, with questionable results. And it cascades much deeper — from concentrated stock market ownership, to concentrated stock market control and beyond.

All of this not only has massive implications for the downstream stock market composition (The Concentration Cascade), but it severely damages the market information feedback mechanism itself — hence degrading the quality of the feedback you receive from the market. The market ‘feels’ detached from the ‘real world’ because it is detached from the real world. So not only are markets overly short-term, but the quality of the feedback mechanism itself is degraded — leaving markets, and often participants, ‘blind.’ Another recurring theme of impaired feedback mechanisms breaking Systems…

Both the stock market allocation mechanism and the resultant stock market composition are more important than ever to understand. Today there is what I call the Concentration Cascade — concentration and inherent fragility at every layer, notably within the control and composition of US indices. These two pieces — Stock Market Ownership & Control and Stock Market Composition — provide a simple walk through of both the stock market allocation mechanism and the resultant composition — highly recommended reading. Outsourcing your attention, your thinking, and/or your capital allocation without this foundational awareness is dangerous. The time for unquestioned assumptions and blind passivity is over.

This does not mean markets should not be used as an input for decisions. But the awareness of how markets have changed and what most participants are incentivized toward is critical — again, Context is king. Blindly relying upon markets will lead to short-term driven decisions and tail chasing, given how the Policies from the top have transformed the mechanism over the last 25+ years. Hence, my concern on relying heavily on markets for important decisions — from strategic projects at the corporate level, to war at the sovereign level (a conversation which inspired this piece).

And yet, despite all of this, levered exposure to US equity indices is at all-time highs at exactly the most dangerous time:

As likes to say:

Know what you own. Understand the incentives. Study how the system functions.

Assumptions like ‘they are experts, they know best’ or ‘they have my best interests in mind’ should be deeply examined — from the media to markets and more. This ‘outsourcing’ and passivity may have been fine 30 years ago while the System was still being linearly optimized with marginal changes, but today every thing is changing.

Context is king.

MINDSET MATTERS

With many of the external sources (media) and evaluation mechanisms (markets) compromised and/or degraded, it is best to begin with the internal.

Sounds fluffy. But, when you step away from the noise (#Nature), your inner intuition is powerful. There is a reason why ‘you know it when you see it,’ why when you hear something and it resonates you ‘know’ it’s true, why ‘the smell test’ often works as a useful filter. It is difficult (impossible?) to fake authenticity.

Common sense has become un-common because most people are caught up in the noise — dis-connected from themselves (the internal). Media, markets, and general mayhem are meant to speed things up, create distractions — confuse, complicate, and control.

Isn’t it an amazing feeling when you slow down, step back, re-connect, and things ‘naturally’ fall into place?

If mindset could create this mess, why can’t it fix it?

To re-highlight both the power and importance of mindset, simply observe the downstream effects of the root decisions over the last 25+ years. Those in power had a marked mindset shift around 2000 away from abundance, collective, long term, and toward scarcity, self, short-term.

After decades of the old System and those in charge catering to the Boomers as they moved through the System (see Part I), now the Boomers took charge (graph above) – and they (those in power positions) chose to keep the focus on themselves – choosing the self/short-term end of the continuum. Simplistically, as Boomers became Capital, Capital was favored. Thus, the aforementioned mindset shift, away from collective, abundance, and long-term, toward selfish, scarcity, short-termism — the three S’s that underlie the mindset and Policy of the subsequent decades. — Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny (Part II)

They enacted Policies reflecting that mindset, which have flowed through, shaped, and permeated society — you see it everywhere, from day trading levered options and betting on what color tie Bob will be wearing on air, to the destruction of dating and the rise of Onlyfans.

It’s a devolution that corrupted the foundation then expanded, and now the system itself both embodies and reflects the scarcity mindset. The system itself is now fragile and rigid, instead of resilient and adaptable — all covered in detail in many of the Part III fractals, notably the piece on Society.

Needless to say, National Security priorities trump Luxury Consumption – don’t think a 0dte option holds much weight in the battlefield. Controlling Money absolutely does enable a layer of Control – it is unequivocally a Pillar of Power. But when the Money is not backed by any sustainable Physical Power – via asymmetric Technology, Productive Capacity to Build it, and Energy to Power it – it’s empty. Always work from First Principles; the Foundation. If you don’t have food, water, shelter, and safety – do you really need 15 different day trading apps for Fartcoin? Take a second (ideally more) to just think. What the Money is for. Where the Money is being allocated. Power Posturing and Deterrence are empty threats if you do not have the means (Productive Capacity) to enforce them. Where Money flows will dictate the Power Peking Order for the decades ahead – don’t expect to see another 12 dog apps get funding; do expect to see the construction of massive robotics factories. — Tariffs (Part II)

Few are aware of the ‘water,’ because they are caught up in the noise.

The degradation and corruption of both media and markets stem from the mindset shift. And thus, the solution begins with shifting the mindset again.

My point on bringing this up is, whether it’s the ongoing Middle East conflict, rising internal civil discord, or China potentially acting on Taiwan, it’s critical we fix the foundational mindset — back toward growth, collective, long-term. To reunify society, rebuild hope, and rebuild resilience. Adversaries know the only way to defeat the US is to divide the US — both internally (via polarization) and externally (via spread out conflicts). And no better way to divide the US than with a foundational narrative of a shrinking pie (scarcity) where everyone is fighting over a smaller slice — exactly what was implanted back in 2000 and has spread since. A growing pie where everyone is better off is absolutely an opportunity, but it requires a foundational mindset shift — movement along the wave, out of the trough.

From the inability to focus your attention to the inability to tolerate pain, society has become weaker partially because of this mindset shift. And adversaries have exploited and continue to exploit this fragility, weakness, and ‘learned’ comfort. Contrast provides Perspective. To appreciate success, you must experience failure; to feel hot, you must embrace cold; to know light, you must see dark. Pendulums must shift, starting with the mindset.

The way to begin to fix both the functioning mechanisms and downstream trust of media and markets starts with mindset.

Mindset sits at the foundation. Mindset is the problem and the solution. The dialectic at work.

THE PATH FORWARD

The Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny series explores how and why the System has become both imbalanced and corrupted — particularly Part II, as well as the related multiple downstream fractals captured in the multi-part Part III. And this piece explores some of the practical implications of these downstream systemic outputs.

Sources from mass media to markets are largely broken (or at the very least degraded) as effective inputs and feedback mechanisms. And, as Nature has shown, systems do not work without functioning feedback mechanisms.

The simplistic point — stop looking to the external to validate. Turn off the centralized media.

The era of unquestioned assumptions and blind passivity is over. Fully outsourcing your attention, your thinking, and/or your capital allocation is dangerous.

Few seem to recognize the most important ongoing battle of all is the battle over your mind. Your attention. Your energy.

‘Adversaries’ want you to stay asleep.

Most are still asleep – lulled into a trance by the propaganda of the East and the Short-Termism and manufactured Noise of the West.

If you do not wake up, you are sleepwalking into the Arms of Autocracy – fully handing over your Control and Freedom… in exchange for cheaper TVs – ‘let them eat flat screens.’ Tariffs are the overdue Wake Up Call.

Time to wake up.

Become aware. Go within — the internal. Follow your intuition. Listen to what resonates. And to help in that process, curate your sources.

You are the quality of your inputs. Root out the noise, the attention ‘suckers,’ the engagement machines built off of virality and addiction.

Avoid those seeking to ‘capture’ your attention, holding it hostage — seeking to control with complexity and fear.

Focus on those seeking to nourish your attention, striving for enlightenment and empowerment over mindless and often polarizing engagement.

Curate curate curate.

Engage in con-structive discourse instead of de-structive dismissal.

Enough diffusion, can-kicking, and symptom band-aiding — take accountability, fix the root.

Awareness → Understanding → Empowerment → Better Decisions → Brighter Future

Time to build.

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Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

Deep-dives: Substack

Short notes: Substack notes

Videos & Podcasts: YouTube

Tweets: X

Website: AquaVis

As a reminder, the overall series walks through the key System-level Decisions by those in power from 1945 through ~today — connecting the dots on how they shape the future and drive the downstream outputs we now see manifesting. This guide provides a simple, clear walk-through of the series.

These specific companion materials are focused on:

• Part II - The Degradation of US Hegemony & The Beginning of the End of the Post WWII System - from the marked leadership mindset shift in ~2000 to the downstream outputs like wealth inequality and National Security vulnerabilities manifesting today as a result

Each piece of media - from the video to the audio to the infographic - is unique, but all are entirely based upon the ‘centerpiece’ deep-dive article - Part II in this case. In particular, highly recommend the Audio Podcast below, which does a good job framing the material.

Explainer Video (also on YouTube):

Audio Podcast:

Infographic:

Slide Deck:

Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny (part Ii)

12.5MB ∙ PDF file

Download

Download

Thread (X):

If you enjoy the content, subscribe.

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Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

Deep-dives: Substack

Short notes: Substack notes

Videos & Podcasts: YouTube

Tweets: X

Website: AquaVis

Things are fluid as the old System collapses — highlighted a year ago; Tariffs were the opening catalyst that many misunderstood:

TARIFFS

The Purpose of the Tariffs is to accelerate changing the System itself at the Foundation (Labor & Capital). They are a catalyst injected into an imbalanced System that forces it to recalibrate (and likely rebuild). They will undoubtedly be disruptive – but they are an impermanent (in current form) means to a broader end.

Once you are truly aware of the System, you cannot ‘unsee’ it. Doing nothing is a choice not to change the current System. Tariffs take that status quo – don’t wake me up – option off the table. The boats have been burned – the only way forward is through. — Tariffs (Part I): The Unsustainably Imbalanced System & The Tariff Shock

And the New System begins to emerge — also from a year ago:

BALANCE

The Goal is a System change and massive Re-Balancing.

As highlighted in Part I, the pendulum has swung too far – Tariffs are a tool to restore Balance, exemplified by a recent Bessent speech. The old System moved so far in one direction it became fragile and rigid – the opposite of Resilient and Adaptable. As with any Natural System – inherently Balance-seeking – out of Dis-Order comes Order: a New, more Resilient and Adaptable System will emerge.

The rules of the New System will be governed by those with the most subsequent Power – determined by Leadership across the Pillars of Power: Technology, Energy, & Money. Technological Leadership, Energy Abundance, and ‘Sound’ Money are foundational for Economic and overall System Abundance. The ongoing meetings are inputs into the collective System Design.

We need Balance, not Domination. We need a Growth Mindset, not Scarcity Fearmongering. We need Non-Zero-Sum Goals, not Zero-Sum Centralized Control. The combination of Balance, Growth, and Symbiotic (Mutually Beneficial) Design drives Abundance and Prosperity. The opposite leads to scarcity and war. Choose wisely. — Tariffs (Part II): Tariffs & The Re-Balancing of the Global System

This was all observable and understandable with a proven framework. But most were caught up in the intentional Media-led noise — meant to distract and control your attention.

Do not get caught up in the Media-led noise – it’s there simply to distract you and instill Fear. They want you to talk about penguins and empty shelves because they don’t want you to have Time and Space to actually Think for yourself. Because they know that once you do, you’ll realize that the System must change.

We are not advocating for or against Tariffs or how they were rolled out. We simply seek to understand what is and why – so we can better forecast and envision the potential paths ahead.

The Rollout is Ordered Chaos – part of a larger Strategic Vision. Many have blind spots because they despise Trump – to See, you must remove your biases.

— Tariffs (Part II): Tariffs & The Re-Balancing of the Global System

It’s never been more important to provide yourself with time and space to re-connect with yourself and independently think.

THINK

“Thinking is difficult, that is why most people judge.” – Carl Jung

Tariffs are not just a call for Nation States and those in Power to Wake Up. They are also a Call to all Individuals. The Individual Experience is a Fractal of the Global Experience.

— Tariffs (Part II): Tariffs & The Re-Balancing of the Global System

I provide a framework - along with some foundational content - meant to help facilitate that process and enable empowerment. But ‘waking up’ is an individual experience.

Awareness → Understanding → Empowerment → Better Decisions → Brighter Future

To that point, I think it is worth reading a recent post by …

His well-framed wake-up-call helps further contextualize the backdrop, notably the intentional sleep-inducement:

“China looked at the lessons of 20th century great power conflict and drew the conclusion that military power alone doesn't determine outcomes, upstream industrial capacity does.

The Allies won because of overwhelming industrial might. Japan and Germany lost because they lacked critical industrial inputs. Starved of oil, they were forced into gambles that cost them the war…Japan attacking Pearl Harbor to seize the oil in the Dutch East Indies, Germany marching to the Caucasus to take the Baku oil fields. Input scarcity doesn't just weaken you. It steers your decisions. It pulls decisions away from the optimal plan and toward the necessary plan.

China learned this lesson and decided to be the one holding the chokepoints. By embedding itself so deeply into the upstream supply chains that feed American military production, a conflict would trigger Western industrial paralysis and neuter its ability to fight a long war.

But the chokehold only works if the West doesn't rectify its supply chain vulnerabilities before China is ready to move on Taiwan. So China's central strategic requirement was to delay Western recognition of the threat for as long as possible.

Thus, China's entire foreign policy posture becomes oriented around appearing non-threatening. And it works because it aligns with the economic incentives of Western elites who benefit from cheap inputs and profitable trade. The cost of denial is kept artificially low. Raising the alarm looks like paranoia or protectionism when cheap goods keep flowing and no shots are being fired.

The administration is now racing to unwind its supply chain vulnerability before the conflict window opens. But that takes years, and they face significant inertia, both domestically and among allies who remain naively blind to the risk.

China knows this. So their strategy is to keep the West sleepwalking. Which means they can’t show their hand. If China comes into direct military conflict with the US in order to defend a proxy, the West wakes up. The inertia collapses. The reshoring and remilitarization that China spent decades trying to prevent happens on an emergency timeline. But the US finally realized it could use this against them.

Since China can’t show its hand until it's ready to move on Taiwan, the US realized that it can turn China's greatest strategic asset, the pacifist disguise, into a structural trap.

They cannot take overtly aggressive action without triggering the Western industrial mobilization their entire strategy depends on preventing.

So the US can eliminate their proxies and China can’t respond without destroying the disguise.

Maduro removed. Cuba strangled. Now Iran.

Beijing must decide if defending the proxy is worth waking the West up? And the answer keeps being no.

Until China’s window to move on Taiwan opens, the pacifist posture that enabled its chokeholds constrains their response to US actions.

Everything the US is doing right now is a race to be ready before that moment arrives. Clear the proxies. Arm the allies. Break the chokeholds. And build new ones of its own.”

Source: X Tweet

To build off of his framing, some quick thoughts.

To anyone who thinks Venezuela, Iran, Greenland, etc. are just about those places or just about oil — you are missing the bigger picture. This is all about Power positioning in Cold War 2.0 between US and China. Focusing on strengthening respective Pillars of Power, exposing adversary vulnerabilities and improving leverage over critical chokepoints.

Over the last year, I’ve written extensively about this — from China & the Xi Agenda which walks through the evolution of China’s grand strategy under Xi over the decades, to US & the Trump Agenda and US & the Trump Agenda - 6 Months In which walk through the Trump Admin’s grand strategy response. Along with many other ‘building block’ pieces — like the Arctic & its Rising Importance and Space & The New Frontier — critical to understanding Cold War 2.0 and the evolving World Order. The brief piece from last week - US & China - A Brief Update on Cold War 2.0 - provided some updated context based upon recent events, including re-evaluating the respective Pillars of Power positioning of the hegemons.

Simplistically, if you want to know where to focus your time and attention (flowing energy) and/or your money (stored energy) — use the Pillars of Power lens. Focus on what the hegemons are focused on.

Delving into the China point from above, I do think the 'pacifist' veil has largely gone away at this point to anyone paying attention. The disguise was necessary while China was exploiting the old System (enabled by those in Power in the US/West) - ensuring those in Power positions in particular remained in a greed and power-induced sleep. But now China and its allies have built up enough collective power to feel comfortable challenging the US directly; from February 2025:

After years of suppression, last week Xi just hosted all of the most important Chinese Technology leaders at the Private Enterprise Symposium – symbolizing the re-endorsement of Technology and wealth accumulation by the State (Alibaba’s stock price – down ~80% during the crackdowns; already up over 75% this year). And after years of subtle under-the-radar progress, in the last ~2 years Chinese companies have begun celebrating their success and Power posturing – notably with the Huawei 7nm chip release (during US Secretary of Commerce Raimondo’s China visit), BYD’s accelerated global expansion, and the latest DeepSeek R1 release (on Trump’s inauguration day). The signal is clear: Xi is no longer afraid to challenge the US out in the open. — China & The Xi Agenda

China has been in an essentially overt war-time economy since COVID, building up key resource stocks (oil, food, copper, etc.) in preparation for this challenge. They’ve been supporting both Russia and now Iran — kinetic conflicts that stem from the source Cold War 2.0 conflict. The go/no-go window around Taiwan was always in this ~2026-2030 timeframe simply due to Demographics - China faces a cliff - and to a lesser extent Xi's age. Somewhat counterintuitively, Trump coming into power may accelerate China’s hand. They see he is doing things that actually strengthen the West, unlike his predecessors. And China, like Russia, is in a box demographically.

The Trump Admin's actions (with Tariffs as the opening catalyst) are a 180 relative to Policies over the last ~25 years (hence why many ‘elites’ in particular are so mad - they profited off of China’s rise) and are directly focused on re-asserting the US' Pillars of Power — ideally in an asymmetric way to drive deterrence (hence why the Technology Race is The Race). There are mutually beneficial non-zero-sum deals to be made - the 'Peaceful Re-Balancing' as I call it — with China increasing Consumption, the US increasing Production. But each party wants the greatest amount of leverage going into those negotiations — hence the deep current focus on strengthening respective Pillars of Power.

To the points above, most have been asleep:

Most are still asleep – lulled into a trance by the propaganda of the East and the Short-Termism and manufactured Noise of the West.

If you do not wake up, you are sleepwalking into the Arms of Autocracy – fully handing over your Control and Freedom… in exchange for cheaper TVs – ‘let them eat flat screens.’ Tariffs are the overdue Wake Up Call.

— Tariffs (Part II): Tariffs & The Re-Balancing of the Global System

While China rose:

If there was ever a sign that China was not going to play by the rules of the old System and become a beacon of democracy and ‘free market capitalism’ — as those in power had stated in their WTO/MFN China admission pitch from ~2000 — it was in the ~2012-2015 timeframe with the rise of President Xi. We lay out this rise and broadly interconnected grand strategy in detail in our China & the Xi Agenda piece — the writing has been on the wall for a long time for anyone who was listening; Xi even told you his plans.

Right as Xi took power in China, China stopped buying US Treasuries (graph above) – an implied ‘stipulation’ of System membership. Instead, China began funneling the USDs it received directly into strengthening its own Pillars of Power (covered in the China/Xi deep-dive) – notably launching the Belt & Road Initiative and Made in China 2025 Plan over this 2013-2015 window. Essentially taking USDs (paper, bits, digital money) and buying up Critical Products and building Critical Product Productive capacity (real, atoms, physical assets) — the opposite of what the US was doing.

Enabled by those in Power:

The old System and its policies were exploited by adversaries – enabled by those in power in the US. And the output was rising dependence, the weakening of US’ Pillars of Power, and the destruction of the US Productive Labor Force and Capacity – ultimately culminating into an obvious National Security concern.

Tariffs were the wake up call:

If your primary Adversary (China) solely produces Critical Products that you need to survive, does that seem sustainable and/or intelligent? Sounds like a Chokepoint – and Chokepoints on Critical Products (e.g., Rare Earth Minerals) that are key components of the Pillars of Power represent very dangerous dependencies that reduce your Control and Power. China has been playing the Long Game – exploiting the Short-Termism of the West to increase their Power and Control. Tariffs are a forced Wake Up Call to bring this into the collective awareness. And the ultimate Objective is to harness this System Re-Balancing as an opportunity – utilizing a growth mindset framework – to peacefully Re-Balance where all parties are better off: China increase Consumption, reduce Production; US increase Production, reduce Consumption.

Tariffs ended the old System a year+ ago, as I wrote extensively about at the time. There is no going back to it. The New System framework has begun to emerge — you can see the foundations in the US/Middle East deals from last year. But we are in a period of relative 'chaos' — as we unleash pent up energy that has been suppressed and building for decades. And redirect energy and attention on foundational Security essentials (i.e., Critical Product Productive Capacity).

Long-Term National Security is the undercurrent driving all of these decisions

— Tariffs (Part II): Tariffs & The Re-Balancing of the Global System

This is non-linear change; all of the linearly optimized structures over the last ~80 years are going away. In the interim, multipolarity will reign unless/until asymmetric Pillars of Power are established. Out of the disorder will eventually come Order - which will be 'created' by those who have the strongest Pillars of Power.

We live in a time of massive compressed change:

• Technology: AI is a Technological Revolution that enables a paradigm shift in Power

• Energy: Energy Independence is more critical than ever, and new sources are inflecting

• Money: Money is being revolutionized by Blockchain and Digital Technologies

If we embrace change instead of resisting it, we have the opportunity to rebuild the System better – actually harnessing these modern innovations to build a better Future.

And if you pay close attention, there are early signs of the emergence of a New System, from our US/Middle East piece from June 2025:

CONFLUENCE

The Pillars of Power are the Pillars of this arrangement and of the New System.

These deals ultimately set a template for much of what is to come. Every Nation has its own strengths and weaknesses, surpluses and deficits, to address – and all revolve around the Pillars of Power. The base structure of the New System is taking shape, and it will be centered around Free Trade and Fair Burden-sharing – ultimately, Balanced and stronger Pillars of Power.

Rather than simply funneling Money (Surplus) from Energy sales into (often) Un-Productive US Financial assets, the Middle East is now flowing that excess Money into Physical areas – Critical Product Production and Technology Infrastructure in the US and at Home. This simultaneously boosts National Security and increases Productive Capacity – non-zero sum outcomes that are foundational to the New System. And it helps ‘solve’ the significant surplus/deficit imbalances built up over decades. The seemingly disparate components of the strategic agenda are beginning to come together, manifesting the broader Vision.

The significance of signing deals with once ‘neutral’ parties (i.e., toss up between US or China alignment) should not be understated. There is a reason the Trump Admin is focused on the Middle East and India in particular – Nations with vast, complementary critical Resources that are key to get on board in the New System. Allies should (theoretically) be easier and naturally fall in line. And the outcome will be significant negotiating leverage with China.

The underlying point of many of my pieces over the last year was to wake people up to this reality. Common sense pieces to help make people aware so they can at least make informed decisions, rather than rash superficial or symptoms-focused ones often clouded by biases.

Most, understandably, have limited time — life, work, kids, etc. don’t just stop, even if the world is rapidly changing. The collection of published pieces over the last year is meant to help provide both a first-principles perspective and a framework to help understand the ‘System’ in a compressed amount of time.

Ideally to help empower, enable constructive discourse and improve decision-making. National Security + Sovereignty sit at the foundation of everything — enabling your ability to choose. Without it, little else matters.

You certainly do not have to agree with everything — it is a perspective. But hopefully it provides fuel for actively thinking instead of passively judging. A guide for intentional attention on what matters.

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Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

The simplistic summary is everything boils down to Technology, Energy, & Money — for any hegemon to assert control over the world order, they must lead in these areas (typically asymmetrically to enable deterrence). Knowing this alone helps to better direct your time, attention, and energy on things that matter — a filter for the noise.

The Pillars of Power framework acts not only as a lens to better understand the world — the focus of most of the content thus far — but also doubles as a naturally balancing portfolio — something I plan to roll out in more detail soon.

Today, everything is deeply interconnected and increasingly both fragile and rigid, rather than resilient and adaptable — like an ideal, Naturally flowing System would be. In my view, given Nature has been designing for billions of years, it provides the ideal design template; hence why biomimicry sits at the foundation of the framework.

The unsustainably imbalanced System we have today is a direct output of Policies from the top over the last 25+ years. I covered this in detail in the Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny series to help frame the progression of how we got to where we currently are.

With saying that, the US is still powerful — just not as asymmetrically as it was after WWII. China, paired with Russia/Iran/North Korea are a formidable force — hence their ‘comfort’ in challenging the current hegemon.

Quickly looking at the US’ Pillars of Power:

• Energy - unlike most prior periods, the US is now Energy in-dependent — a significant positive for the US, notably relative to China who is Energy dependent. This is particularly important in the context of the US’ recent actions in Venezuela, Iran, and around the Russian shadow fleet — as the US seeks to increase it’s relative leverage over the Energy chokepoint. has noted a ~similar view. I believe all of these aforementioned spheres have a larger purpose beyond Energy as well; more to come.

  • I covered this in further detail in several pieces, notably US & The Trump Agenda, China & The Xi Agenda, and The Middle East & The Emergence of a New System.

    

• Money - but also unlike prior periods, the US now has a much weaker Money Pillar — after decades of unproductive Capital allocation, partially reflected in Debt/GDP at 120%+, there is less flexibility and wiggle room, as Michael Howell has also pointed out. This was covered in detail in Part II of Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny, notably at the end. I believe this is beginning to change with the adjustments in both the size of the fiscal deficit (shrinking, on the margin), as well as where those government expenditures are now flowing (Defense, on the margin). Further, the introduction of stablecoins by the US will provide an incremental financing lever and layer of control — highlighted by and mentioned in several notes, but I will release a full Mar-a-Lago Accord ‘checklist’ soon.

  • I covered this in further detail in several pieces, notably Tariffs (Part I) - The Unsustainably Imbalanced System, Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny (Part II), and the US & The Trump Agenda.

• Technology - the US is a leader, but no longer the uncontested leader. As Xi very clearly laid out and signaled over the years, China has generally caught up — enabled by Policies from the top in the US/West — so the advantage is no longer asymmetric. As a quick example, when I say asymmetric, I’m referring to a gun versus a knife or a car versus a horse — a nonlinear advantage. Today, the lead in AI (Technology) is not currently asymmetric — hence the ongoing hot wars rather than broader Peace and deterrence. This is why the Technology Race is The Race — the ‘winner’ likely writes the rules of the New System. For now, the major chokepoints to watch are semiconductor capital equipment (US/West-controlled) and critical mineral processing (China-controlled) — levers on either side. Additionally, the generally overlooked Genesis Mission in the US is, in my view, an accelerated focus on developing and deploying asymmetric Technologies.

  • I covered this in further detail in several pieces, notably US & The Trump Agenda, China & The Xi Agenda, and Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny (Part II)

Like with every analysis, both context and sequencing are key in my view. History rhymes, it does not repeat exactly. We can study the past to better understand the present and forecast the future. But you need a framework to also understand what is different and proactively prepare for different paths...

Enter: The Pillars of Power and related framework.

Further ‘application layer’ of the framework coming soon…

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Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

It effectively reads like a chronological book — connecting the critical inputs (Decisions & Policies by those in Power) with their downstream outputs over time. The cause and effect often get lost due to delays, deception, diffusion, or otherwise — everyone is busy, it’s difficult to find the time and space to step back and see the forest.

The purpose of this series is to ‘free’ that time and space, to step back and connect the dots so people better understand why the World is how it is today. And then to use that Perspective to make better Decisions going forward…

Awareness → Understanding → Empowerment → Better Decisions → Brighter Future

It is certainly not perfect, but hopefully it provides the intended Perspective.

And it may be on the longer side, but it’s worth it. I’d recommend reading to see the visuals, rather than listening. And I’d recommend reading in the order publishing to better follow the sequencing.

This is not a quick consumption piece. This requires time and space. This requires intentional attention. More akin to a Dwarkesh Patel podcast, than a TikTok clip.

Unlike the ubiquitous quick consumption content that has a short shelf life and provides a short term ‘sugar’ rush, this piece intends to provide long term, enduring value. Connecting dots across time and space, providing common sense perspective on thinking and decisions, and building awareness to empower better future decision-making that will impact the world and lives for decades to come…

If it has it’s intended effect, please share this series with others to help boost awareness and get the self-reinforcing virtuous flywheel for the future spinning.

Below is a simple guide to help navigate the series…

GUIDE

The series focuses on the end-to-end evolution of the System, connecting the dots on key Decisions (inputs) and their downstream outputs.

Part I opens with the birth of the US-led System after WWII — walking through it’s creation, why the US was able to dictate the terms (dominance across all Pillars of Power), and the growth mindset underlying the strategy to rebuild the World. Extending all the way through the rise of the Boomers through the Productive Labor Force (1970s/80s+) and culminating with the Golden Age of the System in the 1990s:

• Part I - The Rise of US Hegemony & The Creation and Expansion of the Post WWII System - ~1945 through the 1990s

Part II continues to walk through the chronological progression of the System — starting with the marked shift in mindset from growth to scarcity exiting the 1990s as the Boomer cohort took leadership roles, followed by the degradation of the US’ Pillars of Power and the reciprocal rise of China’s, and culminating in the reasons underlying the unsustainably imbalanced System we have today:

• Part II - The Degradation of US Hegemony & The Beginning of the End of the Post WWII System - ~2000 through ~2024

Part III walks through the downstream outputs we see manifesting today — from wealth inequality to the Capital/Labor divide to the Young/Old divide — stemming from the last ~25 years of Decisions (inputs). The self-similar outputs are looked at separately through the lens of:

• Corporates: Corporate Fractal: The Financialization Flywheel & The Stifling of Innovation

• Wealth Distribution & Stock Market Ownership: Stock Market Ownership Fractal: The Concentration Cascade & The Power of Passive

• Stock Market Composition: Stock Market Fractal: The Concentration Cascade & The Diversification Illusion

• Society: Society Fractal: Dogs & Kids, Content & Attention, The Divide & The Opportunity

Part III has multiple ‘sub’ parts — all look similar because all stem from the same foundational Decisions. But all should be read to understand the different Perspectives.

GOAL

To re-highlight the goal — the why — upfront. An excerpt from the conclusion:

Many today simply see the outputs of the System and Decisions. Few understand how its come about.

Our goal is to help bridge that gap — connecting the inputs that drove the outputs.

With this awareness comes root-level understanding — empowering the rising generations, notably those in Leadership and Power positions, to make better Decisions for a brighter Future for our kids and beyond.

We need to stop wasting time arguing over symptoms (outputs), and start investing time building solutions (inputs) — fixing the foundation off of which to build.

Shift the mindset back toward growth, collective, long-term.

We need to re-align incentives — reconnecting value creation and ownership.

We need to re-empower agency — driving creativity and growth.

We need to ensure accountability — linking decisions and outcomes.

Re-engage in constructive discourse.

• Stop blaming, start building

• Diffusion is easy, responsibility is hard

• Judging is easy, thinking is hard

• Excuses are easy, results are hard

No more bandaids and can-kicking. Time to fix the foundation and build.

Everything is a wave — now is the time to focus our time, our energy, our intentional attention, on building toward the next crest.

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Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.