Different labels. Same pattern.

Nature has been designing, refining, and harnessing this self-reinforcing template for billions of years — from the water cycle, to forest succession, to the sun-plant-soil feedback loop.

Each is a fractal: the same self-similar pattern at every scale.

Each is a self-sustaining feedback loop. Each component is interdependent. Whether you zoom in or out, you see a similar self-reinforcing loop. A flywheel within a flywheel — interconnected flywheels all the way down.

We did not invent the flywheel. We inherited the design.

And now we have the opportunity to mirror the pattern to build better businesses, better systems, and a better future.

Biomimicry: studying nature’s time-tested patterns to solve human challenges

Every thing is a wave. Every wave is made of smaller waves.

INTERDEPENDENT FLYWHEELS ALL THE WAY DOWN

The frameworks at the heart of AquaVis are not separate. They are all interconnected. Each one is a self-reinforcing loop on its own. Together, they compose a larger, deeply interdependent flywheel.

The AquaVis Frameworks apply Nature’s same pattern to Power — both its stock and flow — at different scales:

• The Pillars of Power - what gives the Hegemon (the leading Nation) its Power

• The Duties of Power - the Duties of Leaders currently entrusted with Power

• Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny - how the Decisions made by Leaders today shape the future inherited tomorrow

• Foundational Mindset - how the Mindset of Leaders shapes their Decisions and the downstream consequences of those Decisions

• The Six A’s Flywheel - the underappreciated Power of the Individual

Each framework is both a lens and a lever.

A lens for seeing that scale of power. A lever for turning it forward.

Because a System is simply a structure that directs flows.

And every flow is energy moving through the System — water, capital, attention, decisions.

Each framework names a sub-flywheel within the System’s master loop.

Each reveals a different scale of Power — from Nations, to Leaders, to Individuals.

And each points to a different lever for strengthening the whole.

Interdependent flywheels all the way down.

FOUNDATIONAL MINDSET: THE SUBSTRATE

Before any Pillar. Before any Duty. Before any Decision.

There is Mindset.

Mindset is the soil every other flywheel grows in. It runs on three axes:

• Self vs. Collective

• Short-term vs. Long-term

• Scarcity vs. Abundance

These are not binary choices. They are dialectics — opposing forces in productive tension. Distinct yet interdependent forces that create a more complete picture of reality through contrast and interaction.

Like Yin and Yang. East and West. Order and Chaos. Pattern-Recognition and Imagination.

The healthy System holds both poles in balance.

When one pole captures the System, the dialectic dies. The Pendulums swing to extremes.

The corrupted extreme spins the vicious flywheel: Selfish, Scarcity, Short-termism.

The balanced inverse spins the virtuous flywheel: Collective, Abundance, Long-term.

Mindset is its own flywheel. The choice on each axis is self-reinforcing.

Abundance attracts abundance. Scarcity hardens scarcity.

Long-term thinking compounds. Short-termism consumes the future.

Mindset is universal — every individual carries one.

But its leverage scales with Power.

A leader’s Mindset shapes every Decision they make. Those Decisions flow downstream — into the Pillars, into the Policies that shape Demographics, into the Destiny of a Nation — revealing whether Leaders fulfill or violate their Duties.

An interconnected set of flywheels. Each loop feeds the next. Each loop feeds back into the whole. Context and Sequencing always matter. A ‘linear’ view of a non-linear process:

That is how Power flows through the System.

And it is why fixing a broken System cannot simply start at the System layer.

If the foundational view of reality is wrong, every Decision built on top of it will be wrong.

When the external feedback mechanisms — Media, Markets, Institutions — are corrupted, you cannot trust them as inputs.

So you return to the internal substrate: Mindset.

The Source defines the flow.

Poison the headwater and every channel below it carries the poison.

Impact one — impact everything downstream of it.

In a world of extremes, choose balance.

THE VIRTUOUS CYCLE

With a Growth Mindset at the Foundation, the Flywheel spins forward.

Collective. Long-term. Abundant.

Mindset shapes Decisions. Decisions fulfill Duties.

Leaders shepherd the System.

They tend to the Pillars — investing in asymmetric Technology, abundant Energy, and Money.

They invest in the Productive Labor Force.

Wages rise. Families form. Demographics strengthen.

The flywheels compound. The next generation inherits a stronger System.

Each Duty makes the next easier to practice.

Every sub-flywheel turns with the others.

Each turn of the System Flywheel makes the next turn stronger.

This was the Post-WWII old System through the 1990s — the Golden Age peak.

The pie was growing.

THE VICIOUS CYCLE

With a Scarcity Mindset at the Foundation, the Flywheel spins backward.

Selfish. Short-termism. Scarcity.

The Three Axes inverted.

Mindset shapes Decisions. Decisions violate the Duties.

Leaders stop shepherding the System — and start pillaging it.

They neglect the Pillars — stifling innovative Technology, suppressing Energy investment, debasing Money.

They abandon the Productive Labor Force, investing instead in themselves.

Selling off Productive Capacity and pocketing the proceeds.

Wages stagnate. Families fracture. Demographics collapse.

The flywheels degrade. The next generation inherits a weaker System.

Each violated Duty makes the next harder to fulfill.

Every sub-flywheel turns against the others.

Each turn of the System Flywheel makes the next turn worse.

This is the Post-2000 era — the old System exploited.

The financial pie appeared to grow.

But the productive pie was shrinking.

And those at the top consumed a larger slice than anything they created.

Today we see the many downstream outcomes from a subverted Foundational Mindset.

A Virtuous Flywheel self-corrects when something goes wrong.

A Vicious Flywheel protects itself from correction.

The old System was infiltrated and exploited — by adversaries who studied the openness, by co-opted elites who profited from the rot.

The System’s natural feedback mechanisms — an accountable Media, a discerning Market, real consequences for unelected officials — were systematically broken so the parasite could feed without triggering an immune response.

Most are still asleep. Intentionally kept that way.

Still simply looking at the surface.

Asset prices. Headlines. Narratives.

The appearance of growth.

But beneath the surface, the foundation was being hollowed out.

The System was being consumed.

THE PENDULUMS

When the flywheel runs backward long enough, the underlying balances break.

With the Three Axes inverted for decades, the Pendulums swung past equilibrium — and into rigid fragility:

• Capital over Labor — Money paying money in proportion to how much money it already has. Wages actively suppressed. Capital saved at every turn on the tab of Labor. The K-shape economy in action.

• Consumption over Production — The US shipped its Productive Capacity and the related Productive Labor Force overseas. Turning into a Consumption economy powered by the Capital class — buying back the output on credit.

• Bits over Atoms — Capital flows were redirected from Productive physical assets (factories, energy infrastructure, semiconductors) into financial engineering (buybacks, passive flows, leverage).

• Short-term over Long-term — investing in the old at the expense of the young. Preserving the past at the expense of the future.

These are not four separate symptoms.

They are the same flows of subverted energy expressed in four different stocks.

Each Pendulum should have been re-balancing.

But the feedback loops were severed.

So the Pendulums kept swinging.

Past balance, resilience, and adaptability.

Into imbalance, fragility, and rigidity.

Four Pendulums. One broken Foundation.

And all of them are interconnected.

Labor. Production. Atoms. Long-term. Ignored.

Capital. Consumption. Bits. Short-term. Elevated.

THE CASCADE

These Decisions do not stop at the point of Decision.

They compound downstream. Self-similar outputs. Fractals at every scale.

The pattern begins with the Foundational Mindset, flows into Decisions, and eventually becomes visible in the world.

For decades, Leaders abandoned the Third Duty: Invest in the Productive Labor Force.

Instead, they invested in un-productive Capital — driven by Selfish, Scarcity, and Short-termism.

One abandoned Duty. Four downstream fractals.

Each a self-reinforcing loop. Each spinning the wrong way.

Spawning the first fractal:

• The Financialization Flywheel (the Corporate fractal). Executives are paid in stock. Workers are paid in wages. The link between value creation and value ownership was severed in the late 1990s. Companies borrowed at artificially suppressed rates to repurchase their own shares — Capital raised to inflate Capital. “If you pay someone to increase their stock price, that is what they will try to do.” Cash flows redirected away from Atoms toward Bits — Productive capex stifled, financial engineering rewarded. Capital turned inward. Lobbying to preserve the status quo. Blocking creative destruction. Protecting itself from corrective re-balancing. At every turn, Central Planners chose to save Capital at the direct expense of Labor.

The Financialization Flywheel began to spin, and once it spun long enough, it cascaded into the next:

• The Concentration Cascade (the Ownership fractal). When Capital concentrates inside Corporates, Ownership concentrates too. The gains flow to those who already own the claims. The top 1%. The older cohorts. Foreign owners. Passive vehicles. The corporate economy becomes increasingly owned by those least directly tied to the country’s long-term productive future. And even those who own the market do not truly control it. Voting power concentrates. Proxy power concentrates. Board power concentrates. Governance becomes internal, circular, and self-protective. The ownership link breaks. Capital no longer disciplines management. It protects management. Concentration begets concentration.

The Concentration Cascade flows right into the next fractal:

• The Diversification Illusion (the Investor fractal). You hold the index. The index holds outsized exposure to a few names. Those names are increasingly correlated. Concentration sits inside the wrapper of diversification. The label changed; the exposure did not. In passive world, Capital is no longer allocated to the most productive firms; it is simply assigned to the largest ones. Size attracts flows.

  Flows increase size. Size attracts more flows. Another flywheel. Another concentration loop. The result is rigid fragility. Concentration in supply chains, markets, ownership. Everywhere the same pattern appears.

And all of it cascades into Society itself:

• The Society Fractal (the Generational fractal). The Pendulums do not stop in markets. They flow into individuals. Families. Communities. Demographics. Wages stagnate. Housing costs rise. Family formation becomes harder. The young — who want to build families — cannot afford to. So many do not. Meanwhile, the old retain the wealth, the houses, and the votes. Entitlements and interest expense pay the past. The young inherit the bill. Any great power that spends more on the old than on the young risks ceasing to be a great power. The Demographic flywheel turns backward. Fewer families. Fewer children. A weaker next generation. A smaller future. There are now more dogs than kids in the US.

One abandoned Duty.

Four downstream fractals.

First, they broke the link between value creation and value ownership.

Then they broke the feedback mechanisms.

Then they broke the allocation of Capital.

Then they broke the distribution of opportunity.

A vicious, System-destroying cycle.

Concentration fractals everywhere.

Interconnected flywheels — all the way down.

FORM FOLLOWS FLOW

Every flywheel reduces to the same physics: stocks shaped by flows.

• Flows are primary — flowing energy: capital, attention, decisions, water.

• Stocks are derivative — accumulated energy: what compounds when the flow has been directed for long enough.

Rivers carve valleys. Capital flows shape industries.

Attention flows shape culture. Decisions shape Destiny.

From sea shells to stock prices — every form is the physical remnant of an immaterial flow.

Form follows flow.

When flows last long enough, the stock builds up. Pendulums reach extremes.

The Cascade is simply this principle made visible.

Decades of distorted flows created distorted stocks:

• Concentrated Capital.

• Hollowed-out Production.

• Fragile supply chains.

• Collapsed Demographics.

• A weakened System.

Every layer of the lattice — every sub-flywheel — is just stocks and flows at a different scale.

Once you see it, you cannot un-see it.

RESTORING THE NATURAL BALANCE

The old System didn’t simply fail.

It was subverted — by adversaries who studied its openness.

And corrupted — by co-opted elites who profited from the rot.

Flows were harnessed to serve:

• The few at the expense of the many.

• The old at the expense of the young.

• Capital at the expense of Labor.

• Consumption at the expense of Production.

• Bits at the expense of Atoms.

• Short-term at the expense of Long-term.

Leaders abandoned their Duties.

They blindly ‘preserved’ a subverted System that systematically weakened its architect and strengthened its adversaries.

Wealth shipped overseas. Productive Capacity sold off. Adversaries strengthened. The Hegemon weakened.

Failed Duties at the top flowed downstream into the observable, fractal-like symptoms visible today.

The System’s natural feedback mechanisms — its immune response — were systematically severed:

• Captured Media.

• Blind Markets.

• Corrupted Institutions.

• Unelected officials with no consequence for poor Decisions.

When the immune system stops working, the parasite freely spreads.

The wheel spun backward, unchecked. No natural re-balancing.

The path forward is not to nostalgically restore the old System.

The old System is dead.

The path forward is to build a New System.

Remember: a System is simply a structure that directs flows.

It should not be designed to force outcomes.

It should be designed to help guide flows with intention.

Too much structure suffocates: Regulation stifles innovation. Energy suppressed builds up beneath the surface — until the dam breaks.

Too little structure breeds chaos: No rules. No coordination. Energy dissipates without compounding.

Balance is key. Structure that channels — not structure that constrains.

The river needs banks. But banks that follow the river — not banks that trap it.

The Hegemon — enabled by leadership across the Pillars — earns the right to design the System.

But the Foundational Mindset of the Leaders determines the architecture:

• Built well, the architecture should serve all of the System constituents.

• Built poorly, it serves the few while consuming the whole.

The New System should be built to:

• Fulfill The Three Duties: Shepherd the System, Strengthen the Pillars, Invest in the Productive Labor Force

• Grow the overall pie — to create sustainable abundance, to restore balance

Context and sequencing matter.

For too long, natural re-balancing flows were suppressed.

Time to unleash the energy.

Fluid over rigid.
Adaptable over calcified.
Resilient over concentrated.
Dynamic over static.

A New System must restore the feedback mechanisms — so it can self-correct in real time, find its own balance, and pass momentum forward to the next generation.

Nature naturally has feedback loops. We chose to break them. We can choose to restore them.

If Mindset got us into this mess — why can’t Mindset get us out?

The Source defines the flow.

Reset the Foundation, and every flywheel downstream begins to find its natural shape again.

Be like water.

Water seeks balance — without resistance, without force.

The levers are not new. They have been waiting:

• Mindset is the lever. Collective over Self. Long-term over Short-term. Abundance over Scarcity. The Three Axes, re-balanced.

• Curation is the discipline. Curate your inputs. Filter the noise. Connect the dots. Curate, curate, curate.

• Atoms over Bits is the reallocation. Capital flowing back into Productive Capacity. And the Productive Labor Force attached to them.

The New System architecture may be redesigned from above.

But it will be built from the energy below.

One Mind. One Decision. One flywheel at a time.

IT BEGINS WITH YOU

The New System is built from the energy below.

That energy begins with your Mind.

Mindset sits at the foundation.

You choose how to harness it.

This is the purpose of the Energy Flows Framework.

It creates ‘structure’ for the flow — from organization, to direction, to action:

Order Your Mind: The stock of accumulated, immaterial energy. Build the lens. Without a clear framework, you are vulnerable to the noise and chaos of the world.

⌄

Direct Your Attention: The flow of finite bandwidth. Control the current. Once your mind is ordered, you dictate where your active flowing energy goes, rather than letting it be stolen by distraction.

⌄

Harness Your Money: The stock you have built, and the new flow you direct. Command the reserve. With your mind sharp and your attention focused, you can effectively deploy your stored energy to build and protect your assets.

⌄

Shape Your Future: The compounded outcome of the prior three. Own the outcome. When your internal clarity, active attention, and stored capital are aligned, you stop re-acting to the world’s design — and start building your own.

And the 6 A’s are the engine inside. They name how you actually turn the wheel:

• Awareness — see the world the way it is.

• Attention — focus your flowing energy.

• Agency — recognize your power.

• Action — move intentionally.

• Accountability — own the result.

• Actualization — shape the future.

The Flows name what changes. The 6 A’s name how it changes. All are focused on energy stock and flow.

Together they form one complete flywheel: your personal flywheel.

The individual-scale mirror of the systemic System Flywheel. Same shape, different scale.

From the 6 A’s Individual flywheel, to the Three Duties Leadership flywheel to the broader System itself — all are interconnected, all are interdependent.

The System Flywheel spins fastest when its sub-flywheels are in sync.

Which is why the most important battle is the battle over Your Mind. Your Attention. Your Energy.

Those who benefit from the broken System want you asleep — captured, distracted, divided.

• Engagement vs. Enlightenment.

• Capture vs. Clarity.

• Noise vs. Signal.

This is the choice every individual makes every day.

Stop looking to the external to validate.

Start harnessing the internal to build.

You are the quality of your inputs. Intentionally choose your focus.

When the noise quiets, your intuition speaks. Listen to what resonates.

You know it when you see it.

A population running its own 6 A’s forward demands the same of its Leaders.

And it will recognize when those Leaders are running the System backward.

Awareness leads to Understanding.

Understanding leads to Empowerment.

Empowerment leads to Better Decisions.

Better Decisions lead to a Brighter Future.

That is the process. That is the path.

Understand the flows. Harness the energy. Turn the flywheel forward.

It begins with you.

FLYWHEELS ON FLYWHEELS

Each layer of the System is its own complete flywheel.

Each flywheel is interconnected with all the others.

Together they compose the interconnected, interdependent System Flywheel.

Another linear representation of a ‘non-linear’ process to provide a ‘simple’ summary:

Each row is a different scale.

Each row is its own loop.

The shape is identical.

Interconnected flywheels — all the way down.

LISTEN TO NATURE

In naturally functioning Systems, self-reinforcing flywheels are inherent.

The water cycle is the template we observe most closely.

Sunlight evaporates the ocean. Vapor condenses into clouds. Clouds release rain. Rain feeds rivers. Rivers return to the ocean. Evaporation begins again.

Within it — each cloud system is its own micro-cycle. Each watershed is its own loop. Each storm system is a complete dynamical event.

Thousands of sub-cycles, each spinning on its own.

A flywheel of flywheels.

The same architecture appears in any natural system.

The tree: roots feed the trunk; the trunk feeds the branches; leaves fall, decompose, and return energy to the roots.

Ecosystems within ecosystems. Organisms within ecosystems. Cells within organisms.

Each is a flywheel. Each is part of a flywheel.

The same shape sits beneath every human System.

The Pillars. The Duties. Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny. The Energy Flows Framework. The 6 A’s.

These are not invented frameworks — they are observed flywheels.

Each names a sub-loop in a self-reinforcing system that Nature has been running, in some form, since the beginning.

AquaVis observes the System like Nature.

We do not tell it how to work.

We observe how it does work.

This is why Nature is the ultimate arbiter.

Nature seeks balance.

Nature holds the dialectic alive.

Nature does not care about narratives.

Nature responds to flows.

When the human-built System drifts too far out of balance, the gap eventually closes.

Order → Chaos → Order again

By choice, if wise. By force, if ignored.

Nature does not preserve structures. Nature preserves patterns.

The old System is dead.

The New System is being built — an uncarved block, a living structure, a flywheel waiting for us to collectively shape.

The only question is whether you see it clearly enough to participate.

Time to wake up. Time to build.

Understand the flows. Harness the energy. Turn the flywheel forward.

The Way of AquaVis.

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Disclosures

This commentary has been prepared by AquaVis Advisors LLC (“AquaVis”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does it constitute investment advice or a recommendation to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, AquaVis makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

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If we want better leaders, we need to hold them accountable.

If we want to hold them accountable, we need a framework to do so.

Enter: The Three Duties of Power

A framework to guide leaders — and a standard by which to judge them.

Because the purpose of leadership is not to exploit the System.

The purpose of leadership is not to preserve and expand Power for those already in Power.

The Purpose of Leadership is to strengthen the System as a whole — and build a better future.

The Blueprint of Power & The Flywheel

Why do empires rise, falter, and shift?

Because leaders either fulfill the Duties of Power — or fail to.

To understand how, we have to start with what the Duties govern: the System itself.

The base layer of our world is the System — a structure of rules and Policies that shape the flows of ‘energy,’ notably Labor and Capital.

Think of the System as a riverbed: it doesn’t create the water, it directs it.

• Leaders do not create natural forces — the flows of energy. But they do help structure the channels through which those forces flow — via Policies, incentives, rules: collectively, Decisions.

• When the structure is healthy, energy flows productively. Labor and Capital reinforce each other. Families form. Technology advances. Energy expands. Money funds productive growth. The future strengthens. Virtuous Cycle.

• When the structure is corrupted, energy pools in the wrong places. Capital detaches from Labor. Assets inflate while productive capacity deteriorates. The young are blocked from formation. The future is quietly sacrificed. Vicious Cycle.

This is why leadership matters.

Not because leaders control everything.

They do not — as much as they’d like to and often try to (#JurassicPark).

The world is too complex. Nature is too powerful. Systems are too adaptive.

But leaders do shape the structure through which energy flows.

Ultimately, Leaders at the helm have Three Duties to keep the river running clean:

Duty 1 — Shepherd the System. Consistently check whether the structure is still serving its intended purpose. Allow natural forces to find balance. Intervene with restraint.

• This means asking whether the structure is still serving its intended purpose.

• A good system does not require endless intervention. It is designed well enough that natural forces can seek balance through it, letting energy flow.

• That is the true art of leadership: not micromanaging every outcome, but building the right structure so productive energy can flow.

• Rules matter. Incentives matter. Policy matters. If the structure rewards production, formation, and long-term investment, a civilization strengthens. If it rewards extraction, speculation, and short-term self-enrichment, a civilization degrades.

• The System is never static. Nature and its flows constantly seek balance; a poorly designed System and it’s Policies can create serious im-balances — pushing pendulums to extremes (#unsustainably-imbalanced-System).

• Every generation in power inherits a structure built by those before them. Their responsibility is not simply to preserve it. Their responsibility is to observe it, adapt it, and guide it back toward balance when the flows become distorted.

Duty 2 — Strengthen the Pillars of Power. To maintain hegemonic control, leaders must continuously nurture their asymmetric advantages across the three Pillars: Technology (and the Productive Capacity to build it), Energy (to power it), and Money (to fund it).

• Technology is the asymmetric edge that is constantly evolving — the productive capacity, industrial base, intelligence layer, and tools that determine who can build the future.

• Energy is the power source — the abundant, low-cost input that allows physical reality to scale.

• Money is the funding mechanism — the trusted, controlled financial architecture that coordinates capital across time.

• When these Pillars are strong, a system can deter threats, fund growth, and shape the world around it.

• When these pillars weaken, Power becomes performative. The system may still look strong from the outside, but the foundation begins to hollow out underneath.

• A nation that cannot build its own Critical Technologies is not sovereign.

• A nation that cannot secure abundant Energy is not resilient.

• A nation that abuses its Money Pillar to inflate assets rather than fund productive growth eventually destroys trust in the System itself.

• The Pillars must be continuously nurtured. They are not abstractions. They are the foundations of Power.

Duty 3 — Invest in the Productive Labor Force. Through Policies aimed at the prime working-age cohort (25–54), leaders both compound current productivity and seed the future. You optimize for this cohort because they are the engine. They produce. They create. They grow the pie so everyone can be better off.

Duty 3 is where another interconnected flywheel lives.

The Decisions made by leaders today — around Policies influencing the Productive Labor Force and family formation — dictate the Demographics of tomorrow. And the Demographics of tomorrow ultimately determine collective Destiny. And thus, the Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny series.

If growth and longevity of the System are the goals, the young Productive Labor Force must be the focus — with family formation as a focal KPI.

Sounds ‘simple,’ but it is foundational.

Simply, no children = no future.

Over time, these Decisions compound. Leaders make Decisions. Those Decisions shape the Demographic future. That Demographic future determines the Destiny of the System. Decisions made today matter for decades…

And at the root of it everything is mindset — the intention behind the Decisions.

Every generation in Power has a choice along the foundational mindset continuum:

• Self vs. Collective

• Short-term vs. Long-term

• Scarcity vs. Abundance

The choice they make doesn’t just shape their own era. It shapes the demographic and capital structure their grandchildren will inherit. The Decisions flow downstream — across space and time.

Thus, Decisions made decades ago are felt today — the downstream outputs are now clearly observable.

Let’s look at how this has played out over time — starting with an era that got it right.

Good Leadership & The Golden Age (Post-WWII to 2000)

After WWII, the US was the unilateral hegemon and thus the architect of an entirely new System. The leaders of the Lost and GI Generations adopted a growth mindset rooted in collective abundance: grow the pie so everyone is better off. They mastered the Three Duties.

Duty 1 Fulfilled — Shepherding the System

With the majority of Productive Capacity in the US after WWII, leaders in the US dropped Tariffs to near zero on the rest of the world, intentionally shifting some of this capacity out of the US: re-building the rest-of-world Productive Capacity to re-balance the global economy peacefully. This was not naïveté. It was strategy, part of the Marshall Plan — to grow the pie for everyone, including allies who would then anchor the System.

Duty 2 Fulfilled — Strengthening the Pillars

The US invested in evolving asymmetric Technology, dominated Energy (60%+ of global oil), and controlled the Money Pillar (50%+ of global gold). Unilateral hegemonic Power deterred challengers and enforced the System when challenged. ‘Tests’ like the Cold War and the Energy Crisis of the 1970s arose, and were addressed — with the clear understanding that the control over the System depends upon the control of and leadership in the Pillars of Power.

Duty 3 Fulfilled — Investing in the Productive Labor Force

Policies like the GI Bill and the interstate highway system fueled the economy and facilitated massive household formation. All thoughtful Policies aimed at productive capital allocation, with massive multipliers and non-zero-sum outcomes. The result: the Baby Boom. Policies were aligned — at home and abroad. Pointing in the same direction.

Then, as the Boomers — the ‘product’ of the above productive Policies — themselves entered the Productive Labor Force in the 1980s, leaders adapted. They shifted the Policy spotlight to this rising generation — slashing top marginal tax rates on labor from 70% to sub-30% and engineering cheap, accessible housing.

The Boomers came of working age into a System that invested in them.

Leaders of the System chose the collective over the self, the future over the past — directly investing in the Productive Labor Force with the goal of building a better future.

The Virtuous Flywheel spun. Capital and Labor grew in sync. Thoughtful Decisions created an Echo Boom in Demographics, culminating in the balanced, expanding Golden Age of the 1990s.

This is what it looks like when leaders choose the Collective. The Long-term. Abundance.

Bad Leadership & The Degradation (2000–2024)

Around 2000, a dangerous inflection occurred.

As the Boomer cohort exited the Productive Labor Force and began crossing over into Capital — now owning the assets rather than building them — the leaders in Power made a choice. They kept the Policy spotlight squarely on themselves.

Self over Collective. Short-term over Long-term. Scarcity over Abundance.

A massive foundational mindset shift at the leadership level that impacted every interconnected flywheel downstream.

Over the next two-plus decades, those in Power systematically failed all Three Duties.

Duty 1 Failed — Shepherding the System

The System reached balance in the 1990s — the Golden Age. Rather than re-assessing whether the structure still served it’s intended purpose, leaders blindly pushed on. And then, instead of adjusting the System as imbalances clearly accumulated, leaders allowed adversaries and co-opted elites to continue to exploit it — shifting the flows to strengthen adversaries and weaken the US, to enrich and empower the few and impoverish and enslave the many.

Corporate executives, financially incentivized to optimize next quarter’s margins, offshored Productive Labor and Productive Capacity at scale. The System’s feedback loops turned vicious; nobody at the wheel was watching the road. Critical external dependencies began to rise, chokepoints began to surface.

The ‘subverted’ underlying System systematically invested in:

• The old at the expense of the young

• The past at the expense of the future

• Adversaries at the expense of allies

While ‘leaders’ sat ‘idly’ by — or worse, actively enabled it. Instead of Shepherding the System, they preyed upon it — making it rigid and fragile, instead of resilient and adaptable. All the while, refusing to take accountability.

Duty 2 Failed — Strengthening the Pillars

Choosing short-term efficiency over long-term resilience, leaders offshored Critical Product capacity — most dangerously, 90%+ of leading-edge Semiconductor production to Taiwan. They created chokepoints precisely where the Technology Pillar should have been most resilient.

And incumbents — with built up lobbying power, notably from the Financialization Flywheel — actively stifled innovation to maintain power, to suppress change. Using ‘tools’ like regulatory capture to concentrate Power — not allowing the underlying, often disruptive, energy to flow. Technology and the related progress was suffocated — impacting both society and National Security.

The Energy Pillar was kept alive by the shale revolution, but meaningful opportunities for abundant Energy — from nuclear to fusion — were actively suppressed by adversaries and incumbents via regulations, ESG campaigns, and outright corruption.

The Money Pillar was degraded to save Capital. In 2008 and again in 2020, leaders printed trillions to bail out banks and asset holders. This was a profoundly un-productive use of capital. As a result, government debt grew faster than GDP; the ratio crossed 130%.

At every turn after 2000, the choice was the same: inflate Capital. Suppress Labor. Save themselves at the expense of those they were meant to serve.

The Financialization Flywheel ultimately spawned today’s Concentration Cascade.

And the directly related Diversification Illusion.

Duty 3 Failed — Investing in the Productive Labor Force

Unelected and unaccountable Power (notably the Federal Reserve, and related Treasury) explicitly used the fear of inflation to suppress wage growth for the rising generation. The purpose was not stability — it was to expand the relative power of Capital by eroding the power of Labor. Paired with a massive offshoring of Productive Labor (and related Productive Capacity) to China, Labor’s bargaining power went to zero.

Simultaneously, decades of money printing inflated the cost of the things a young family needs most: housing, childcare, healthcare, education. The entrance fee to the System rose faster than wages — and leaders ensured wages couldn’t catch up.

The Productive Capacity was shipped to China. The Productive Labor Force was financially smothered. Both at once.

Instead of Policies encouraging household formation, we got Policies that actively deterred it. Millennials were heavily indebted out of college; everything family-related got more expensive year after year; the math simply did not work.

Rather than building ownership of the System — with aligned incentives for its success — the Productive Labor Force became renters of a System they could no longer afford. With limited incentive to defend it.

The Flywheel spun in the wrong direction: vicious, destructive.

Without families forming, there are fewer children. Without children, there is literally no future. Demographics, Decisions, Destiny — now running in reverse.

The visible output: the Concentration Cascade at every level, from asset ownership, to the stock market composition and beyond. Capital growing exponentially relative to Labor. Wealth, ownership, and decision-making power compressing into a narrower and narrower base.

Those “shepherding” the System chose to systematically invest in the old at the direct expense of the young — sacrificing Destiny for short-term greed.

The Path Forward — Future vs. Past

True leadership takes accountability. It directs energy toward solutions, invests in the future, and empowers the Productive Labor Force — rather than pillaging the System to enrich a select few.

The real divide today is not left vs. right.

It is Future vs. Past. Forward vs. Backwards.

To course correct our Destiny, a new generation of leaders must step up — reject scarcity, re-embrace abundance, and re-anchor the foundational mindset.

It starts there. Mindset first. Policy follows mindset. And everything flows downstream.

What that looks like in practice is restoring the Three Duties of Power:

• Shepherd an intentionally-designed New System. A System designed for the next 50 years, not the last 50 years or the next 50 days.

• Re-build the Pillars of Power. Technology, Energy, Money. Re-shore Critical Production. Discipline the Money Pillar. Unleash the Technology and Energy stacks for the next era. Allow it to all compound.

• Invest in the Productive Labor Force. Make family formation possible again. Make ownership possible again. Make the System something worth defending again.

With a focus on Growth. The Long-term. The Collective.

And it all starts at an individual level. Becoming aware. Re-connecting within. Re-taking control of your energy. Re-directing your intentional attention — your flowing energy — on what matters.

Awareness → Understanding → Empowerment → Better Decisions → Brighter Future.

To fix everything downstream, you must fix the foundation. No more bandaids. No more can-kicking.

Now we have a framework — The Three Duties of Power — to both guide leaders and hold them accountable.

This piece is a subset of the multi-part Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny series. With a focus on the three (3) Duties of those in Power framework laid out in Part I and Part II — which ties directly to the Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny flywheel.

For the deeper walk through how Decisions by those in Power shape our collective Destiny — and how we got here — read the full Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny series.

Additionally, a related X thread.

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Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

Deep-dives: Substack

Short notes: Substack notes

Videos & Podcasts: YouTube

Tweets: X

Website: AquaVis

Disclosures

This commentary has been prepared by AquaVis Advisors LLC (“AquaVis”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does it constitute investment advice or a recommendation to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, AquaVis makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

Any opinions or estimates expressed reflect personal views as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider this material as only one input in their decision-making process and should obtain independent financial, legal, and tax advice before making any investment decisions.

Investing in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and may be affected by changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, credit conditions, and the price or volatility of underlying assets. Certain investments may be speculative and are not suitable for all investors.

AquaVis may, from time to time, have long or short positions in securities or other financial instruments mentioned and may transact in such instruments without further notice.

As the content library and community have grown, I wanted to streamline the structure — making it easier to enter, follow, and revisit.

Enter: The AquaVis Map.

Like all things AquaVis, it is modeled after Nature. And like all AquaVis products, it takes shape from the river — flowing water.

There are now five main sections:

Foundations — The Source
Essential Guides. Core Frameworks. Guiding Principles.
Start here to understand the AquaVis worldview and the mental models used to map the System and its flows.

Insights — Surface Flow
One Visual. One Signal. One Implication.
Quick insights that reveal the hidden currents beneath the surface.

Newsletters — Main Current
Applied Analysis. Deeper Context. Connected Systems.
Newsletters that trace the flows shaping the System through the Pillars of Power.

Whitepapers — Deep Channel
Foundational Frameworks. Enduring Research. Nature Analogs.
Evergreen whitepapers that map the System through the AquaVis nature-inspired lens.

Companions — The Eddy
Visual Maps. Podcast Episodes. Video Walkthroughs.
Companion multimedia materials that revisit, extend, and explore the core written content.

Two sections are new: Foundations and Insights.

Foundations is the starting point — the place to understand the AquaVis worldview, guiding principles, and core frameworks.

Insights is the new distilled format — one visual, one signal, one implication. Each Insight connects to a deeper Newsletter or Whitepaper, creating a faster way to engage with the core research.

The goal is simple: make it easier to follow the flow.

AquaVis moves like a river — with direction, depth, and rhythm. Some sections move quickly. Others run deeper.

Start at The Source.

Observe the Surface Flow.

Follow the Main Current.

Delve into the Deep Channel.

Circle back through The Eddy.

Each section offers a different way to enter the flow — from surface signals to enduring frameworks.

Flowing water is flowing energy made visible.

AquaVis is here to map it.

If you enjoy the content, subscribe.

Subscribe now

If it is useful, share.

Share

Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

Deep-dives: Substack

Short notes: Substack notes

Videos & Podcasts: YouTube

Tweets: X

Website: AquaVis

Disclosures

This commentary has been prepared by AquaVis Advisors LLC (“AquaVis”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does it constitute investment advice or a recommendation to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, AquaVis makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

Any opinions or estimates expressed reflect personal views as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider this material as only one input in their decision-making process and should obtain independent financial, legal, and tax advice before making any investment decisions.

Investing in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and may be affected by changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, credit conditions, and the price or volatility of underlying assets. Certain investments may be speculative and are not suitable for all investors.

AquaVis may, from time to time, have long or short positions in securities or other financial instruments mentioned and may transact in such instruments without further notice.

The Pillars of Power appear simple. But the construction has taken decades.

And even longer when you consider all of the time and energy that went into the ‘resources’ required to build it.

We spend a lot of time curating the best thinkers in their respective fields, delving deeply into their research, thought processes, and track records, and ultimately adapting our learnings into our own framework — bundling the unbundled. We are not experts in each field, but by listening and utilizing this curation process, we can ‘stand on the shoulders of giants’ — using each as a building block to raise our awareness and understanding of the system. — Framework

That’s the beauty of progress. It compounds. Once verified from first-principles, you can keep building upon the foundations laid by predecessors — standing on the shoulders of giants, enabling higher highs and higher lows. Every thing is a wave, ideally upward sloping.

Over the past year of publicly publishing, the Pillars of Power have proven to be a useful foundational Framework:

• A lens for intent — in a world of lies.

• A filter for signal — in a world of noise.

• A compass to connect the dots — in a world of chaos.

• A structure for clarity — in a world of complexity.

• A tool for order — in a world of dis-order.

Simply, simplifying.

A way to understand the World and key Decisions across time.

But the Pillars also double as a portfolio.

In fact, that’s how The Pillars were born. From a single pursuit: building a sustainable portfolio that could endure the test of time — especially periods of chaos and dis-order, like 4th Turnings.

In studying history, we recognized the Pillars of geostrategic Power are consistent across time:

• Asymmetric Technology

• Powered by low-cost and abundant Energy

• Financed by fully-controlled Money

The hegemon(s) who leads in these three key spheres controls the World Order.

The collective, self-reinforcing Pillars of Power have stood the test of time. And they provide a consistent framework for understanding the World and the decisions that shape it — with the lust for Power as an underlying driving force.

Never has this been more relevant than today. The World System is in flux. We are at the confluence of multiple converging cycles (Backdrop) driving an acceleration in change, noise, and disorder. — The Pillars of Power - An Introduction

Just as the Pillars help order your mind and direct your attention, they also help you harness your money. The same discipline across forms of energy:

• Your Mind: Accumulated, stored immaterial energy.

• Your Attention: Flowing energy.

• Your Money: Accumulated, stored material energy.

The entire process is designed around understanding and harnessing the stock and flow of energy — The Way of AquaVis.

AquaVís - /ˈɑː.kwə viːs/ - ‘natural force or power of water’ … follow the flow — About

Flowing water — like a river — is an observable visual of energy flowing in Nature. And just like Nature, the world of geopolitics and the stock market are natural systems. Complex adaptive systems that can be understood through the lens of Nature and its observable principles. Money flows through the stock market like water flows through a river.

Nature has been doing this a lot longer than us. We observe, listen, and learn. And apply Nature-inspired principles, concepts, and designs to help solve ‘real-world’ problems. — About

The framework creates ‘structure’ for the flow — from organization, to direction, to action.

Order Your Mind Build the lens. Without a clear framework, you are vulnerable to the noise and chaos of the world.

⌄

Direct Your Attention Control the flow. Once your mind is ordered, you dictate where your active flowing energy goes, rather than having it ‘stolen’ by distractions.

⌄

Harness Your Money Command the reserve. With your mind sharp and your attention focused, you can effectively deploy your stored energy to build and protect your assets.

⌄

Shape Your Future Own the outcome. When your internal clarity, active flowing energy, and stored capital are aligned, you stop re-acting to the world’s design and start building your own.

The 6 A’s Flywheel is an even ‘simpler’ way to visualize the energy flow:

• Awareness: See the world the way it is.

• Attention: Focus your flowing energy.

• Agency: Recognize your power.

• Action: Move intentionally.

• Accountability: Own the result.

• Actualization: Shape the future.

THE PILLARS OF POWER PORTFOLIO

Back to the Portfolio angle…

The Pillars of Power have stood the test of time, and so has a related portfolio — it works because it is always where the hegemons are focused throughout History. That’s how the framework was built — studying History from first-principles through the lens of foundational incentives.

Hegemons change, the System changes, but the underlying Pillars remain — intricately interconnected and self-reinforcing:

And some - like - are beginning to recognize it’s power as a portfolio:

Almost there…

Using this ‘simplistic’ equal-weighted version of the Pillars of Power:

• Technology - XLK - [Technology Sector ETF]

• Energy - XLE - [Energy Sector ETF]

• Money - GLD - [Gold ETF]

You get a naturally balanced portfolio that dramatically outperforms the market [SPY] over time. And even more so using an incredibly simple re-balancing trigger.

The simple, highly liquid 3-position portfolio re-balanced 4 times in ~21 years — as indicated by the yellow highlighted rows above.

And the output is pretty astonishing:

$1,000 invested in SPY in January 2005 would have grown to ~$7,800 today, while $1,000 invested in this portfolio would have grown to ~$17,700 — more than 2x the return of the market.

This simple version of the Pillars of Power portfolio outperforms SPY across essentially every metric. Most notably cumulative total return, which is my primary focus — I view volatility as opportunity, not risk; a topic for an upcoming piece.

Of course there are many caveats. This is for educational purposes to simply highlight the power of the Pillars of Power as a portfolio.

• The starting point (January 2005) was chosen because GLD launched at the end of 2004, and I wanted to ensure the the portfolio represented simple, liquid access for everyone.

• The ETFs were chosen because they are the most liquid, highly accessible representations of each of the respective Pillars of Power (and John chose them, not me)

• The equal-weighting starting point of the positions was chosen because it is the simplest (and, again, John chose that, not me).

• The re-balancing trigger was simply created to avoid extreme concentration — it only triggers 4x in over 20 years. So in 20 years, you only have to actively do anything 4x.

• Dividends were reinvested. No taxes or transaction costs were considered in the example — with only 4 re-balancing triggers, they are de minimis anyways.

The list goes on. Again, everything was chosen for max simplicity. This is not some hyper-optimized backtest (n.b., you’ll never see a bad backtest). A proper one would use Monte Carlo simulation across starting points, sizing, triggers and a whole lot more…

This is not that.

This is simply to highlight the foundation off of which to build.

This is to show how powerful an extraordinarily simple version of the Pillars of Power portfolio can be.

This is to highlight a basic ‘market’ alternative at a time when the market itself has never been more risky.

And this is so easy a cat (unlike Larry, I don’t have one) could implement it.

The exercise was pulled forward by the ‘simple’ post by on X, noted above. I was planning to publish more on this ‘application layer’ in a few months — as some legacy limitations go away — but carpe diem.

And, given the ongoing Concentration Cascade — which I’ve written extensively about, publishing near the exact day of the latest high — time is of the essence.

So, not only are most index funds (S&P 500, Nasdaq, etc.) concentrated bets on ~10 companies — not the ‘marketed’ diversified baskets of hundreds of companies (The Diversification Illusion).

But, in fact, these indices (and related ETFs) are concentrated bets on the AI Infrastructure cycle in the US which is highly dependent upon a single chokepoint: TSMC in Taiwan. Yes, the Taiwan that is right next to China — which we have written extensively about.

— Stock Market Fractal: The Concentration Cascade & The Diversification Illusion

The intricately laid out Cascade has begun… cascading. As an example, Oracle’s stock price (ORCL) is down over ~50% in the last few months, while it’s CDS (~risk of default) is up over 4x.

As I’ve repeatedly highlighted, now is the time to pay intentional attention.

Both the stock market allocation mechanism and the resultant stock market composition are more important than ever to understand. Today there is what I call the Concentration Cascade — concentration and inherent fragility at every layer, notably within the control and composition of US indices. These two pieces — Stock Market Ownership & Control and Stock Market Composition — provide a simple walk through of both the stock market allocation mechanism and the resultant composition — highly recommended reading. Outsourcing your attention, your thinking, and/or your capital allocation without this foundational awareness is dangerous. The time for unquestioned assumptions and blind passivity is over. — Media, Markets, & Mindset

And highlighted the likely trigger(s) to be aware of. I expect more will come...

BUILDING OFF OF THE FOUNDATION

So the Pillars of Power 'framework’ serves multiple purposes, one of which is a portfolio template.

The above example is an awesome, simple starting point — a foundation off of which to build.

And there is beauty in simplicity. When intuition and evidence align, confidence grows.

The opportunity, and what I’ve been focused on for a long time, is continuing to build upon the simplicity.

Not to over-complicate, but to continue refining to expand and progress.

There are many vectors of ‘optimization’ opportunity — from sub-sector and stock selection beneath the sector ‘surface,’ to more sophisticated re-balancing triggers and sizing, to macro overlays, tail strategies, and a lot more.

For example, the above portfolio stops at the top of the funnel. I focus on following the flow to the bottom. Finding the purest asymmetric expression of the allocation intention — convexity is king.

Let’s work from the top down for the Technology Pillar example:

• So, rather than simply allocating to the US-centric XLK for Technology, maybe you believe Semiconductors (SMH) are a better representation of what you want to express because of your view of the current Technology cycle (Technology Wave).

• And beneath that, everyone needs to re-shore for resilience (De-Globalization & Supply Chain Wave) and you need more Semiconductors — so maybe Semiconductor Capital Equipment is an even purer expression.

• But what about within the Semiconductor Capital Equipment realm — shouldn’t Advanced Packaging exposed companies grow even faster than the underlying market because of ‘traditional’ Moore’s Law physical limitations (Semiconductor Scaling & Technology Wave) and the growing trend of going ‘vertical’?

• Who sits at the bottom of that funnel, at the confluence of all of the waves and trends — Onto Innovation (ONTO) pops up as a candidate.

And you can keep drilling further to see if ONTO meets key industry (e.g., growing faster than market?), company (e.g., does management have skin in the game? durable advantages?), and stock (e.g., what is the valuation and the KPI that drives it?) criteria to justify a position — one of many further vetting layers.

These are all parallel processes that certainly add complexity along the way. But the opportunity is to streamline once again to simplify the process and output. Bundling and un-bundling. A systematic checklist of sorts. This is where I spend a lot of my time. And will publish more on going forward.

And you can do that exact exercise within each of the Pillars.

The Pillars provide the framework. You choose how to fill it out.

This is just touching the surface, I take it many layers deeper — utilizing the framework from both the top-down, and the bottom-up. Finding ideas that sit at the Confluence of multiple cycles, at the bottom of multiple filters, and at the intersection of the Venn Diagram. The various process ‘streams’ all flow together to form the Confluence — hence the name of the strategy.

Again, in my view every thing is a wave.

While I’m aware of the shorter-form waves — from days to months — that is not where I choose to spend my time and energy, my intentional attention.

In general, I’m focused on the longer-form waves — years to decades — to help ensure I get the big things, the massive flows of energy, right — like foundational System shifts, Technological Revolutions, and more.

Understanding where we are on each wave — from Technology, to Demographics, to Empires and more — is critically important for both perspective and to make sure you are focused on where the energy is flowing, where the pendulum is swinging — flow with the river, not against it.

Particularly at a point in time as unique as today.

The 4th Turning — ‘created’ by — is really a confluence of multiple waves (cycles), adding to its overall energy and power. With all of these cycles converging, pendulums swinging, and the foundational System changing — now is a time to pay intentional attention.

This wave mapping paired with the Pillars of Power framework helps keep me organized. And helps me internally direct my energy — attention, capital, or otherwise — toward the big opportunities: the Confluence, where all the rivers, or flows of energy, meet.

MINDSET MATTERS

With many of the external sources (media) and evaluation mechanisms (markets) compromised and/or degraded, it is best to begin with the internal.

Sounds fluffy. But, when you step away from the noise (#Nature), your inner intuition is powerful. There is a reason why ‘you know it when you see it,’ why when you hear something and it resonates you ‘know’ it’s true, why ‘the smell test’ often works as a useful filter. It is difficult (impossible?) to fake authenticity.

— Media, Markets, & Mindset

I’ll walk through these layers in more detail in upcoming process-focused pieces.

But the general point is this framework helps both create internal order — to avoid being ‘whipped around’ by the external chaos — and organized preparation — so you are ready to intentionally act.

And in parallel, the curation of vetted, aligned external sources is important.

We spend a lot of time curating the best thinkers in their respective fields, delving deeply into their research, thought processes, and track records, and ultimately adapting our learnings into our own framework — bundling the unbundled. We are not experts in each field, but by listening and utilizing this curation process, we can ‘stand on the shoulders of giants’ — using each as a building block to raise our awareness and understanding of the system.

For example, while I generally spend most of my energy on the longer-form waves. It is absolutely important to zoom in and out — to pinpoint where you are across time scales on the different waves. And in investing, it’s even more important to understand your own time horizon and align your expectations and investments accordingly.

• is excellent on this front.

Another example, while I have deep experience in the Technology sphere, notably Semiconductors, I have not spent as much time at the bottom of the filter within the Money Pillar — delving into the intricacies of precious metals exploration and mining companies.

• is a great resource here.

The list goes on. From on the Liquidity mapping side, to on the Semiconductor technical specifics, to on what the stock charts are ‘saying.’

These high quality, vetted and trusted resources all plug into the Pillars of Power framework — leveraging their specialized curated knowledge, while enabling me to focus my attention and resources on the ‘big’ things.

And all of this can be as simple or as complex as you choose.

THE PILLARS OF POWER — CREATION & INFLECTION

The power of the Pillars of Power as a portfolio is not happenstance.

The Pillars of Power were created as a result of the search for a durable portfolio that works across History.

In studying markets, History and hegemonic cycles with a first-principles, incentives-focused lens, these Pillars — Technology, Energy, & Money — kept popping up. At first in an overly complicated ‘hazy’ way, but eventually distilled into a simpler, clearer framework.

Constructs like the 60/40 portfolio or thoughtless target-date funds are ephemeral at best, and generally counter-productive. Aberrations for a small slice of history. Simplistic outputs designed for asset gathering and fee generation, not absolute returns.

Those ‘strategies’ may have worked for a time. But they certainly do not work across time. They are linearly optimized for a System that no longer exists. They are rigid, fragile, and static, not resilient, adaptable, and dynamic — like a Natural System. There is a reason Nature and it’s principles sit at the foundation of my focus — biomimicry-inspired strategies and analyses.

Just as the Fed is operating backwards, seeking to preserve the old System that is ending. These linearly optimized constructs in Sharpe World are built for a period that no longer exists.

In fact, it never really naturally ‘existed’ — they just made sure to print money to preserve the illusion of it’s existence and their related ‘power.’

And those designing and funneling your money into these ‘constructs’ do not have your best interests in mind — incentives are not aligned. If you or someone you know is still allocating in this un-natural or ‘outdated’ way, I’d recommend checking out a report, a podcast, or this piece.

And all of this goes a lot deeper within the financial — Money creating and allocating — world. I spent a lot of time on this in the Stock Market Ownership & Control fractal — delving into the mechanisms that actually drive markets ( a go-to here), along with the downstream implications.

Private Equity is another ‘aberration’ — it has evolved into a volatility-laundering strategy that worked incredibly well while interest rates went straight down (1981 through 2020) and capital was printed to bail out capital (QE infinity).

Now we have more PE shops than McDonalds in the US. Top anyone?

And this ‘warning’ also applies to many of the underlying market assumptions:

These ‘assumptions’ apply to slivers of cherry-picked History, almost never take into account inflation, and generally have only been ‘tested’ on the last ~40 years of data — during one, US-led hegemonic System.

Now that System is evolving:

• Tariffs - the wake-up call, ending the old System and beginning to build the New

• New System - built in parallel over the last year, with many signposts

• Strait Closure - the beginning of the hand-off point

These publications came out well ahead of any centralized, manipulated media.

Never in our lifetimes has there been a more important time to get the big things right.

This is a live experience of what Lenin was talking about:

The water we are swimming in is changing.

We spend a lot of time thinking about the System itself — the ‘water’ everyone is swimming in and typically unaware of. And for many stretches of history, it does not ‘pay’ to be aware of the underlying System – for decades at a time it is established and linearly optimized with small adjustments. No real need to spend a lot of time/energy on it.

But for certain periods – characterized by non-linear change – it is critical to pay attention to the underlying System. To become aware of how it works, why it works that way, and how to shape it going forward.

Now is one of those times.

— Power & Pendulums (Part I)

History rhymes, it does not repeat exactly. Context and sequencing matter — particularly when undergoing phase transitions and nonlinear foundation changes.

just published a video and piece along similar lines: Investing During War and Uncertainty

The Pillars of Power framework was built with the principles of Nature to work across time, but proves particularly useful at a unique time like this:

BALANCE

Hopefully this piece provides a useful glimpse into the Pillars of Power ‘application’ layer at the portfolio level — from a super simple 3-position starting point, to a more asymmetrically-focused down-the-funnel intentional expression.

And paired with the content over the last year — notably the Pillars of Power newsletter ‘applications’ (e.g., The Arctic) — now a slightly more complete view of the power of the Pillars of Power.

• Qual-itative — the ‘intuition’ behind why the framework helps explain the world over time, with a focus on foundational incentives; helping direct your energy

• Quant-itative — the ‘science’ behind why the framework may work as a portfolio, with a focus on the balancing, self-reinforcing Pillars; helping harness your money

The process is not purely systematic or purely discretionary.

In a world of extremes, I choose balance.

My focus tends to sit at the balance point between Qualitative and Quantitative. Art and Science. Human and Machine.

Dialectics, like Yin and Yang, Dark and Light: complementary opposites, distinct yet interdependent forces that create a complete picture of reality through contrast and interaction.

Peaks and Troughs of the same wave. The more Taboo the better.

Nature seeks balance, and so do I.

None of this is perfect. And the process is never ‘complete.’

But The Pillars of Power provide useful scaffolding.

The Pillars provide the material structure (house; being), which creates the immaterial space (inner space; non-being).

The true power comes from the space that it creates, the time that it frees up. The ‘new’ energy that is able to move more fluidly and naturally.

The Pillars have proven to be a useful foundational tool for me — a structure that frees up time, space, and energy. Now the basics are available and free to use — empowerment over engagement.

And a key point in all of this is using this or any structure in preparing to act. So then you are confident in acting intentionally when the timing is right for you.

Internally driven, not externally controlled.

With rising external chaos and dis-order, it’s helpful to find a structure to help contain and order the rising entropy.

This piece provided further insight into the foundation layer.

A tier of future content will begin to focus more on building on top of the foundation, using the Pillars structure at the portfolio application layer — more inverted pyramids, optimization layers, and bottom-of-the-funnel ideas at the Confluence.

Still a few more foundational pieces and process deep-dives to go, but I’ve already begun laying out some portfolio ‘pieces’ via Notes.

If this is something you are interested in — let me know via a like, comment or otherwise. Or if you know someone who may be interested — share it.

More to come…

If you enjoy the content, subscribe.

Subscribe now

If it is useful, share.

Share

Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

Deep-dives: Substack

Short notes: Substack notes

Videos & Podcasts: YouTube

Tweets: X

Website: AquaVis

Disclosures

This commentary has been prepared by AquaVis Advisors LLC (“AquaVis”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does it constitute investment advice or a recommendation to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, AquaVis makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

Any opinions or estimates expressed reflect personal views as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider this material as only one input in their decision-making process and should obtain independent financial, legal, and tax advice before making any investment decisions.

Investing in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and may be affected by changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, credit conditions, and the price or volatility of underlying assets. Certain investments may be speculative and are not suitable for all investors.

AquaVis may, from time to time, have long or short positions in securities or other financial instruments mentioned and may transact in such instruments without further notice.

Unlike many newsletters which have a short shelf life, the content thus far is designed to have a long shelf life — ideally providing enduring value well past the published date.

So, even if you’re just joining the community now, the repository of work over the last year is still highly relevant and worth checking out — hence the impetus for the guide below to help you navigate.

Most of the pieces thus far have been focused on laying the foundation for future pieces.

All of the pieces are interconnected.

Let’s walk through how.

Starting with the framework and process…

BACKGROUND, FRAMEWORK, & PROCESS

• Framework

  • A quick snapshot of the AquaVis framework to provide a look into the process

• The Pillars of Power

  • An overview of the Pillars of Power — the layer that sits right atop the baseline framework and the filter through which I view the world

• The Pillars of Power - An Introduction

  • A quick overview of the world backdrop and how everything is changing, paired with the purpose and background of AquaVis (including the 5 Ws), and some suggestions around content navigation

• About AquaVis

  • Quick background on AquaVis, from experience to principles and more — including companion materials like a podcast and video

• The Way of AquaVis

  • The flow and focus of AquaVis through the lens of the Tao — The Timeless Art of Dot Connecting

And now — using the knowledge and frameworks above — moving on to analyzing the System itself — the ‘water’ we all have been swimming in, but are generally ‘unaware’ of…

A WALK THROUGH OF THE (OLD) SYSTEM — FROM BIRTH TO DEATH

These pieces are all laid out in a logical chronological order to enable seamless dot-connecting and a clear perspective of the chain of events — sequencing matters.

The following Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny series is meant to help provide both a first-principles perspective and a lens to help understand the ‘System’ in a compressed amount of time.

Starting with it’s birth — how we got here:

• The System Series: Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny (Part I)

  • The birth and rise of the US-led System, starting post-WWII through ~2000

• The System Series: Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny (Part II)

  • The degradation and beginning of the end of the (old) US-led System, from ~2000 through 2024 — this piece and the one above are foundational, and then flow into the multiple Part III pieces below

• The System Series: Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny (Part III) - Corporates

  • A deep-dive look into the world today from the Corporate perspective — from the Financialization Flywheel favoring Capital, to the stifling of innovation to serve incumbents

• The System Series: Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny (Part III) - Stock Market Ownership & Control

  • A deep-dive look into the world today from the Stock Market ownership and control lens — from the power of passive and the related asset managers, to the root understanding of who really ‘controls’ the markets

• The System Series: Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny (Part III) - Stock Market Composition

  • A deep-dive look into the world today from the Stock Market Composition perspective — everything from the record concentration in US indices today, to the much deeper Concentration Cascade at multiple levels, from geography to Technology (AI) and more

• The System Series: Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny (Part III) - Society

  • A deep-dive look into the world today from a Societal lens — everything from why dogs now outnumber kids in the US, to the unaffordability crisis facing younger generations, to the war over your mind and attention

• The System Series: Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny - User Guide

  • This is a great, simple guide that walks through all of the pieces above. I realize my labeling can be confusing, so this is to help clarify.

• The System Series: Power & Pendulums (Part I)

  • While not part of the Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny series, this is the beginning of the next series — highlighting how those in Power manipulated the System itself to serve themselves (a great complement to Part II from D, D, & D)

So the above series walks through the end-to-end progression of the now old System — from it’s birth, to it’s rise, peak, degradation, and ultimately it’s end. Culminating with a deep-dive, multi-part ‘zoomed in’ analysis of the downstream outputs — from wealth inequality to stock market concentration to National Security vulnerabilities — we see manifesting today: The Unsustainably Imbalanced System. And a look into how those in Power pushed those pendulums to extremes — manipulating the System itself for themselves at the expense of the collective.

The above section essentially spans from 1945 through ~2025. This all flows neatly into the catalyst ending the old — unsustainably imbalanced — System and the emergence of the New…

THE END OF THE OLD SYSTEM & THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW SYSTEM

The above highlights how we got to where we are today — the very clearly unsustainably imbalanced System.

The below highlights how every thing is now changing…

• The System Series: Tariffs (Part I)

  • An overview of the unsustainably imbalanced System — flowing nicely from the Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny series — and why change is necessary

• The System Series: Tariffs (Part II)

  • A deep-dive into the true purpose(s) of Tariffs: to change the System itself, as it has consistently undermined its architect (the US and the majority within) for decades — which is why I was confident signaling the end of the old System in early 2025

This section essentially focuses on the 1H of 2025. Paired with the Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny series, the two ‘Tariffs’ pieces above provide critical end-to-end context and sequencing for how we got here, why everything must change, and a framework for where we are likely headed…

LAYING THE FOUNDATION FOR THE NEW SYSTEM

If the old System it ending, something must take it’s place — order to disorder, to order once again. Tariffs (Part II) lays out some of the foundational framework of the New System that’s being built in parallel. The below pieces delve deeper — analyzing everything from the agendas of the main competing hegemons (US & China), to the key spheres of focus, and beyond.

We are still in that interim period of dis-order — a time in between two Systems — as the US and China each attempt to strengthen their respective Pillars of Power and build leverage to ‘control’ the New World Order. But for those paying attention and connecting the dots, the building blocks are quite clear — and the Pillars of Power lens helps filter signal from noise:

• PoP: US & The Trump Agenda

  • A look into the focus of the current Trump Agenda, reshaping the US and it’s Pillars of Power

• PoP: China & The Xi Agenda

  • A look into both the history and current focus of the Xi Agenda, building a hegemon in China (paired with it’s own allies) to challenge the US in Cold War 2.0 for control over the New World Order

• PoP: US & China - Connecting the Dots

  • Tying together loose ends and relevant updates pertaining to Cold War 2.0 between the two hegemons — US & China — vying for Power and control over the Global World Order

• PoP: The Arctic & Its Rising Importance

  • A deep-dive into the importance of the Arctic (including Greenland) — a critical new sphere within Cold War 2.0 for a multitude of reasons

• PoP: Elon Musk & His Rising Importance

  • A deep-dive into the rising importance of Elon Musk and his related companies — notably from a National Security perspective from the US/West — all through the Pillars of Power lens

• PoP: The Middle East & The Emergence of a New System

  • A dive into a (very) brief history of the US/Middle East, and how the multiple US/Middle East deals in mid-2025 set the template for the New System —signaling the rising emergence of the parallel New System

• PoP: Space & The New Frontier

  • A deep-dive into Space — another critical sphere within Cold War 2.0 between the US/China (and each sides respective allies), and one that unsurprisingly includes all of the Pillars of Power

• PoP: US & The Trump Agenda - 6 Months In

  • An updated view on the Trump Agenda — everything from what was accomplished in the first 6 months, to where the focus was likely to be for the next 6 months and beyond

• PoP: US & China - A Brief Update on Cold War 2.0

  • An update on Cold War 2.0 between the US & China — taking a look at what has transpired and the respective Pillars of Power and related vulnerabilities for each side

• PoP: US & China - Important Perspective on Cold War 2.0

  • Useful background on the progression of the rise of China, and a deeper look into their Pillars of Power today

• PoP: The Multi-Decade Quiet War & The System Phase Transition (Part I)

  • This piece walks through how adversaries, co-opted elite, and greedy incumbents corrupted the old System. And how US leadership began to wake up, build a New System, and start the System ‘phase’ transition process

• PoP: The Multi-Decade Quiet War & The System Phase Transition (Part II)

  • Building off of Part I, this delves into the Trump Admin’s re-building of the US’ Pillars of Power in conjunction with architecting the New System — specifically connecting dots across the Admin’s Policies and Actions, and highlighting how the old to New System transition is here

This section essentially spans 2025 into early 2026… a lot happened, and a lot more is coming…

APPLICATION LAYERS

The foundational content above is meant to help orient you in the World — to understand the System and its flows.

The foundational framework — The Pillars of Power — is meant to help you order your mind — to better direct your attention (your flowing energy).

On top of these foundational layers, there are additional application layers — notably to help harness your money…

• The Pillars of Power Portfolio

  • The foundational Pillars of Power framework ‘doubles’ as a naturally balanced portfolio. This piece walks through how the Pillars provide the foundation off of which to build a durable portfolio — the structure, and you choose to how fill it out. More content to come here…

COMPANION PIECES, NOTES, & MINDSET

To help further explore all of the content above, with the assistance of technology, I’ve also built out companion multimedia materials for a lot of the content above (more to come). The companion materials include everything from videos, to audio podcasts, to infographics, slide decks, and X threads — all to help better understand and explore the ‘centerpiece’ core content. You can find all of the Companion materials here:

• Companion Materials

  • Companion multimedia materials - video, audio, infographic, slide deck, & thread - to help further explore our deep-dive written content (Newsletter & Whitepapers)

In addition, I often publish short Notes around key events, quick thoughts, relevant podcasts and a lot more:

• AquaVis Notes

  • Short notes often highlighting where I am directing my attention, referencing relevant pieces and related content, and/or recommending curated experts

And finally, it’s key to have perspective on where your information is coming from, notably as external sources and feedback mechanisms have been corrupted:

• Media, Markets, & Mindset

  • A lens with which to view the world — shift from relying upon mis-aligned external sources, toward the internal and internally-resonating ones

So that’s a quick overview of what’s already been published. Plenty to explore — the sooner the better, because there is more to come…

THE FUTURE

While I’m still wrapping up a few loose ends around foundational pieces, content from here will primarily be focused on the future — giving intentional attention to the New System that is taking shape. And with it, I will begin to publish ‘layers’ of actionable pieces — from higher level suggestions on where to direct attention (flowing energy), down to more detailed thoughts around capital (stored energy) — all to help better position for and shape the future.

Time to build.

If you enjoy the content, subscribe.

Subscribe now

If it is useful, share.

Share

Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

Deep-dives: Substack

Short notes: Substack notes

Videos & Podcasts: YouTube

Tweets: X

Website: AquaVis

We’ve generally been ‘trained’ to look to the external for information and validation for our decisions.

But what happens when the external is corrupted via broken feedback mechanisms and/or misaligned incentives?

MEDIA IS MANIPULATED

External evaluation #1, the media: Is mainstream media a trustworthy source?

I think that’s a pretty clear no, and most seem to agree.

Notice how this is essentially a straight line down since ~2000 — right as the mindset shifted from growth toward scarcity. Right as the System began to serve the minority at the expense of the majority. We covered the details behind why in Part II of Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny and laid out the downstream impacts to Society in Part III: The Society Fractal.

Even the old (Boomers) — who the System serves at the expense of the young — have started to lose faith in the mass media.

Simply, the centralized media has been manipulated to serve the few in power at the expense of the majority. People want to be respected, and want truth — instead we’ve been lied to and gaslit. So most people are logically moving toward Substack, podcasts and other decentralized forms of media in pursuit of truth. It’s difficult to operate as a society without a shared truth. When you open mindedly hear the truth, it resonates — “I know it when I see (or hear) it.”

My view is the divide today is not right vs. left, but New vs. Old, Forward vs. Backward.

The divide today is not left right, up down, purple pink or otherwise – it is New vs. Old, Future vs. Past, Forward vs. Backward as Dr Pippa recently said. — Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny (Part II)

It is not really left vs. right, Democrat vs. Republican, or whatever flavor or label you want to throw out there. It is much simpler:

• Those who want to embrace change and build a New System that serves the majority

• Those who want to preserve the old System that now serves the minority

— Power & Pendulums (Part I)

The majority want shared truth and progress with a growth mindset — where the pie is expanding and everyone is better off. But the few are clinging to the scarcity mindset — using fear to confuse, complicate, and control — shrinking the pie and selfishly indulging in ever larger slices.

The theme of the risk of unelected, unaccountable, centralized control continues to come up across layers:

While Janet certainly did not orchestrate this on her own, the reason we spend time on her is because of her extended tenure at critical institutions controlling the Money Pillar over this period of pure of Money Pillar degradation. And because she exemplifies a multitude of issues in the broader System:

• Unelected — simply appointed to these positions

• Unaccountable — no repercussions for poor decisions; no feedback loop

• Rising Centralized Control — as the power of the Federal Reserve (and Treasury) rose over this period of USD network expansion, so did the power of this small, unelected, unaccountable group

This highlights the risk of rising centralized Decision-making with no feedback mechanism to self-regulate — poor decisions, whether mal-intentioned or not, by the few impact the many and there is no accountability. These Decisions flow all the way through the System — the ripple effects are widely visible today, and represent fractals of these foundational Policies. And this also highlights how it does not take an entire generation to be corrupted to negatively impact the System — painting the Boomers or any generation with a broad brush is not fair (not the intention of this piece).

Think about how powerful these ‘elite’ positions are and how dangerous inserting a corrupted, adversary-aligned individual into one of these seats is— this is a chokepoint, a vulnerability to the System. There is a reason most hegemonic Systems collapse due to hubris — adversaries are intelligent and systematically ‘attack’ these chokepoints (see Energy Pillar exploitation in the 1970s from Part I).

A true Natural System is built to be resilient and adaptable — no single fail points and no moral hazard; there are negative consequences for poor decisions (i.e., firing or removal), a feedback mechanism driving re-balancing and adaptation. The destruction of the feedback loop destroyed the integrity of the System — Nature was not allowed to flow.

Concentrated centralized mass media is no different. The Concentration Cascade, all the way down — self-similar fractals all stemming from the root.

While this chaos and corruption can be disorienting, all of it is common during certain periods in history. The extremity may vary, but the themes of the loss of trust in institutions, the polarity in society, the wealth divide and more are all characteristic of Fourth Turnings — ’s work on Demographics is a key input into my framework.

Studying history helps prepare and provide perspective — an awareness and a framework to help navigate the chaos. This time is unequivocally different — with unique context and sequencing — but understanding the rhythm and the rhymes removes some of the ‘surprise’ and enables proactive preparation.

The corruption and manipulation of mass media is one of those rhymes; it’s not surprising, but it is important to be aware of. Mass media as a ground source of truth and/or an independent evaluation mechanism is clearly broken.

What about the markets?

MARKETS ARE BLIND

External evaluation #2, the markets: Are markets an effective feedback mechanism?

On whether markets today should be solely or heavily used to dictate important decisions — my view is generally no, for a few reasons. Starting with mindset, over the last 25 years we’ve shifted toward scarcity and short-termism: selfish decisions driven by short-term greed over the long term impact and opportunity. This mindset shift was driven by Policies from the top. But now it’s filtered into everything — notably markets. And as a result markets are very short-term focused and not necessarily reflective of whether decisions are in the best interests of the long-term and/or the collective (in the case of a country). Simplistically, you may be chasing your tail if you just listen to short-term market perturbations. This applies at an individual level, a corporate level, and a country level.

Additionally, my view is markets do not necessarily reflect reality or the collective vote in the short-term because of the mechanisms now driving markets. Markets today are primarily driven by a thoughtless passive machine:

Passive allocation mechanism: a pro-cyclical feedback loop where every dollar of new inflow is mathematically forced to purchase stocks in exact proportion to their current market cap — regardless of valuation — effectively turning the market into a “blind” momentum machine that pushes prices higher based on flows rather than fundamentals. — Part III - Stock Market Ownership & Control

I’ve written extensively about this, but the simple point is, on the margin, there is very limited active, intentional discernment going into capital allocation in public markets. More than 100% of incremental capital going into markets is allocated via passive, and all passive does is buy the constituents of the index in proportion to the their relative size. More simply — passive just mindlessly buys whatever is largest and going up.

That puts a big ‘burden’ on the index makers — more unelected, unaccountable, centralized control and single points of failure, with questionable results. And it cascades much deeper — from concentrated stock market ownership, to concentrated stock market control and beyond.

All of this not only has massive implications for the downstream stock market composition (The Concentration Cascade), but it severely damages the market information feedback mechanism itself — hence degrading the quality of the feedback you receive from the market. The market ‘feels’ detached from the ‘real world’ because it is detached from the real world. So not only are markets overly short-term, but the quality of the feedback mechanism itself is degraded — leaving markets, and often participants, ‘blind.’ Another recurring theme of impaired feedback mechanisms breaking Systems…

Both the stock market allocation mechanism and the resultant stock market composition are more important than ever to understand. Today there is what I call the Concentration Cascade — concentration and inherent fragility at every layer, notably within the control and composition of US indices. These two pieces — Stock Market Ownership & Control and Stock Market Composition — provide a simple walk through of both the stock market allocation mechanism and the resultant composition — highly recommended reading. Outsourcing your attention, your thinking, and/or your capital allocation without this foundational awareness is dangerous. The time for unquestioned assumptions and blind passivity is over.

This does not mean markets should not be used as an input for decisions. But the awareness of how markets have changed and what most participants are incentivized toward is critical — again, Context is king. Blindly relying upon markets will lead to short-term driven decisions and tail chasing, given how the Policies from the top have transformed the mechanism over the last 25+ years. Hence, my concern on relying heavily on markets for important decisions — from strategic projects at the corporate level, to war at the sovereign level (a conversation which inspired this piece).

And yet, despite all of this, levered exposure to US equity indices is at all-time highs at exactly the most dangerous time:

As likes to say:

Know what you own. Understand the incentives. Study how the system functions.

Assumptions like ‘they are experts, they know best’ or ‘they have my best interests in mind’ should be deeply examined — from the media to markets and more. This ‘outsourcing’ and passivity may have been fine 30 years ago while the System was still being linearly optimized with marginal changes, but today every thing is changing.

Context is king.

MINDSET MATTERS

With many of the external sources (media) and evaluation mechanisms (markets) compromised and/or degraded, it is best to begin with the internal.

Sounds fluffy. But, when you step away from the noise (#Nature), your inner intuition is powerful. There is a reason why ‘you know it when you see it,’ why when you hear something and it resonates you ‘know’ it’s true, why ‘the smell test’ often works as a useful filter. It is difficult (impossible?) to fake authenticity.

Common sense has become un-common because most people are caught up in the noise — dis-connected from themselves (the internal). Media, markets, and general mayhem are meant to speed things up, create distractions — confuse, complicate, and control.

Isn’t it an amazing feeling when you slow down, step back, re-connect, and things ‘naturally’ fall into place?

If mindset could create this mess, why can’t it fix it?

To re-highlight both the power and importance of mindset, simply observe the downstream effects of the root decisions over the last 25+ years. Those in power had a marked mindset shift around 2000 away from abundance, collective, long term, and toward scarcity, self, short-term.

After decades of the old System and those in charge catering to the Boomers as they moved through the System (see Part I), now the Boomers took charge (graph above) – and they (those in power positions) chose to keep the focus on themselves – choosing the self/short-term end of the continuum. Simplistically, as Boomers became Capital, Capital was favored. Thus, the aforementioned mindset shift, away from collective, abundance, and long-term, toward selfish, scarcity, short-termism — the three S’s that underlie the mindset and Policy of the subsequent decades. — Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny (Part II)

They enacted Policies reflecting that mindset, which have flowed through, shaped, and permeated society — you see it everywhere, from day trading levered options and betting on what color tie Bob will be wearing on air, to the destruction of dating and the rise of Onlyfans.

It’s a devolution that corrupted the foundation then expanded, and now the system itself both embodies and reflects the scarcity mindset. The system itself is now fragile and rigid, instead of resilient and adaptable — all covered in detail in many of the Part III fractals, notably the piece on Society.

Needless to say, National Security priorities trump Luxury Consumption – don’t think a 0dte option holds much weight in the battlefield. Controlling Money absolutely does enable a layer of Control – it is unequivocally a Pillar of Power. But when the Money is not backed by any sustainable Physical Power – via asymmetric Technology, Productive Capacity to Build it, and Energy to Power it – it’s empty. Always work from First Principles; the Foundation. If you don’t have food, water, shelter, and safety – do you really need 15 different day trading apps for Fartcoin? Take a second (ideally more) to just think. What the Money is for. Where the Money is being allocated. Power Posturing and Deterrence are empty threats if you do not have the means (Productive Capacity) to enforce them. Where Money flows will dictate the Power Peking Order for the decades ahead – don’t expect to see another 12 dog apps get funding; do expect to see the construction of massive robotics factories. — Tariffs (Part II)

Few are aware of the ‘water,’ because they are caught up in the noise.

The degradation and corruption of both media and markets stem from the mindset shift. And thus, the solution begins with shifting the mindset again.

My point on bringing this up is, whether it’s the ongoing Middle East conflict, rising internal civil discord, or China potentially acting on Taiwan, it’s critical we fix the foundational mindset — back toward growth, collective, long-term. To reunify society, rebuild hope, and rebuild resilience. Adversaries know the only way to defeat the US is to divide the US — both internally (via polarization) and externally (via spread out conflicts). And no better way to divide the US than with a foundational narrative of a shrinking pie (scarcity) where everyone is fighting over a smaller slice — exactly what was implanted back in 2000 and has spread since. A growing pie where everyone is better off is absolutely an opportunity, but it requires a foundational mindset shift — movement along the wave, out of the trough.

From the inability to focus your attention to the inability to tolerate pain, society has become weaker partially because of this mindset shift. And adversaries have exploited and continue to exploit this fragility, weakness, and ‘learned’ comfort. Contrast provides Perspective. To appreciate success, you must experience failure; to feel hot, you must embrace cold; to know light, you must see dark. Pendulums must shift, starting with the mindset.

The way to begin to fix both the functioning mechanisms and downstream trust of media and markets starts with mindset.

Mindset sits at the foundation. Mindset is the problem and the solution. The dialectic at work.

THE PATH FORWARD

The Demographics, Decisions, & Destiny series explores how and why the System has become both imbalanced and corrupted — particularly Part II, as well as the related multiple downstream fractals captured in the multi-part Part III. And this piece explores some of the practical implications of these downstream systemic outputs.

Sources from mass media to markets are largely broken (or at the very least degraded) as effective inputs and feedback mechanisms. And, as Nature has shown, systems do not work without functioning feedback mechanisms.

The simplistic point — stop looking to the external to validate. Turn off the centralized media.

The era of unquestioned assumptions and blind passivity is over. Fully outsourcing your attention, your thinking, and/or your capital allocation is dangerous.

Few seem to recognize the most important ongoing battle of all is the battle over your mind. Your attention. Your energy.

‘Adversaries’ want you to stay asleep.

Most are still asleep – lulled into a trance by the propaganda of the East and the Short-Termism and manufactured Noise of the West.

If you do not wake up, you are sleepwalking into the Arms of Autocracy – fully handing over your Control and Freedom… in exchange for cheaper TVs – ‘let them eat flat screens.’ Tariffs are the overdue Wake Up Call.

Time to wake up.

Become aware. Go within — the internal. Follow your intuition. Listen to what resonates. And to help in that process, curate your sources.

You are the quality of your inputs. Root out the noise, the attention ‘suckers,’ the engagement machines built off of virality and addiction.

Avoid those seeking to ‘capture’ your attention, holding it hostage — seeking to control with complexity and fear.

Focus on those seeking to nourish your attention, striving for enlightenment and empowerment over mindless and often polarizing engagement.

Curate curate curate.

Engage in con-structive discourse instead of de-structive dismissal.

Enough diffusion, can-kicking, and symptom band-aiding — take accountability, fix the root.

Awareness → Understanding → Empowerment → Better Decisions → Brighter Future

Time to build.

If you enjoy the content, subscribe.

Subscribe now

If it is useful, share.

Share

Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

Deep-dives: Substack

Short notes: Substack notes

Videos & Podcasts: YouTube

Tweets: X

Website: AquaVis

In the beginning, there is clarity.

AquaVis arises not as a reaction, but as a return—

A return to essence, to stillness, to the uncarved block.

In a world of chaos, we order the mind.

We do not chase the urgent, nor bow to the algorithm.

We listen, deeply, for what endures.

2. The Taste of Discernment

Taste is the invisible hand that guides us.

It is not loud, nor does it seek applause.

It is the quiet resonance of coherence—

The throughline that threads our work, our words, our world.

To possess taste is to curate with care,

To remove the non-essential until only the true remains.

AquaVis is the taste test,

The filter that lets only the worthy pass.

3. The Art of Curation

Curation is care.

It is attention, distilled.

We do not regurgitate; we select.

We do not amplify the fleeting; we honor the enduring.

AquaVis is not a feed, but a garden—

Tended, pruned, and shaped with intention.

What we share is not just what we consume,

But how we consume—

With patience, with respect, with soul.

4. The Flow of Nature

AquaVis flows like water—

Calm, balanced, in tune with nature’s rhythm.

We do not force; we do not rush.

We trust the process of distillation,

Letting clarity emerge from the stillness.

We seek alignment—of mind, of energy, of intention.

In our work, as in our lives,

We honor the space between,

The silence that gives meaning to sound.

5. The Enduring Thread

In an infinite sea of information,

Attention is our most precious resource.

What we attend to shapes who we become.

AquaVis is the thread of common sense—

The signal builder, the dot connector,

The calm in the storm of short-termism.

We prepare, we discern, we refuse to compromise.

We are creators and curators,

Sharpening our discernment,

Teaching the world to treat our attention with respect.

6. The Way Forward

AquaVis is not a fad; it is a practice.

A practice of listening, of distilling, of aligning.

We remove the clutter,

We honor the essential,

We cultivate taste as a form of self-respect.

In this, we find fulfillment—

The art of living well,

The clarity without ego,

The resonance that endures.

This is The Way of AquaVis:

To be clear-minded, coherent, and congruent.

To curate with care, to connect with intention.

To flow with nature, to honor taste.

To build trust, to endure.

To know what matters—

And to help others see it, too.

This is what AquaVis strives for…

Based on Lao Tzu

Inspired by Rick Rubin & Stepfanie Tyler

Adapted by AquaVis

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

In studying history, we recognized the Pillars of geostrategic Power are consistent across time:

• Asymmetric Technology

• Powered by low-cost and abundant Energy

• Financed by fully-controlled Money

The hegemon(s) who leads in these three key spheres controls the World Order.

The collective, self-reinforcing Pillars of Power have stood the test of time. And they provide a consistent framework for understanding the World and the decisions that shape it — with the lust for Power as an underlying driving force.

Never has this been more relevant than today. The World System is in flux. We are at the confluence of multiple converging cycles (Backdrop) driving an acceleration in change, noise, and disorder.

Don’t let this chaos overwhelm you. Change provides opportunity for the prepared.

We help order the perceived chaos in the external world — acting as a filter so you can focus on what matters.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

BACKGROUND

Who

• We are a team with deep experience across Technology and Investing, driven by complex problem-solving and foundational truth-seeking (Story)

What

• We seek to simplify the complex — connecting the seemingly disparate dots across the foundational Pillars of Power (Products)

When

• Now. We are at an inflection point in history (Backdrop). Decisions made today will have ripple effects for decades to come

Where

• Here. Explore our Website and Substack for more information

Why

• The System uses manufactured complexity to drive confusion and increase control

  • We seek to simplify to empower — returning Power back to individuals

• The World is filled with widespread groupthink, increasing noise, and rising chaos

  • We write to flesh out and order our own thoughts. Our independent, first-principles based framework helps filter out the unnecessary, connect disparate dots, and distill orderly insights — synthesizing the perceived disorder

• Your Time, Energy, and Attention is invaluable. Take Control

  • We focus on enlightenment, not engagement

• Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.

How

• We Curate Experts. We Connect Dots. We Distill Truth.

• We Study the Past. Observe the Present. Imagine the Future.

• Nature is the perfect design — we utilize its underlying principles and intelligence to shape our thinking and design our Products (Framework)

SITE & CONTENT NAVIGATION

Our Website provides additional background, ranging from:

• Who we are: Our Story

• What we do: Our Products

• Why we do it: The Backdrop

• How we do it: Our Framework

• How to connect: Our Contact

Our Substack contains our content, ranging from:

• Our Newsletter: Newsletter

  • Regular publication connecting the dots across Technology, Energy, & Money

• Our Whitepapers: Whitepapers

  • Irregular publications delving into the Global System, our Process, Nature Analogs and more

• Our Strategies: Cascade and Confluence

  • Strategies focused on capitalizing on the Pillars of Power

Share AquaVis

We study history to learn and apply this wisdom to the present and future. While history typically doesn’t repeat exactly, it often rhymes. And these natural, wave-like rhythms show up across society, markets, politics, technology across varying time scales.

Just as self-similar patterns — known as fractals — appear throughout Nature, similar patterns repeat at varied scales throughout markets and history. We seek to utilize this pattern recognition to capitalize on markets and proactively prepare for what is likely to come.

Designed with the principles of Nature — where fractals (e.g., rivers, trees), waves (e.g., ocean, sound), and cycles (e.g., seasons, life) are inherent — our framework breaks down the components of the overall system to help us better understand these patterns, why they repeat, where we likely are on these various waves, and the most likely path(s) ahead. A few of the most important macro-level frameworks we utilize are below:

• Demographics

  • Strauss-Howe Generational Theory & the Four Turnings

• Finance

  • Ray Dalio’s Short-Term & Long-Term Debt Cycles

• Empires

  • David Murrin’s Empire Life Cycle

• Geopolitics

  • Peter Zeihan’s Globalization & De-Globalization Framework

• Technology

  • Carlota Perez’s Technological Revolutions & Financial Capital and Kondratiev Waves

• Markets

  • Michael Howell’s Global Liquidity Cycle

We spend a lot of time curating the best thinkers in their respective fields, delving deeply into their research, thought processes, and track records, and ultimately adapting our learnings into our own framework — bundling the unbundled. We are not experts in each field, but by listening and utilizing this curation process, we can ‘stand on the shoulders of giants’ — using each as a building block to raise our awareness and understanding of the system.

Piecing together these often overlapping sub-system cycle frameworks — from Demographics to Technology — the bigger picture, longer timeframe backdrop becomes clearer. We map these multiple waves so we can better pinpoint where we are within each of the respective cycles and create a current holistic picture for the overall system (topic for another post).

We then use this long-cycle picture to understand the secular trends that are likely to be persistent for years, if not decades. The themes (and sub-themes) that come out of this analysis are then paired with our areas of expertise — this combination provides a filter for “where to fish” and helps us generate our overall Universe.

Our themes — and thus our strategies — revolve around the three major pillars or building blocks of Power that have been consistent across history: Technology, Energy, & Money. We delve into each sphere in a separate piece.

From here, we utilize a variety of qualitative and quantitative tools — from fundamental analysis to strategic positioning to technicals — to analyze the curated Universe. The customized versions of these tools are rooted in the mathematical principles found in Nature — from Fibonacci numbers, to Golden Primes, and Elliot Waves. And we apply the Natural sciences of Physics and Biology directly to better understand the intricacies of the complex adaptive system.

Generally, Physics helps us understand the dynamics of the market structure and system as a whole — particularly helpful for higher level idea generation and risk management. Biology helps us understand the competitive environment and the companies (‘organisms’) most likely to survive and thrive within the system — delving deeper to identify specific resilient and adaptable assets (‘Complexity Investing’). With this cross-discipline approach, rooted in the principles of Nature, we are better able to “listen” to what the system and its components are telling us, rather than impose our emotional and cognitive biases.

In addition, we overlay several of our other custom-built filters — from quality analysis to incentive alignment (critical principle of ours) — to narrow down the field even further. At the bottom of the funnel, the outputs are actionable ideas coupled with a better understanding of why. We ultimately look for ideas that are both at the confluence of our themes — the center of the Venn diagram — and at the bottom of the funnel.

Companion Materials

Explainer Video (also on YouTube):

Audio Podcast:

Infographic:

Slide Deck:

Aquavis Framework Overview

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Thread (X):

Technology

• Innovation to more efficiently create/extract/convert/transform/store Energy and/or save Time

Energy

• Base input into any system

Money

• Money (or Capital) as stored Energy (Dimensions of Labor/Energy and Time)

In studying History, we recognized the Pillars of geostrategic Power are consistent across time:

• Asymmetric Technology

• Powered by low-cost and abundant Energy

• Financed by fully-controlled Money

The hegemon(s) who leads in these three key spheres controls the World Order.

The collective, self-reinforcing Pillars of Power have stood the test of time. And they provide a consistent Framework for understanding the World and the decisions that shape it — with the lust for Power as an underlying driving force.

These three critical building blocks of Power are at an inflection point in History that will usher in significant change and shape the world for decades to come. Given each pillar's geostrategic importance, all of these evolutions and revolutions are taking place in a compressed time period – and change has shifted from a want to a must, exemplified by a recent National Security Strategy update. We believe we are at the confluence of the Fourth Turning, the end of a Long-Term Debt Cycle, and the ~beginning of a New World Order. With significant change and disruption, comes great opportunity. 

Global System Backdrop:

• Rising geopolitical tensions and global power struggle (see Peter Zeihan’s The End of the World is Just the Beginning)

  • Unipolar world moving toward multipolar world

  • Efficient supply chains moving toward resilient

• Aging demographics and wealth inequality (see Neil Howe’s The Fourth Turning is Here)

• Overleveraged Sovereign Governments (see Ray Dalio’s Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises)

• Challenges to the current Order and Empire (see David Murrin’s Life Cycle of Empires)

The Confluence of the above typically leads to:

• Rising labor and capital costs

• Rising energy and inflation costs

• Rising taxes

• Rising populism

• Rising conflicts 

Which Ultimately Forces an Acceleration in:

• Technology investment and innovation

• Energy investment and innovation

• Money printing and innovation

Overall, there is clearly imbalance within the system. After decades of Order (suppressed Entropy), we are beginning to see Disorder (rising Entropy). As is typical within Fourth Turnings, crisis and conflict often arise and drive an ultimate surge in peak disorder. As with any Natural system (constantly seeking balance), out of disorder comes order: a new system emerges. The rules of the new system are typically governed by those with the most subsequent Power – which we analyze via the aforementioned Pillars. 

Technology

For the Technology layer for this cycle, we are primarily focused on Artificial Intelligence (AI) – which is simplistically decomposed into Compute, Data, and Algorithms. Semiconductors are the base layer of the Compute engine – the ‘oil’ of Compute. Data is the critical input into Algorithms – the ‘oil’ of Algorithms. The Confluence of the three effectively composes AI – which will be the foundation layer to build on for the next decade+. AI allows you to more efficiently transform untapped data (energy) into actionable intelligence (value), to save you time and energy. As each Technology layer builds upon the last, the networks continue to get denser and accelerations of exponential growth opportunities arise – nonlinear growth is difficult for linear minds to fathom. The applications and use cases of AI will be innumerable and will become clearer as we progress through each phase. Overall, Technology is (or should be) always attempting to create abundance and non-zero sum outcomes. 

“While technology development has always been a critical defining force and while it is well known that whoever wins the technology war wins the economic, geopolitical, and military wars, this has never been truer than now, and China and the US are the leaders and big adversaries.”

-          Ray Dalio

Energy

For the Energy layer, we are focused on both next-generation energy sources and storage, as well as all of the building blocks that got us here. To power Technology, society, and life in general, you need Energy. The most powerful Nations are energy independent, have access to the lowest cost energy resources, and have abundant supply of these energy resources. On the supply slide, consistent baseload energy is critical, with nuclear as a current optimal source. Further, we constantly evaluate frontier technologies – notably, new ways to more efficiently capture, convert, and/or store cosmic energy. The demands for Energy continue to rise, with a notable increase in the West from reshoring, electrification, and AI. And, as Jevons Paradox highlights, as certain resources become cheaper we end up using more of them – seen with many forms of Energy, from oil to data.

Money

The Money layer refers primarily to the sustainable storage of Energy (Time/Labor transformed into Capital/Money), as well as its liquid exchange (i.e., commerce). Often overlooked, as many (notably in the US) fail to ever assess the ‘water in which they are swimming,’ Money is of critical importance as it relates to Power within a system. The monetary system is generally broken down into the price of Money (interest rates), the quantity of Money (absolute ‘liquidity’; often M2 as proxy), and the exchange rate (with most assets quoted in USD terms today). As an example, the US has a unique ability to print the currency in which it spends and owes debts – the USD system is one of America’s greatest sources of Power. We evaluate both the current centralized systems (i.e., Federal Reserve setting the price of money, Treasury and Banks primarily determining supply), as well as the emerging ~decentralized systems – notably blockchain-based systems like Bitcoin. We believe blockchain will be a critical underlying technology at the foundation of future systems. The Cascade strategy is specifically focused on this Money layer (leveraging Technology/AI as a tool). 

The confluence of leadership in the three pillars above creates Power. Energy is the basis of any system; Technology seeks to make Energy more abundant/efficient; Money stores Energy across Time. They are interconnected pillars with each reinforcing the others. The above descriptions are not exhaustive – we will post a separate, longer piece that delves deeper into the Confluence strategy and related backdrop.

We seek to understand each pillar via the basic building blocks of Energy, Time and resulting Value — so we will often use these terms across and within systems. For example, viewing both data and oil as forms of potential energy. We try to avoid getting into the typically fruitless semantics of any specific word or concept, but rather focus on the intention and essence. We highly value clear, concise language. 

Further, these three pillars of Power are all interrelated and inextricably woven together – for example, you need Energy to power data centers to run compute to transform data into actionable information… and leadership in AI powered by cheap Energy gives more Power and legitimacy to your Money system. Just as each tributary flows into the increasingly larger and more powerful river (confluence), each Energy source and Technology builds upon the prior foundation, ultimately creating denser networks – for example, the Internet built upon prior base infrastructure (e.g., telco/optical) which reduced the energy/time and cost to transport data. Time, Energy (Labor/Capital), and resultant Value are all fundamental building blocks that are interwoven across all and within each. The concept of ‘economic activity (or any activity) as energy transformed’ and/or ‘energy as the base layer of money’ are useful thought exercises… We will explore these concepts, the broader system (as it relates to all strategies), and more in future Whitepapers.