PoP: Space & The New Frontier
A Dive into the Importance of Space Security & the Exploration of Space Abundance
TOPIC: Space & The New Frontier
Many look at a map today and think the World has been fully explored and exploited – from the ‘discovery’ of the New World, to the push West; all Frontiers are presumed known, with no room for growth. But they are thinking in 2D. Look down – the unexplored depths of the Ocean. Look up – the vast expanse of Space. A 3D perspective reveals multiple Frontiers of Opportunity, and today we delve into Space – a strategic Frontier critical for Power…
TECHNOLOGY
As we highlighted in our Arctic piece, the Battle for AI Supremacy – ‘Space Race 2.0’ within Cold War 2.0 – is composed of multiple building blocks (Semiconductors, Compute, Data, Algorithms) across multiple spheres (Arctic, Space, Ocean).
AI is the ‘operating system’ that is both enabled by and accelerates the exploration of each of these spheres. And each sphere is a unique piece in the same overall Power puzzle. The Arctic contains critical (Ocean/Space) connectivity points, the Ocean houses the subsea cable backbone, and Space hosts constellations of satellites – a massive interconnected Network that is foundational for all Communications, notably interplanetary. These untapped Frontiers of Opportunity can be analyzed directly by the Pillars of Power Framework – we began with the Arctic, and now we move to the increasingly important sphere of Space.
The Battle for Power is clearly not relegated to Earth. In fact, Earth’s Security is deeply dependent upon Security in Space. There is a reason all of the biggest forward-looking Powers are keenly focused on Space: Control of Space = Control of Security. And to have a place in Space, let alone control it, you must invest and innovate in Technology to get you there.
Recent datapoints make it very clear the Leaders of the key Global Powers increasingly recognize this:
From our Arctic piece, Ukraine is reliant upon Starlink:
“For the West, this further highlights the rising importance of accelerating the deployment of Starlink satellites to both increase resilience and upgrade Technological capabilities (i.e., speed, bandwidth). And we’ve already seen a live example – with Ukraine dependent on Starlink for communications in the War, as their system was essentially destroyed early on.”
And to control Security, you must Control the Ocean, the Arctic, and Space:
“If you control Space, you control Warfare (or at least a key component of it). And to control Space, control of the Arctic (and Ocean) is critical.”
Trump signed the America First National Space Strategy back in 2018, and then went on to further highlight the importance of Space in his inaugural address: “And we will pursue our manifest destiny into the stars, launching American astronauts to plant the Stars and Stripes on the planet Mars.”
And then immediately followed that speech up with the executive order for The Iron Dome for America – to ‘deploy and maintain a next-generation missile defense shield’… to defend against ‘the threat of attack by ballistic, hypersonic, and cruise missiles, and other advanced aerial attacks’ – which led to the Senate Armed Services Committee introducing the IRONDOME Act – Increasing Response Options and Deterrence of Missile Engagements – in February to provide funding for said project.
This project has since evolved into the Golden Dome – which is ultimately a (better name) and a catch-all phrase covering integrated ground and Space-based systems that collectively comprise the comprehensive Space Defense Strategy. All tied to Space, at varying altitudes, this project includes AI-driven interceptors and constellations of satellite swarms for real-time Global coverage – for more on the specifics and technicals, check out this deep-dive interview.
Technological feasibility aside, this massive undertaking requires a lot of Money (classic Pillar interconnectivity; discussed more below). Ask and you shall receive. The Golden Dome for America just recently received initial funding from the One Big Beautiful Bill – iconically signed into law on July 4th – which allocates tens of billions of dollars towards the project, while also emphasizing the importance of Space-based manufacturing, satellite constellations, and Space-based energy systems.
In summary, Control of Space = Control of Communications = Control of War = Control of Security. Control is Strength; Lack of Control (Dependence) is Weakness.
The Golden Dome is the direct manifestation of a vision from years ago which once sounded (and maybe still sounds) in-credible, un-believable, Sci-Fi-esque. To build something of this magnitude and complexity, you need serious Talent, Technology, and Imagination... Enter, Elon Musk and SpaceX.
On the Space Technology front, no one is more important than Elon Musk. And no company is more important than SpaceX. Elon recognized early on that AI + Space is foundational for the Future – implicitly or explicitly connecting the dots and building interconnected businesses that ‘fill the gaps’ and build the present-to-future bridge. Our deep dive piece on Elon and his Businesses provides a fundamental background tying all of this together (key precursor reading if you have not). Today we dive deeper into SpaceX and its importance to National Security…
Punchline: SpaceX enables the underlying Technological feasibility of the Golden Dome; no SpaceX, no Golden Dome.
We began the SpaceX journey here:
SPACEX – founded by Elon Musk around the same time he took over Tesla – was created with the mission of transforming Space Technology and Travel. With a specific goal of essentially lowering the cost of Space Travel (Transportation subset?) by assessing the current structure and landscape – filled primarily with incumbents with little incentive to innovate – from First Principles… and maybe enabling Multiplanetary Life.
Similar to Tesla, SpaceX was built with an engineering-first mindset with the understanding that the lowest cost structure companies tend to have a significant advantage. And products designed and built from First Principles with Simplicity in mind tend to be best (e.g., iPhone on the consumer front) – exemplified by SpaceX’s Raptor engine evolution from complexity to simplicity over time.
SpaceX has innovated across many spheres – from reusable rockets and components (transforming the cost structure) to engine design to human spaceflight and multiplanetary living. And as we noted in our Arctic piece, the control over Space – from Rockets to Satellites to Planets and more – is critical for National Security purposes. And to control Space, you must have a physical presence in the Arctic (see Arctic piece for details; Space piece to come).
Jumping back to the connectivity angle, which is almost a byproduct of the broader mission. Starlink – SpaceX’s Low Earth Orbit Satellite-based high-speed Internet service – was borne out of an innovative approach to Satellite and Constellation design and has a vision of enabling constant Connectivity anywhere.
As noted above, Robots (whether a Vehicle, Humanoid, or your Phone) are not all that useful if they are not connected – both to the Internet and each other. A lone, isolated ant in a colony is not particularly useful – it must be connected and plugged into the colony to best optimize the broader organism. Starlink is that communication network solution that interconnects everything – most notably Tesla Vehicles and Humanoid Robots – to enable a fully Autonomous coordinated system of ‘ants.’
Overall, SpaceX - similar to Tesla - has multiple purposes across a variety of timelines: from the High Speed Communication Network and Connectivity of Robots, to the Control of Space, to the Exploration of Minerals and Life on other Planets.
And we continue it now.
SpaceX revolutionized the antiquated Aerospace market and its legacy procurement structure. Rather than accepting the lazy cost-plus industry standard – which was enriching all of the incumbents, while incentivizing them to do nothing (the longer development took and the more it cost, the higher the contractor's fees – a perverse incentive structure that encouraged bloated budgets and extended timelines) – they started from a First Principles foundation, built up the lowest-cost-structure model, and pioneered fixed-price, milestone-based contracts (putting financial risk on the companies rather than taxpayers).
To say this was transformational to the industry, the country, and the World would be an understatement.
And the subsequent results speak for themselves, starting with Satellites:
SpaceX controls nearly two-thirds of all active satellites and accounted for 87% of U.S. orbital launches in 2024 — 134 in total, up from 96 the year prior. That’s more than the rest of the world combined.
Starlink (SpaceX’s Satellite business) revenue doubled from $4 billion in 2023 to $8 billion in 2024, and is on track for $12B+ in 2025.
Satellite deployments are accelerating (Quantity up).
Technological bandwidth and speed are expanding (Quality up).
Unit costs are rapidly decreasing (Costs down).
And subscriptions are inflecting (Revenue up) – primarily concentrated in rural areas with otherwise poor coverage.
To get these Satellites into Space, you need low-cost, efficient and effective Rockets to transport them – an area which had experienced linear to no progress for decades.
Enter Falcon and the First-Principles based idea of Re-Usability: “Reusability allows SpaceX to refly the most expensive parts of the rocket, which in turn drives down the cost of space access.”
Unsurprisingly, the more you are able to use the Rockets.
The cheaper the per launch cost of each Rocket.
The reuse began with ‘easier,’ parts of the Rocket – i.e., the first stage booster. And ultimately culminated with the historic SpaceX Rocket ‘Catching’ (must watch) in October 2024, which will go down in History as one of the most important breakthroughs of the decade – expanding reusability to the upper stage (~full reusability), and driving a step-function cost reduction in Space access.
This event validated the full reusability of Rockets at scale – an innovation that was deemed impossible and intentionally ignored by incumbents:
“We don’t have any plans to look at reusability at all right now…The reality is that, for the next ten years, other than for Falcon, I don’t think any of us will look at this.”
Phil Slack, President of International Launch Services, 2014
The full reusability of Rockets changes everything – from Rocket design to cost – and dramatically accelerates the SpaceX self-reinforcing flywheel (mirroring Nature’s design), a version of which is illustrated below:
‘Beginning with cash, SpaceX builds rockets and satellites, generates orbital bandwidth, acquires Starlink customers, and reinvests the resulting cash. As the cycle continues, funds flow gradually toward Mars development until the Starlink constellation is complete. At that point, we assume that SpaceX goes “all-in” on Mars. Each Mars-bound rocket carries a mix of Optimus humanoid robots and materials. As Optimus costs decline and productivity improves over time, SpaceX builds its Mars “book value.’
The deeply ingrained focus on lowering the cost structure, while expanding the product Quality sits at the heart of the flywheel and its ultimate scalability.
These foundational Technologies form the base upon which to build the Future of Space:
Rockets. To bring Satellites et al. into Space, and eventually establish a Moon base.
Connectivity. Satellites forming the critical Communications layer.
Manufacturing. To build Space-based manufacturing, powered by AI + Robots.
Exploration. To eventually use the Moon as a base to expand to Mars and beyond.
And the Layers each build upon each other; maybe best understood when decomposed into:
Technology that helps us get TO Space – like Rockets.
Technology that helps us harness the Earth/Space connection – like Satellites, Drones, and Autonomous Vehicles.
Technology that is enabled BY Space – like Space-based Manufacturing, Data Centers, and Bio-Printing.
The first sphere is generally understood. The second is 50/50. And almost no one talks about the third.
Space is a New Frontier with ‘New’ Physics that provides New Opportunities. Zero-gravity, lower temperatures, and vacuum-like (clean) conditions provide the ideal environment for the Advanced Manufacturing of Products like Semiconductors, Pharmaceuticals, and Optical Fibers. The above also describes a near perfect backdrop for compute, heat, and Energy-intensive facilities like AI Data Centers. And AI itself helps us explore and evaluate these opportunities at record speed – why not have them co-located?
Energy-intensive, polluting heavy industry can be moved off planet and done more effectively and efficiently in Space. Brand new materials, processes, and products are quickly being discovered and invented in the New Space environment – critical timing as we hit physical limits on Earth within areas like Semiconductor Manufacturing (Moore’s Law slowing).
This is just scratching the surface. This once-relegated-to-Sci-Fi-book-discussion is a beautiful exercise in harnessing your Imagination (go talk to a kid if you’ve lost touch).
A Space-based Future where AI-enabled Robots connected to inter-planetary Networks operate automated Manufacturing facilities powered by the Sun is not Fantasy, or even Sci-Fi. It’s coming in the not-too-distant-Future (don’t have to believe us, believe Bezos).
And for those wanting to come back down to Earth, all of this nicely flows back – with the robust Connectivity layer enabling the true scaling of autonomous robots (from cars to drones) on Earth, to new Space-based Manufacturing capabilities creating novel Products for Earthly consumption, and more (save it for the Energy section).
But first, you have to get there… and be able to seamlessly communicate – AI helps connect the dots (operating system or ‘glue’), SpaceX (currently) helps build the Products.
To come full circle, these Technologies enable the creation of the aforementioned Golden Dome (and a lot more) – which would not be possible if left to the incumbents.
As a reminder, when NASA stranded astronauts in Space a few months ago. SpaceX rescued them.
This is both a testament to independent, First Principles Thinking. As well as the power of aligned incentives and free-flowing private markets. NASA – a government agency, riddled with regulations, bureaucracy, and misaligned incentives – is decades behind SpaceX in terms of Technology.
Private market capitalism paired with thoughtfully designed Public ‘common sense’ policy can help reduce friction, remove bottlenecks, and accelerate Innovation. We are seeing revived efforts in this sphere, most recently with the MP Materials and Department of Defense Public-Private Partnership to accelerate US rare earth magnet independence. This action mirrors the Semiconductors and Department of Defense programs from the 1950s, which established the leading Semiconductor Ecosystem the US has today.
Layer in the recent AI Action Plan, Big Tech CTOs joining the US Army, and Big Beautiful Bill AI R&D and Capex policy, and you begin to see there is an overarching Technology Strategy that’s becoming more visible.
‘Seed’ the Technology pie with aligned incentives to get it off the ground. Breed competition to drive innovation up and costs down. Unleash Productivity for the benefit of all. A tried and tested recipe – we’ll dive into this more in a future Innovation Acceleration piece.
Back to Space. SpaceX pioneered the current Space Revolution. The company's success demonstrates that even in the most technically challenging and capital-intensive industries, disruptive innovation can overcome established incumbents through superior Technology, innovative business models, and relentless focus on cost reduction. SpaceX proved that reusable rockets weren't just technically feasible but economically transformational, forcing an entire industry to abandon business models that had persisted for decades. It’s not all that surprising that SpaceX’s valuation recently doubled to $400B, double that of Boeing.
To make these Golden Dome ‘paper promises’ a reality, you need Technology. Just as the Strait of Hormuz is a key (Earth-bound) Chokepoint below, so is the (Space-bound) Moon above – as below, so above. Control of the Higher Ground is critical.
And the other Global Powers are not sitting still.
China has already built up an alternative critical Communications layer. From the Arctic piece:
“It’s no surprise that over the last decade, China has built up its own communication system and network – BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) – removing its reliance on the West and Western GPS/Navigation/Satellite Systems. Another reason why Xi and co feel more confident challenging the US hegemony.”
And China is taking a multi-pronged approach to attempt to compete with Starlink – with three major Satellite Internet constellations in progress (Qianfan, Guowang, and Honghu-3) across three companies, all effectively backed by the government. Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology (SSST) is in the process of scaling up the Qianfan (SpaceSail) constellation, the largest of the three, with an ambitious target of 15K+ satellites by 2030 – bringing the collective target for the three to ~40K satellites. In addition, the Chinese SpaceSail program is actively courting countries within the ‘East’ to expand its reach.
The actual Rocket Technology companies (i.e., the ones who launch and carry loads like satellites into Space) in China are similarly distributed – LandSpace Technology is the current leader, followed by others like iSpace and Cosmoleap. While they are all behind the vertically integrated SpaceX, they have the benefit of massive Productive capacity and central government support.
Not to be outdone, China is bringing AI Data Centers to Space. The Three-Body Computing Constellation is a space-based infrastructure of supercomputers, with a goal of using a constellation of 2,800 AI-enabled satellites in Space for edge computing.
“The constellation aims to harness unlimited solar power to power the satellites and to bypass the cooling effects demanded by earth-based data processing to perform astronomical observations. In this manner, it would rival the inefficiencies of advanced ground-based AI capabilities for applications such as super-fast edge computing, advanced AI processing, drone positioning, military and defense analytics, emergency situation control, and self-driving vehicles.”
The interconnection of AI and Space has never been clearer… And the importance of Allies in the New Frontier has never been more important.
Russia – equipped with significant Productive capacity (as well as domestic Energy to power it; classic Pillar inter-linking) – has thus far primarily played the role of stalker (with its Matryoshka Satellites) and chaos-creator in Space (‘intentionally’ creating disruptive and destructive debris, more than once), in an attempt to monitor and slow-down US efforts. The Matryosha Satellites are ‘named after Russian nesting dolls – concealing smaller satellites within them, capable of stalking, surveilling, and potentially attacking other satellites in orbit.’
The ultimate concern is nuclear weapons in Space, with speculation around Russian plans and rising risks noted by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte – the underlying impetus for the Golden Dome.
In response to all of this, the US is now ‘sharing intelligence on Russian and Chinese Space operations with its Five Eyes allies… (before) Space Delta 9, a unit specializing in Space warfare, operated primarily within the U.S. classified system.’ And Europe is (slowly) beginning to wake up (initiated by JD Vance) – now actively attempting to build their own Starlink.
There is a reason SpaceX has a separate secure Government Satellite Network: ‘Starshield leverages SpaceX's Starlink technology and launch capability to support national security efforts.’
The United States Space Force is not just a sub-par sitcom, but rather a serious team established for National Security purposes back in 2019 by the first Trump admin.
Along with the Arctic, Pippa labels Space as one of the key Fronts in a broader ‘hot war in cold places.’
The Scarcity mindset in Space is dangerous. With a Frontier of wide-open Opportunity staring at us, the shift toward Abundance must prevail. And there is more to Space than the Technology layer, it is a Frontier rich with…
ENERGY
Energy and Resources – all the Powers see it. And the ones without it on Earth (e.g., China), are even more driven to access it in Space – a ‘ticket’ to in-dependence.
This is part of the reason why China has pushed so hard in the Solar sphere. China recognizes the importance of the Sun. As does Elon, from our piece:
“Overall, Elon believes the Sun is the long-term solution to essentially infinite, cheap Energy – citing the Kardashev scale as the ‘simplistic’ support.”
And the closer you get to the Source, the potentially more efficient the Energy capture:
“And to get even closer to that source to potentially harness the Sun’s Energy more efficiently, start-ups are innovating (using SpaceX’s Starship reusable rocket Technology as an innovation trigger) to develop space-based-solar-power – essentially capturing the Sun’s Energy closer to the source, and beaming it back to Earth. Elon and co are not directly focused on this, but you could see how Tesla + SpaceX would be critical in enabling future advancements in this realm.”
Whether you beam it back to Earth or use it ‘locally’ in Space is a question of priority – most of the basic technicals of Space-based Solar have been proven. So much so that China has laid out plans to build the “Three Gorges Dam of Space” – a gigantic power station built in Space, to capture the Sun’s Energy and send it back for Earthly use (to start).
And Energy resources in Space don’t stop there. The Moon is rich in Helium-3 – from billions of years of solar wind bombardment – which is a key potential input to clean fusion Energy. Building Stars on Earth via nuclear fusion powered by (abundant) Helium-3 mined from the Moon is a wild inter-Spacial flywheel.
“The Sun is the source of Energy that enables Life on Earth, and it's essentially a massive nuclear fusion reactor.”
But wait, there’s more… Resources, beyond the Sun’s ‘live’ rays to the Moon’s ‘stored’ Sunshine. A notable area of interest is the Asteroid Psyche, which is said to house a broad swath of critical minerals – from gold, to iron ore and lithium – and is the target of NASA’s in-process Psyche Mission. These Resources happen to be critical inputs into the Battery Technology chain, which is critical to the Solar supply chain, which is critical to the future of Energy. And all of this together tends to be worth a lot of…
MONEY
Money. To explore a New Frontier, you need a lot of it. And the Asteroid Psyche’s estimated Resource value just-so-happens to clock in at… 10 Quintillion Dollars. But seriously. Hard to put into context, but equally distributed it would make everyone a billionaire.
Taken with a large grain of salt, this still does start to pry open that tightly clenched scarcity mindset – revealing the prospect for new Frontiers to actually offer Abundance.
And, as highlighted above, the US is all-in on Space. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act will fund the beginning of the Golden Dome (and more), and the Golden Dome Act for additional funding ($175B+ total current estimate) is already working its way through Congress.
SpaceX is in talks for another funding round (the ~30th) – and really they appear more Productive Capacity constrained, than Capital constrained.
Space is a (the?) National Security priority for every Global Power. Money is no Object in the Space sphere, at least for those who can print and back it.
And backing it all ties back to Technology, asymmetric Technology to be specific. We end where we began.
CONFLUENCE
The Space Frontier is the space of Technological Confluence – from 3D Printing to Humanoid Robots, from Quantum Computing to Drones – all tied together by the AI operating system (the ‘glue’).
The quest for Space ‘dominance’ is the mission for Control over the fundamental infrastructure that will govern the next era of Global Power.
And yet, few have even thought about Space since the epic 1969 Moon Landing. It all feels so intangible today. But, in the moment events like the Moon Landing spurred an incredible zeitgeist that moved the entire energy of Nations. A great unifier – something we desperately need today.
We are trying to recapture that competitive spirit today, with provocative shows like For All Mankind. And amazing feats like ‘catching’ a Rocket. (Re)Watch this and tell me you don’t feel it…
Space goes way beyond a tourist destination for the ultra-rich. It is a New Frontier analogous to the discovery of the New World, or the discovery of the West. We should absolutely treat it differently – with Balance, not exploitation. The Abundance opportunity is evident.
Space is the opportunity for a Mindset Shift (Expansion). Maybe it’s the catalyst. ‘Space-based solutions exist for Earth-bound problems.’ But how we frame it matters. Competitive scarcity shifting to collaborative abundance is the opportunity.
Non-Human Intelligence and New Science are out there (in here?). These discoveries challenge foundational collective beliefs, strongly protected by the ego. But maybe Space is the space required to revisit.
This piece provided the outlet to weave together many of our most prized areas of focus – from First Principles Thinking, to Sci-Fi, to Nature and Technology.
Imagination is underrated. Time to wake it up.
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'In summary, Control of Space = Control of Communications = Control of War = Control of Security. Control is Strength; Lack of Control (Dependence) is Weakness.'
Curious about the Golden Dome, UAPs, and 'magical' Technologies? The bucket of asymmetric Technologies is growing, but few are aware. (@DrPippa)
There is a reason The Technology Race is The Race to establish Power and control the Global World Order. The stakes are high. The opportunity is an expansion of Consciousness.
Read this, order your mind.
SpaceX's recent purchase of spectrum from Echostar is another signpost in the importance of Space and another asset in building toward Starlink's vision of full end-to-end communication layer control.
Within a few years, most legacy players in communications (e.g., telcos) will become obsolete. And the virtuous cycle vision of connected, autonomous robots will be one step closer with an upgraded underlying robust network/connectivity layer.
Both the commercial and military applications are quite clear...