PoP: US & The Trump Agenda

An Introduction & A Look at the Trump Agenda

INTRODUCTION

With the inaugural issue of Pillars of Power, we wanted to provide a quick overview of why we are publishing and help you understand if this is worthy of your invaluable time and attention.

We noticed a lot of friends, family, and otherwise seemed overwhelmed by the noise and rapid change in the World. We are no different; the Fourth Turning and the confluence of inflecting cycles are driving the most accelerated change in human history. Amidst the chaos, to organize our own minds, we built up a Framework (rooted in experience and studying history, and grounded in our Pillars of Power) and a Process that involves writing out our thoughts – ultimately to help improve our decision-making (everything from time to asset allocation). Given this Framework has been helpful for us in contextualizing events, making sense out of perceived chaos, and improving our decision quality, we figured we would begin to share it publicly.

Our goal with our writing remains to organize our own minds – if it is useful for us, maybe it will be useful for you. But we also love the idea of enabling broader awareness and understanding of what is going on in the World and more importantly, why – which will likely spur thoughtful dialogue and maybe empower a person or two. Hopefully this newsletter will help you:

• Order the chaotic external events into a Framework

• So you better understand why things are happening

• And how they all fit together

• So you don’t feel overwhelmed by the pace of change

• So you can make better, more confident decisions

• And save yourself Time, Energy, and Money

With uncertainty comes anxiety, which often drives inaction. Reducing that uncertainty (perceived disorder), even marginally, can be helpful in empowering you to regain control. This publication will not be explicitly internally focused (potential in the future), but rather focused on helping order the external.

We certainly do not have all of the answers. We do not know the exact path ahead. But we have extensively studied history and its cycles, and the embedded foundational Pillars of Power – which enables us to both visualize and prepare for the many potential paths ahead. So as events do occur, we can place them within a broader Framework – to distill signals from noise, and order the once disordered. Enabling us to be prepared and ready to act...

Formatting and whatnot may change depending on feedback (email at info@aquavisadvisors.com), but the base premise will be the same – helping you to contextualize external events within a consistent Framework to help order your mind amidst the increasing noise and rapid change.

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TOPIC: THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION’S AGENDA

This week we take a look at the overarching focus of the current Trump Administration’s agenda through the lens of the Pillars of Power.

TECHNOLOGY

Technology lies at the foundation of the Trump administration agenda. You see it with Elon Musk and DOGE – utilizing Technology to attempt to drive government efficiencies. You see it with Marc Andreessen, Peter Thiel, and David Sacks (the nation’s first AI czar) – guiding Technological policies and (de)regulation to drive productivity. And you saw it very clearly in Trump’s inaugural address, his early executive actions, and on full display in JD Vance’s speech at the AI Action Summit. It is crystal clear that the Trump administration wants the US to be THE unequivocal leader in Artificial Intelligence (AI; THE foundational Technology of our time). Why?

They understand that the Trump-proclaimed “Golden Age of America” is dependent upon leadership in all three of the Pillars of Power. And the Pillar of Power that requires (arguably) the most time, attention, and investment to continuously innovate and lead in is Technology. Military power is downstream of Technology. Asymmetric Technology is effective power signaling and deterrence – you’ve seen it countless times in history, from guns to submarines to nuclear weapons. When someone or something is clearly more powerful than you, typically you (eventually) back away.

DeepSeek was a wake-up call. A Sputnik-like moment. The launch timing of DeepSeek’s R-1 model on Trump’s inauguration day was no coincidence. It was an intentional power signal by China. This does not mean a kinetic war between the world’s two largest superpowers is imminent or inevitable. It is simply a signal – similar to Sputnik – that they understand the importance of asymmetric Technology and they are not sitting still. This further lends credence to the Pillars of Power Framework, which China at least intuitively understands. We will see what the Trump administration decides to do with Biden’s outgoing Technology export controls – targeted primarily at China and with a primary focus on AI. But the above provides context for the why.

On the economic front, given the debt (high) and demographic (low growth; ageing) backdrop in the US (topics for future pieces) productivity growth is critical. Technology enables productivity – another thing you’ve seen countless times in history, from the steam engine to the automobile to the Internet. If you cannot sustainably grow via increasing debt and/or working-age people, then productivity is the answer. Over the next decade, we believe AI will permeate all of society and be as foundational as the Internet – we’ll save this for a fun future discussion.

In summary, leadership in the current Technological Revolution, namely AI (and often called Industrial Revolution 4.0), kills at least 2 birds with 1 stone – National Security and Productivity. No birds were harmed in this publication.

With the why firmly in place, we’ll briefly touch on the how (deeper dive coming soon). To be a sustained leader in AI, let alone the leader, you need: Advanced Semiconductor IP and controlled manufacturing (i.e., local), Frontier Models/Algorithms (along with quality Data and Compute), and Transformational Applications (productive, value-creating use cases). Listen to JD Vance’s speech. Look at what the Biden administration was (at least partially) focused on with the CHIPS Act, et al. They all recognize – implicitly or explicitly – at least some of the elements required to maintain hegemonic power. And these are just a few of the reasons why reshoring critical manufacturing is at the top of the agenda, most notably Semiconductor manufacturing (TSMC/Intel news). Semiconductors are the key building block (along with Talent) – and today, the vast majority of the leading-edge chips are manufactured in Taiwan. But even with all of the above, you still need more…which leads nicely into our next Pillar of Power.

ENERGY

To power this Technological Revolution, you need reliable, abundant, low-cost Energy. This just-so-happens to also be a key ingredient in controlling inflation, enabling Industry (i.e., reshoring manufacturing), and boosting National Security. Another at least 4 birds, 1 stone type of deal here… unclear why birds were selected.

Hence, it’s not surprising that Energy Dominance sits atop the Trump agenda. During his inaugural address he declared a National Energy Emergency, followed by an executive order labeled – Unleashing American Energy. While subliminally he may also be hinting at unleashing the pent up energy of the people (another topic opportunity), the explicit focus is pretty clear – “drill baby drill.”

While Energy sounds simple, there is a lot that goes into this layer. A future deep-dive will get into the details, but the summary focus areas are Energy sources, transmission, and storage.

On the source side, the main Energy areas range from carbon (e.g., coal, oil) to nuclear to solar. Given its abundance in North America, we expect natural gas will be a key near-term source of focus – notably for powering AI-focused data centers. Nuclear is an important medium-term solution given its reliability, energy density, and relative cleanliness – we’re already seeing large cloud players moving quickly here. Given the immediacy of the need, the ramp up time for a nuclear reactor is a key constraint – however Technology (innovation) never sleeps, and small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) look promising. Finally, solar appears to be the long-term area of focus – which Elon Musk is particularly excited about given all forms of Energy do originate from the Sun.

Once you have all of the Energy in a usable form, the Transmission infrastructure is critical – and a key bottleneck today. Part of the aforementioned executive order specifically calls for improving the ‘integrity of our Nation’s electrical grid.’ This will be a long-term effort, supplemented by decentralized (another fun motif – or is it a theme – throughout our pieces) energy sources – like off-grid hyperscale data centers powered by self-contained natural gas pods and/or SMRs.

Storage is another key element and part of the reason why the executive order and broader agenda also calls out critical minerals as part of Energy. After a century+ of innovation, storing and utilizing the carbon-based Energy sources (e.g., coal, oil) is relatively straightforward – hence their widespread use in baseload power generation (‘we’ll keep the lights on for you’). However, battery storage Technologies for intermittent Energy sources like solar are still evolving and require a variety of critical minerals to build. As battery Technology improves, the viability of solar increases. Once again, notice the interconnectedness of the Pillars and the Technology feedback loop here…

A key part of Unleashing American Energy is the removal of regulation (deregulation – a theme across the Trump agenda) to reduce friction across all of these areas to accelerate Energy Dominance (inclusive of independence). JD Vance’s Munich Security speech specifically highlights the risks of over-regulation and external Energy dependence – in the last few years, Germany has shut down nuclear plants (in the name of ESG), lost access to Russian natural gas, and de-industrialized as a result. The Ukraine War and balance of Power in Europe is a topic for another day, but suffice to say that Energy is an important base layer for any society. We’ll need to monitor the extremes here – balance in Nature is key – but Technology can help reduce the environmental impact. Maybe RFK Jr’s upcoming policies around making soil healthy again can provide a counter-weight…

In sum, Energy is the base layer for Life. And it is pretty clear there is an entire ecosystem and end-to-end supply chain that is critical here – all of the pieces must be working in unison to achieve the desired outcome: abundant, low-cost, reliable Energy. But none of this is free...

MONEY

To finance this Technological Revolution and Energy Dominance, you need trusted, stable Money. We’ve seen a variety of efforts from the Trump camp to rebuild the integrity of the US Dollar system – from launching DOGE to increase government efficiency, to deregulation initiatives to cut spending, to the continued strong USD policy espoused by Scott Bessent (Secretary of Treasury). The more initially confusing areas – like the TRUMP coin launch, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, the use of Tariffs, the potential US Sovereign Wealth Fund, and the rising probability of a re-valuation of gold (Mar-a-Lago accord this Fall?) – all are pieces within this broader puzzle and fit into the larger Agenda purpose and plan, but the how is less obvious. We will dedicate specific pieces to address each of these.

In the meantime, the overarching focus is on utilizing Technology (along with some common sense) to reduce the Public (Government) creation of Money, and hand more of that Power back to the Private (Bank) sector. For the US Dollar to remain the World Reserve Currency, confidence and trust in the trajectory of the US broadly must be restored. For the US to finance all of the above, this is essential. And yes, we will get into the Triffin dilemma and how to restructure the global monetary system in a positive-sum way in a future Money deep-dive.

Money is stored Time and Energy. As we continue to drill down to basics (think sub-atomic level) and remove labels – Energy can harness ‘Technology’ (e.g., SMRs), Money can harness ‘Technology’ (e.g., Blockchain) – we realize ‘Technology’ can be simplified to any innovation that increases effectiveness and efficiency. Energy is the base layer for Life. Money is the base layer for Energy.

CONFLUENCE

The Trump administration has been fairly explicit in their goals for each Pillar, implicitly acknowledging the Power it enables. In a race to even maintain balance in an increasingly multi-polar world and ideally keep peace, they know asymmetric Technology is critical. Without abundant, low-cost, reliable Energy, there is no Technology (or any Industry). And without trusted, perceived sound, Money – there is nothing to finance Technology or Energy development. These three Pillars are all interconnected, and self-reinforcing – Technology must be powered by Energy, and financed by Money. The Confluence of leadership in all three is what drives true Power.

This is not meant to be political. It’s meant to be a realistic observation of what is actually happening. And a Framework to prepare for what might happen and most importantly – why. The Pillars of Power lay at the foundation of decisions made by people in (or seeking) Power around the World. Show me the incentives, and I’ll show you the outcome…

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Thanks for reading. If it was useful, share it. If it could be more useful – let me know how (info@aquavisadvisors.com). If you have any questions, comments, or want some resource suggestions to learn more – let me know.

Change your mindset – scarcity to growth. Let’s build a positive-sum world of abundance.

Order your Mind. Harness your Money. Shape your Future.