As this post highlights, the US under Trump is taking a 'ruthlessly realistic' view of the Power dynamics around the World, and quickly re-prioritizing efforts:
"The Trump administration recognizes China as the underlying “puppet master” of the ‘East’ and core opponent in this Power match. Hence, Trump and co would like to redirect all Energy to rebuild domestically and refocus any outward ‘containment’ efforts toward China..."
A positive byproduct is Europe is finally waking up... which should be a positive for multi-polar balance (i.e., Germany to finally help rebalance against Russia).
Highlighting how important Robotics (with embodied AI) will be to the Future of Power -- as it is an asymmetric nonlinear change in Labor cost (robotics = lowest cost structure). Leadership here, as laid out in the Pillars of Power pieces, will dictate Productive capacity and Power.
"China knew 10 years ago that these robots would be a force and doubled down again in 2023. This is not a question of ifs: China knows what comes next if they are first to unlock these robots, they will iterate faster than the US, they will subsidize the industry to an unprecedented extent, they will achieve massive economies of scale and oversupply all global markets, and the general purpose robotics boom will be nothing but a bad dream for the US if nothing changes. The US must take part in the robotics revolution before all labor is handed over to China to own in perpetuity."
In general, people ‘choose’ not to see China’s rise because it’s inconvenient.
The issue stems from the foundational incentive system and related time horizon.
The US (public and private) has been run by Boomers with shorter and shorter horizons as they age. And an incentive system that has generally rewarded that short termism. The focus has been on enriching the ‘self.’ With very little thought to the collective (i.e., Nation or its Security).
China has been run by an authoritarian with a very long time horizon and an overarching goal of making China great again.
As this post highlights, the US under Trump is taking a 'ruthlessly realistic' view of the Power dynamics around the World, and quickly re-prioritizing efforts:
"The Trump administration recognizes China as the underlying “puppet master” of the ‘East’ and core opponent in this Power match. Hence, Trump and co would like to redirect all Energy to rebuild domestically and refocus any outward ‘containment’ efforts toward China..."
This foots with a recent interview from Niall Ferguson (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnDEDhYhkbM)
As well as Velina Tchakarova's view (and ours as well) of rising risks of an escalation in the South China Sea (https://x.com/vtchakarova/status/1895890262771319142)
A positive byproduct is Europe is finally waking up... which should be a positive for multi-polar balance (i.e., Germany to finally help rebalance against Russia).
Great piece about Robotics by SemiAnalysis.
Highlighting how important Robotics (with embodied AI) will be to the Future of Power -- as it is an asymmetric nonlinear change in Labor cost (robotics = lowest cost structure). Leadership here, as laid out in the Pillars of Power pieces, will dictate Productive capacity and Power.
https://semianalysis.com/2025/03/11/america-is-missing-the-new-labor-economy-robotics-part-1/
"China knew 10 years ago that these robots would be a force and doubled down again in 2023. This is not a question of ifs: China knows what comes next if they are first to unlock these robots, they will iterate faster than the US, they will subsidize the industry to an unprecedented extent, they will achieve massive economies of scale and oversupply all global markets, and the general purpose robotics boom will be nothing but a bad dream for the US if nothing changes. The US must take part in the robotics revolution before all labor is handed over to China to own in perpetuity."
In general, people ‘choose’ not to see China’s rise because it’s inconvenient.
The issue stems from the foundational incentive system and related time horizon.
The US (public and private) has been run by Boomers with shorter and shorter horizons as they age. And an incentive system that has generally rewarded that short termism. The focus has been on enriching the ‘self.’ With very little thought to the collective (i.e., Nation or its Security).
China has been run by an authoritarian with a very long time horizon and an overarching goal of making China great again.